鉴于化石能源的不可再生性，其全球储量日益减少，光伏发电技术在经济性和可持续性方面展现出显著竞争力。加快构建以光伏等可再生能源为主体的新型电力系统，已成为我国能源战略转型的重要方向。分布式光伏发电项目作为光伏发电的重要组成部分，因其高灵活性和快速安装的优点而受到电力投资方的广泛关注。然而，从项目规划建设到并网运行的全过程，普遍存在各类风险因素，对项目预期收益构成显著影响。因此，如何系统辨识相关风险，并针对核心风险实施科学管控，以保障风险水平处于可控范围，进而推动分布式光伏电站的顺利建设与运营，是当前我国该行业发展亟需解决的问题。

本文采用文献综述方法，对分布式光伏发电项目投资风险管理领域的国内外研究成果进行了全面梳理。基于文献研究法的初步分析，研究识别出分布式光伏发电项目存在的潜在投资风险要素，并进一步通过专家咨询法和访谈法，最终确定了包含技术风险、经济风险、自然环境风险、管理风险、市场风险和政策风险等6个维度的31项具体风险指标，从而建立了完整的分布式光伏发电项目投资风险指标体系。采用层次分析法（AHP）与模糊综合评价法（FCE）相结合的方式，运用AHP方法计算各层级风险指标的权重系数，继而构建基于模糊综合评价理论的风险评估模型，为验证模型的实用性，研究选取NH分布式光伏发电项目作为案例，建立模糊判断矩阵，最终量化评估出该项目的整体投资风险水平。基于评估结果，研究针对关键风险因素提出了具有可操作性的风险管控方案，进而降低项目投资风险。

本文通过建立分布式光伏发电项目的系统化投资风险评估框架，并结合具体案例进行实证分析，不仅验证了所构建模型的适用性，还提出了有针对性的风险管理对策。该研究成果对于提高类似分布式光伏发电项目的投资风险识别效率、降低项目投资风险、提升投资决策科学性具有借鉴意义。

 Given the non renewability of fossil fuels and their decreasing global reserves, photovoltaic power generation technology has demonstrated significant competitiveness in terms of economy and sustainability. Accelerating the construction of a new power system dominated by renewable energy such as photovoltaics has become an important direction for China's energy strategic transformation. Distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, as an important component of photovoltaic power generation, have attracted widespread attention from power investors due to their high flexibility and fast installation advantages. However, there are various risk factors throughout the entire process from project planning and construction to grid connected operation, which have a significant impact on the expected returns of the project. Therefore, how to systematically identify relevant risks and implement scientific control measures for core risks to ensure that the risk level is within a controllable range, and thus promote the smooth construction and operation of distributed photovoltaic power plants, is an urgent problem that needs to be solved for the development of this industry in China.

This article adopts a literature review method to comprehensively review the research results in the field of investment risk management for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects at home and abroad. Based on the literature research method, a preliminary analysis was conducted to identify potential investment risk factors in distributed photovoltaic power generation projects. Furthermore, through expert consultation and interview methods, 31 specific risk indicators were determined, including six dimensions: technical risk, economic risk, natural environment risk, management risk, market risk, and policy risk. As a result, a complete investment risk indicator system for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects was established. By combining Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE), the weight coefficients of risk indicators at each level are calculated using the AHP method. Then, a risk assessment model based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory is constructed. To verify the practicality of the model, the NH distributed photovoltaic power generation project is selected as a case study, and a fuzzy judgment matrix is established to quantitatively evaluate the overall investment risk level of the project. Based on the evaluation results, a feasible risk management plan has been proposed for key risk factors to reduce project investment risks.

This article establishes a systematic investment risk assessment framework for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects and conducts empirical analysis with specific cases. It not only verifies the applicability of the constructed model, but also proposes targeted risk management strategies. This research result has reference significance for improving the efficiency of investment risk identification for similar distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, reducing project investment risks, and enhancing the scientificity of investment decisions.

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