化工园区已逐渐成为推动区域经济快速增长的重要支撑与引领行业发展的主导模式，在促进国民经济快速发展的同时，化工园区事故灾难时有发生，由于其产业结构密集性，易引发多米诺效应，造成恶劣的社会影响。为降低事故灾难发生概率与后果，化工园区需具备面向事故灾难的应急能力，如何准确评估与高效提升应急能力便显得尤为重要。因此，本文提出化工园区事故灾难应急能力评估方法——通过构建评估指标体系与数学模型，定量评估化工园区应急能力，确定其应急能力薄弱环节与提升路径，对于加强化工园区应急管理水平具有重要意义。

首先，通过绘制事故轨迹交叉致因图与事故应急过程因果环路图，掌握化工园区事故灾难共性特征与应对规律；基于“应急管理-安全系统”视角，确定化工园区事故灾难应急能力研究思路；通过多维视角与影响因素层间关系，构建化工园区事故灾难应急能力“时间-空间-对象”三维结构模型；结合事故灾难共性特征与应急结构模型，构建化工园区事故灾难应急能力评估指标体系，确定指标概念与内涵。

其次，通过对多种评估模型优劣分析，优选确定各评估阶段的评估模型。基于群组AHP评价与可信度理论构建动静结合的主观权重确定方法，运用BP神经网络算法检验赋值数据并实现客观权重计算，采用线性功效系数法计算主客观组合权重作为评估模型的最终权重；将基础指标赋值数据与最终权重进行加权计算，确定化工园区应急能力等级与评估分值，运用TOPSIS方法分析探寻化工园区事故灾难应急能力改进的最优路径。

最后，通过分析陕西省某市6个化工园区“应急能力成熟度”与对照组“一体化安全管理与应急救援”的相关性，计算得出线性相关系数r_xy=0.7869，说明二者显著相关，验证了评估方法的科学性。基于论文评估方法，运用Visual Basic与MATLAB编译环境开发了化工园区事故灾难应急能力成熟度评估软件，为化工园区应急能力成熟度判定与改进路径设计提供了软件技术支撑，实现了化工园区事故灾难应急能力评估过程自动化与结果可视化。

Chemical parks have gradually become an important support for rapid regional economic growth and a leading mode of industry development. While promoting rapid national economic development, accident disasters occur in chemical parks from time to time, and due to their dense industrial structure, they are prone to the domino effect, causing bad social impacts. In order to reduce the probability and consequences of accident disasters, chemical parks need to have emergency capabilities for accident disasters, and it is particularly important to accurately assess and efficiently improve emergency capabilities. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to assess the emergency capability of chemical parks,by constructing an assessment index system and mathematical model, we quantitatively assess the emergency response capability of chemical parks and determine the weaknesses and optimal improvement paths of the emergency capability, which is important to improve the emergency management of chemical parks.

Firstly, by drawing the cross-cause diagram of accident trajectory and the causal loop diagram of accident emergency process, we can grasp the common characteristics and response rules of accident disasters in chemical parks; based on the perspective of "emergency management-safety system", we can determine the research idea of accident disasters emergency response capability in chemical parks; through the multidimensional perspective and the inter-layer relationship of influencing factors, we can construct the three-dimensional structure model of "time-space-object" of accident disasters emergency capability in chemical parks; by combining the common characteristics of accident disasters and emergency response structure model, we can construct the evaluation index system of accident disasters emergency capability in chemical parks and determine the concept and connotation of index.

Secondly, the evaluation model for each evaluation stage is preferably determined by analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of multiple evaluation models. Based on the group AHP evaluation and credibility theory, we construct a subjective weight determination method that combines dynamic and static, use BP neural network algorithm to examine the assigned data and realize objective weight calculation, and use the linear efficacy coefficient method to calculate the combined subjective and objective weights as the final weights of the assessment model; weight the assigned data of the basic indexes and the final weights to determine the emergency response capability level and assessment score of the chemical park, and use the The TOPSIS method was used to analyze and explore the optimal path to improve the emergency response capability of chemical parks.

Finally, by analyzing the correlation between the "emergency capability maturity" score and the "integrated safety management and emergency rescue" of the control group in six chemical parks in a city of Shaanxi Province, the linear correlation coefficient was calculated (r_xy=0.7869), indicating that the both were significantly correlated. The scientific validity of the assessment method was verified. Based on the evaluation method of the thesis, the software for assessing the maturity of the emergency capability of chemical parks was developed using Visual Basic and MATLAB compilation environment, which provides software technical support for the determination of the maturity of the emergency capability of chemical parks and the design of improvement paths, and realizes the automation of the process and visualization of the results of the evaluation of the emergency capability of chemical parks.

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