近年来，为了进一步提升消费水平，推动绿色循环经济发展，商务部等14部门联合发布了《推动消费品以旧换新行动方案》，旨在通过政策引导促进消费品的更新换代，减少资源浪费和环境污染。随着全国汽车以旧换新补贴申请量的激增，消费品以旧换新的市场规模持续扩大，政策效果显著。这一趋势不仅促进了消费市场的回暖，还为再生资源产业的进一步发展提供了重要契机。在此背景下，S市计划建造再生资源产业园，提升资源的高效再利用。然而基于项目全生命周期视角，S市再生资源产业园在决策、设计、施工及竣工验收等阶段，均面临很大的风险，一旦某个环节出现问题，在一定程度上会对S市再生资源产业园建设项目的顺利建设造成巨大困难。因此，研究S市再生资源产业园项目风险管理就显得尤为重要。

本文以S市再生资源产业园建设项目为研究对象，系统开展了风险管理研究。研究过程主要包括风险识别、风险评价和风险应对三个阶段。在风险识别阶段，通过头脑风暴和德尔菲法最终确定涵盖项目投资决策、设计、施工及竣工验收四大阶段的12项关键风险因素，并对其成因及表现形式进行了深入分析。在风险评价阶段，基于已识别的风险因素清单与风险评价原则，构建了适用于S市再生资源产业园建设项目的风险评价指标体系；随后引入层次分析法（AHP）和模糊综合评价方法，获得模糊综合评价结果和评价值，从而准确判定该项目整体及各阶段的风险等级。评价结果显示：项目整体处于较高风险，其中投资决策阶段和施工阶段属于较高风险，设计阶段为低风险，而竣工验收阶段则为较低风险。此外，通过融合量化分析结果与实际工程经验，对各类风险因素进行了分级分类管理，以便合理调配人力与资源实现高效风险管控。

针对上述研究成果，在风险应对阶段分别对应不同实施阶段的关键风险点提出了具体控制对策：投资决策阶段应重点关注政策变动、资金筹措机制完善以及选址科学性优化；设计阶段需强化对勘察设计单位资质审查和技术方案可行性论证；施工阶段须着力解决外部干扰因素影响与安全生产保障问题；竣工验收阶段则要细化工作流程安排，明确各方职责分工及时限要求。本研究成果不仅有助于S市探索适合本地特色的再生资源产业发展模式，推动区域循环经济体系建设，也为国内其他地区类似项目的规划建设和运营提供了可复制推广的经验参考。

In recent years, in order to further enhance the level of consumption and promote the development of a green and circular economy, the Ministry of Commerce and 14 other departments jointly issued the Action Programme for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods, aiming to promote the replacement of consumer goods through policy guidance and to reduce resource waste and environmental pollution. With the surge in the number of applications for the national automobile trade-in subsidy, the market scale of consumer goods trade-in has continued to expand, and the effect of the policy has been remarkable. This trend not only promotes the rebound of the consumer market, but also provides an important opportunity for the further development of the recycling industry. Against this background, City S plans to build a renewable resources industrial park to enhance the efficient reuse of resources. However, based on the full life cycle perspective of the project, the renewable resources industrial park in S city faces great risks in the phases of decision-making, design, construction and completion and acceptance, and once a problem occurs in one of the links, it will, to a certain extent, cause great difficulties to the smooth construction of the renewable resources industrial park construction project in S city. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the risk management of S city renewable resources industrial park project.

