隔水土层作为榆神矿区潜水含水层的关键阻隔层，其稳定性对于矿区煤炭绿色安全开采具有重要意义。煤层开采过程中，覆岩移动变形产生的裂缝是影响隔水土层稳定性的主要因素。主关键层对隔水土层的移动变形起控制作用，当主关键层位于采动覆岩三带的不同位置时，隔水土层采动裂缝将呈现出不同的发育规律。论文围绕榆神矿区主关键层位置对隔水土层采动裂缝演化的影响机理开展研究，成果可为榆神矿区隔水土层采动裂缝安全调控措施的制定提供理论依据。论文研究内容及结论如下：

（1）根据榆神矿区砂土基型地层赋存特征，将主关键层按在采动覆岩三带不同位置分为三种工况（即主关键层分别位于冒落带、裂缝带和弯曲下沉带）开展研究。采用XRD矿物成分测试和正交配比实验，给出了隔水土层的合理相似材料配比，并自主设计了一种螺旋升降装置机构以提高相似模拟实验精度。实验结果表明，随主关键层位置由冒落带逐渐转移至弯曲下沉带，初次来压步距降低37.5~50.0%，周期来压步距增加25.0~33.3%，破断角减小10.62%~25.25%。导水裂缝带分别呈“多梯形”、“非对称梯形”和“马鞍形”分布特征。同时，结合弹性薄板理论，建立了主关键层的采动覆岩三带位置判断依据。

（2）基于极限曲率变形和极限拉伸变形，分别建立了上行裂缝发育高度和下行拉伸裂缝发育深度的计算式。当隔水土层采动曲率变形的下降速率高于极限曲率变形的下降速率时，上行裂缝发育止于隔水土层内部；反之，裂缝将贯穿隔水土层。当隔水土层采动水平拉伸变形的增加速率低于极限水平拉伸变形的增加速率时，下行拉伸裂缝尖灭于隔水土层内部；反之，裂缝将贯穿隔水土层。通过隔水土层的极限曲率变形和极限拉伸变形判定其采动裂缝发育高度时，理论预计结果与实验结果的偏差为2.33~6.74%。

（3）不同采动地质因素对主关键层位置和稳定性的影响较大，是隔水土层呈现不同的移动变形和裂缝发育规律的本质原因。数值计算结果显示，隔水土层移动变形及其裂缝发育高度，与开采距离和开采高度呈正相关，与主关键层下方岩层厚度及下方软硬岩层厚度比呈负相关，隔水土层的曲率变形和上行裂缝发育高度与其厚度呈正相关。而隔水土层的水平变形和下行裂缝发育深度则随其厚度增加，呈先增后减的变化趋势。主关键层位于裂缝带时，不同因素对采动裂缝发育的影响程度顺序为开采高度＞隔水土层厚度＞主关键层下方岩层厚度＞主关键层下方软硬岩层厚度比。主关键层位于弯曲下沉带时，不同因素对采动下行裂缝发育的影响程度顺序为开采高度＞主关键层下方岩层厚度＞隔水土层厚度＞主关键层下方软硬岩层厚度比。

（4）基于概率积分移动变形预计原理，构建了隔水土层移动变形预计模型。引入概率积分参数影响指数n_η、n_b、n_d和n_r，给出了主关键层不同位置隔水土层概率积分预计参数的表达式，开发了隔水土层移动变形预计软件。结合主关键层位置、隔水土层移动变形预计和隔水土层采动裂缝预测理论，提出了主关键层的采动覆岩三带位置判定方法，建立了不同采动地质条件下隔水土层的极限曲率变形计算式，最终构建了基于主关键层位置的隔水土层采动裂缝发育高度数学预测模型。