This paper takes the S City Recycling Resources Industrial Park Construction Project as the research object and systematically conducts risk management research. The research process mainly includes three stages: risk identification, risk assessment, and risk response. In the risk identification stage, through brainstorming and the Delphi method, 12 key risk factors covering the four major stages of project investment decision-making, design, construction, and completion acceptance were ultimately determined, and their causes and manifestations were analyzed in depth. In the risk assessment stage, based on the identified risk factor list and risk assessment principles, a risk assessment index system suitable for the S City Recycling Resources Industrial Park Construction Project was constructed; then, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were introduced to obtain the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results and evaluation values, thereby accurately determining the overall and stage risk levels of the project. The evaluation results show that the project as a whole is at a relatively high risk level, among which the investment decision-making stage and construction stage are at a relatively high risk level, the design stage is at a low risk level, and the completion acceptance stage is at a relatively low risk level. In addition, by integrating the quantitative analysis results with actual engineering experience, various risk factors were classified and managed at different levels to rationally allocate human resources and resources for efficient risk control.

Based on the above research results, specific control countermeasures are proposed in the risk response phase to address the key risk points in different implementation stages: the investment decision-making phase should focus on policy changes, improvement of the funding mechanism and optimisation of the scientific nature of the site selection; the design phase needs to strengthen the qualification review of the survey and design units and the feasibility demonstration of the technical solutions; the construction phase should focus on solving the impact of external disturbances and the safety and security issues; and the completion and acceptance phase should focus on resolving the impact of external disturbances and the safety and security issues. In the construction phase, the influence of external disturbances and production safety should be solved; in the completion and acceptance phase, the workflow arrangement should be refined, and the responsibilities of all parties should be clearly defined and the time limit should be set. The results of this research not only help City S to explore the development mode of renewable resources industry suitable for local characteristics and promote the construction of regional circular economy system, but also provide replicable experience for the planning, construction and operation of similar projects in other regions of China.

[1]河北畅通再生资源回收末端循环.[N]人民日报,2024-7-9(7).

[2]李昌禹.建立新能源产业再生资源回收利用体系（人民政协新实践）[N].人民日报,2023-12-7(18).

[3]资产循环增效益专业服务提效能——中再生助力中央行政事业单位公物仓建设[J].中国机关后勤,2024,(10):24-25.

[4]苏静,涂胜胜,肖攀.村规民约、村干部信任与农户可再生资源利用行为——以秸秆资源化利用为例[J].南京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2024,23(04):69-84+114.

[5]Jie W ,Khan R .Breaking the CO2 Gridlock: Can Renewables Lead the Way for the OECD?[J]. Energies,2024,17(17):4511-4511.

[6]李玉霞,陈文郁.互联网+背景下再生资源回收利用生态体系构建研究[J].西部财会,2020,(01):74-77.

[7]程晨，付文等.“再生资源行业未来一定会更好”（锚定现代化 改革再深化）[N].人民日报，2024-7-28(1).

[8]葛有兴.整合视角下的供应链风险管理[J].中国储运,2024,(09):101.

[9]曾宝莹.工程项目合同风险管理[J].价值工程,2024,43(33):16-19.

[10]朱益辰,魏志明,刘豪,等.基于故障树分析法的某控制系统故障与可靠性研究[J].现代电子技术,2024,47(22):1-6.

[11]李荣强,曹德舜,庄腾宇.故障树分析法在安全完整性等级计算中的应用[J].安全、健康和环境,2012,12(10):20-22.

[12]Zhou X ,Hui C ,Robinson D , et al.Accelerated kinetic Monte Carlo method for simulations of helium bubble formation in metals[J].Journal of Computational Physics,2025,523113666-113666.

[13]罗思雅,杨国栋,陈浪,等. 基于蒙特卡罗模拟的工业遗留地块土壤重金属健康风险评价[J]. 有色金属(中英文), 2025, 15 (02): 325-334.

[14]Sylwia P .Key Success Factors of Enterprise Risk Management Systems: Listed Polish Companies[J].Central European Management Journal,2022,30(1):91-114.

[15]Christopher B .Exploring Enterprise-Wide Risk Management System in Higher Education[J].Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy,2023,11(3):267-285.

[16]王晓康,周蕊,张佳琦,等.新巴塞尔协议Ⅲ市场风险标准法实施对商业银行的影响研究[J].北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版),2023,25(05):63-74.

[17]Fotini E ,Yannis P .Assessing the credit creation process under the Basel III framework: Some evidence from the Eurozone[J].Finance Research Letters,2023,51.

[18]阮琦,李雪.火力发电企业全面风险管理体系整合实践研究——以C电厂为例[J].企业改革与管理,2024,(20):35-37.

[19]陈菡.资金风险管控与金融资源配置协同——基于六家中央企业境外资金管理的创新实践研究[J].管理会计研究,2024,(05):19-29.

[20]余文.司库管理在风险管理中的应用与实践[J].财经界,2024,(26):81-83.

[21]王新源.Z商业银行并购贷款风险识别与评估模型构建[D].天津工业大学,2019.

[22]王晓娟,张瑞,曹雨晴,等.基于德尔菲法和层次分析法构建外科药学风险管理指标体系[J].医药导报,2025,44(05):823-828.

[23]陈玉婷.基于大数据技术的企业风险管理研究[J].中国管理信息化,2024,27(06):75-77.

[24]周佳妮.A公司实施智能财务的风险识别与评估研究[D].绍兴文理学院,2023.

[25]陈思静.新零售企业的重大错报风险识别与评估[D].西南财经大学,2022.

[26]徐珂璠.农业区水环境非点源潜在污染风险评价方法研究[J].环境科学与管理,2025,50(05):190-194.

[27]贺卉珍.基于大数据分析的信息科技风险管理[J].中国金融电脑,2019,(02):65-69.

[28]李金红.工程管理中的项目风险评估与应对策略[J].城市建设理论研究(电子版),2024,(07):67-69.

[29]杨韬,刘曦泽,高红静.数据安全风险评估方法和实践应用研究[J].保密科学技术,2023,(07):9-15.

[30]孙文,李珍,陈佳林,等.基于德尔菲法的突发重大传染病社区韧性评价指标体系[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2025,36(02):6-11.

[31]孙正宇,毛世华,李世友,等.多维度的森林防火应急道路综合评价体系研究[J].消防科学与技术,2025,44(02):270-275.

[32]章秀,刘宝旭,龚晓锐,等.建立渗透测试型人才能力评估的综合评价模型[J].信息安全学报,2024,9(06):172-207.

[33]孟思雨.基于SWOT-PEST模型的建筑企业投融资策略研究[J].投资与创业,2025,36(08):7-9.

[34]张会萍,闫海磊,张毅,等.基于SWOT分析法的宝天曼森林康养产业发展策略研究[J].绿色科技,2025,27(07):114-118.

[35]Abdoos M ,Yousefi H ,Shahee A .Green hydrogen development in Iran: a SWOT analysis of challenges and opportunities focusing on renewable energy resources[J].Discover Sustainability,2025,6(1):435-435.

[36]侯世谨,徐俊祥,李旭,等.多周期注采地下盐穴储气库地表沉降影响因素与失效概率分析[J].科技和产业,2025,25(09):7-15.

[37]陆远.基于故障树分析法的医疗器械故障远程监测方法[J/OL].自动化技术与应用,1-5[2025-06-04].

[38]Khaled A ,Maryam B ,Ehab S , et al.Enhancing Claims Management in the Construction Industry Using Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction,2025,17(3):04525038.

[39]Barbosa S R C ,Vedana A L ,Belladona R , et al.Assessing groundwater recharge potential in the Sergipe River Basin using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)[J].Journal of South American Earth Sciences,2025,162105595-105595.

[40]Shengwei G ,Hua W ,Feng L , et al.Evaluation metrics system of offshore wind power projects based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy,2025,1-8.

[41]孟令航,武春雁,乔雷章,等.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的无人机地面风险缓冲区确定方法[J].科学技术与工程,2025,25(03):1290-1297.

[42]韩立会,张华阳,衷斌,等.NPTS程序质子输运蒙特卡罗模拟方法研究[J].原子能科学技术,2023,57(07):1281-1291.