（5）主关键层位于冒落带或裂缝带（结构失稳），隔水土层的正曲率变形超过其极限曲率变形，是隔水土层产生剪切破坏的根本原因。主关键层位于裂缝带（结构稳定），当开采高度和隔水土层厚度减小，主关键层下方岩层厚度和主关键层下方软硬岩层厚度比增加，隔水土层的正曲率变形和拉伸变形下降，移动变形的下降速率相较于极限变形的下降速率逐渐增加，导致其采动裂缝发育高度逐渐减弱。主关键层位于弯曲下沉带，当开采高度减小，主关键层下方基岩厚度和主关键层下方软硬岩层厚度比增加，隔水土层拉伸变形减小，拉伸变形的增加速率相较于极限拉伸变形的增加速率逐渐降低，导致采动下行裂缝发育深度逐渐减弱。隔水土层表面采动拉伸变形和下行拉伸裂缝发育深度，随其厚度增加均呈先增后减的变化趋势。

（6）以小保当煤矿二号井XE6钻孔地层为研究地层，隔水土层采动裂缝的理论预计高度和深度分别为207.9 m和15.0 m，隔水土层存在失稳风险。论文提出工作面整体限高结合局部限高的开采措施，对隔水土层的采动裂缝发育高度进行调控，隔水土层正曲率变形和拉伸变形最大值预计减小12.2%和18.4%，裂缝发育高度和发育深度分别降低6.5%和46.0%。理论预计结果与实验和现场实测结果的吻合度达到92.59~97.84%，满足工程需求。经红土水理化测试、水位监测和抽水实验验证，采用调控措施后，隔水土层的稳定性提高，能实现潜水含水层的水资源保护。

As the main barrier of the phreatic aquifer in the Yushen mining area, the stability of the clay aquiclude is of great importance for the environmental and safe mining of coal in the mining area. In the process of coal seam mining, fractures caused by overlying strata movement and deformation are the main factors affecting the stability of clay aquiclude. Since the main key stratum in the overlying strata controls the movement and deformation of the clay aquiclude, the clay aquiclude will show different laws of fracture development if the main key stratum is located at different positions in the three zones of mining overlying strata. In this paper, the influence mechanism of the position of the main key stratum on the development of mining fractures in the clay aquiclude in the Yushen mining area is systematically studied, and the relevant results could provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of safety control measures for mining fractures in the clay aquiclude in the Yushen mining area. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:

(1) According to the overlying characteristics of sand-soil-rock in Yushen mining area, the positions of main key stratum in the three zones of mining overburden are divided into three types, namely, the main key stratum are located in caving zone, fractured zone and bending subsidence zone respectively. By XRD mineral composition test and orthogonal proportion experiment, the reasonable proportion of clay aquiclude is given, and a spiral lifting device mechanism is independently designed to improve the accuracy of similar simulation experiments. The experimental results show that with the position of main key stratum gradually shifting from caving zone to bending subsidence zone, the initial weighting step of overlying strata decreases by 37.5~50.0%, the periodic weighting step increases by 25.0~33.3%, and the fracture angle decreases by 10.62~25.25%. The water-conducting fractured zones are distributed in “multi-trapezoidal”, “asymmetric trapezoidal” and “saddle-shaped”, respectively. Based on this, combined with the elastic thin plate theory, the judgment basis of the position of the main key stratum is established.

(2) Based on the ultimate curvature deformation and ultimate tensile deformation, the calculation formulas for the development height of upward fractures and the development depth of downward tensile fractures are established respectively. When the mining-induced curvature deformation rate of the clay aquiclude is higher than the limit curvature deformation rate, the upward fractures develop inside the clay aquiclude. On the contrary, the fractures will run through the clay aquiclude. When the increase rate of mining horizontal tensile deformation of clay aquiclude is lower than the limit horizontal tensile deformation increase rate, the downward tensile fracture is pinched out inside the clay aquiclude. On the contrary, the fractures will run through the clay aquiclude. When the development degree of mining-induced fracture is determined by the ultimate curvature deformation and ultimate tensile deformation of the clay aquiclude, the deviation between the theoretical prediction results and the experimental results is 2.33 ~ 6.74 %.

(3) The different influence of different mining geological factors on the position and stability of the main key stratum is the essential reason for the different movement, deformation and fractures development law of the clay aquiclude. The numerical calculation results show that the movement and deformation of the clay aquiclude and the degree of fractures development are positively correlated with the mining distance and mining height, while negatively correlated with the thickness of the rock layer below the main key stratum and the thickness ratio of the soft and hard rock layer below it. The curvature deformation of the clay aquiclude and the development height of the upward fractures are positively correlated with its thickness, while the horizontal deformation of the clay aquiclude and the development depth of the downward fractures increase with its thickness, showing a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. When the main key stratum is located in the fractured zone, the influence degree of different factors on the development of mining-induced fractures is in the order of mining height > aquifuge thickness > rock thickness below the main key stratum > soft and hard rock thickness ratio below the main key stratum. When the main key stratum is located in the bending subsidence zone, the influence degree of different factors on the development of mining-induced downward fractures is in the order of mining height > thickness of rock stratum under the main key stratum > thickness of clay aquiclude > thickness ratio of soft and hard rock stratum under the main key stratum.

(4) Based on the prediction principle of probability integral movement deformation, the prediction model of movement deformation of clay aquifuge is constructed. The influence indexes of probability integral parameters n_η, n_b, n_d, and n_r are introduced, and the expressions of probability integral prediction parameters of clay aquifuge at different positions of the main key stratum are given. On this basis, a software for predicting the movement and deformation of clay aquifuge is developed. This study combines the location of the main key stratum, the movement and deformation of the clay aquiclude and the prediction theory of mining-induced fractures in the clay aquiclude. A method for determining the three-zone position of the mining overburden in the main key stratum is proposed. The deformation calculation formula of the limit curvature of the aquiclude under different mining geological conditions is established. Based on the position of the main key stratum, a mathematical prediction model for the development degree of mining-induced fractures in clay aquiclude is finally constructed.

(5) When the main key stratum is located in the caving zone or the fractured zone (structural instability), the positive curvature deformation of the clay aquiclude exceeds its limit curvature deformation, which is the root cause of the shear failure of the clay aquiclude. When the main key stratum is located in the fractured zone ( structural stability ), and when the mining height and the thickness of the clay aquiclude decrease, and the thickness of the strata under the main key stratum and the thickness ratio of the soft and hard rock strata under the main key stratum increase, the positive curvature deformation and tensile deformation of the clay aquiclude decrease, and the decrease rate of the moving deformation gradually increases compared with the decrease rate of the limit deformation, resulting in the gradual weakening of the development degree of the mining fractures. When the main key stratum is located in the bending subsidence zone, when the mining height decreases, and the thickness of the strata under the main key stratum and the thickness ratio of the soft and hard rock strata under the main key stratum increase, the tensile deformation of the clay aquiclude decreases, and the increase rate of tensile deformation gradually decreases compared with the increase rate of ultimate tensile deformation, resulting in the gradual weakening of the depth of fractures development under mining. The development depth of mining tensile deformation and downward tensile fractures on the surface of clay aquiclude increases first and then decreases with the increase of its thickness.

(6) Taking the XE6 borehole stratigraphy of No.2 well in Xiaobaodang Coal Mine as the engineering background, the theoretical prediction height and depth of mining-induced fractures in clay aquiclude are 207.9 m and 15.0 m respectively, and there is a risk of instability in clay aquiclude.  Therefore, the mining measures of the overall height limit of the working face combined with the local height limit are proposed to regulate the development degree of mining-induced fractures in clay aquiclude. The maximum values of positive curvature deformation and tensile deformation of the clay aquiclude are expected to decrease by 12.2 % and 18.4 %, respectively, and the development height and depth of fractures are reduced by 6.5 % and 46.0 %, respectively. The agreement between the theoretical prediction results and the experimental and field measurement results reaches 92.59 ~ 97.84 %, which meets the engineering requirements. Through the physical and chemical test of laterite water, water level monitoring and pumping test, it is verified that the stability of clay aquiclude is high after measures adopted, which can realize the water resources protection of the phreatic aquifer.

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