[43]冯登,曹洪伟,祝东,等.融合N–K模型与动态贝叶斯网络的燃气管网耦合风险评估[J/OL].安全与环境学报,1-10[2025-06-04].

[44]施昊彤.基于蝴蝶结-贝叶斯网络的站场储罐动态风险评价[J].石油化工自动化,2024,60(01):56-61.

[45]刘明,周妍.基于动态云贝叶斯网络的气化炉风险预测[J].石油石化绿色低碳,2023,8(04):78-84.

[46]刘学辉.基于频率和概率分析的施工致命事故定量风险评估[J].中国水能及电气化,2025,(04):60-64+54.

[47]冯欢.基于层次分析和模糊综合评价方法的计算机网络安全评估[J].吕梁学院学报,2025,15(02):39-46.

[48]李清濯.人工湿地基质综合评价方法构建与应用——基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法[J].长江工程职业技术学院学报,2023,40(04):21-25+53.

[49]林拥军,肖恬煦,张曾鹏,等.基于层次分析法-隶属度理论的混凝土框架结构安全性模糊综合评价方法[J].工业建筑,2022,52(10):28-38+45.

[50]陈剑飞,刘新,任剑,等.基于模糊层次分析的安全态势综合评价方法[J].无线电工程,2025,55(05):1115-1123.

[51]郑锦桐,王亦斌,李雯芸,等.基于层次分析的预应力混凝土钢管(PCCP)风险评价方法[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2024,22(06):113-120.

[52]姜体宝.基于熵权和层次分析法融合的化工生产安全评价方法[J].当代化工研究,2024,(11):191-193.

[53]苏梅.基于“层次分析+模糊综合评价”方法的智能财税人才培养教学改革成效评价研究[J].财务管理研究,2024,(09):122-129.

[54]史建锋,肖玲诺.基于模糊评价方法的跨国公司知识网络有效性评价模型及实证分析[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(06):121-124.

[55]黄强.利用模糊评价方法分析嘉兴地区旅游气候舒适度状况[J].旅游纵览(行业版),2012,(08):48-50.

[56]黄杰,袁俊,崔翛龙,等.基于层次分析法和模糊评价方法相结合的装备数据评估模型方法研究[J].网络安全与数据治理,2024,43(11):43-49+55.

[57]黄波.基于价值工程与模糊评价方法的商业项目投资决策分析[J].商场现代化,2008,(06):198-199.

[58]杨有平.机器学习在铁路隧道施工风险预测中的应用探讨[J].甘肃科技,2024,40(07):77-81.

[59]毛柳明,黄波,李光明.基于多源数据的电力设备状态监测预警技术[J].信息技术,2025,(01):107-111.

[60]朱晨晋.建筑工程全过程咨询项目风险管理研究——以华仓产业园为例[J].新城建科技,2024,33(01):181-184.

[61]赵文钢.产业园项目建设风险管理的研究[J].低碳世界,2022,12(10):196-198.

[62]CITIC Diecastal South Intelligent Manufacturing Industrial Park project settled in Changsha city, Hunan province [J]. 中国铸造：英文版, 2016, 0 (6): 454-454.

[63]张雅霖.大数据应用背景下Z银行信贷业务风险管理效率研究[D].郑州大学,2021.

[64]何芹,劳绍才.基于行为修正——生命周期理论的项目管理研究——以研究型大学科研项目管理为例[J].现代商业,2017,(24):98-99.

[65]刘华诚.生命周期理论在电力工程项目建设中的应用[J].中外企业家,2016,(35):125-126.

[66]董潇.基于全生命周期的技改项目管理[J].中国管理信息化,2016,19(04):118.

[67]Müller R ,Jugdev K .Critical success factors in projects[J].International Journal of Managing Projects in Business,2012,5(4):757-775.

[68]Wu X ,Wu H,Zhan C.Application of BIM application benefit evaluation model based on fuzzy AHP in the whole life cycle of tunnel engineering[J].International Journal of Wireless and Mobile Computing,2023,24(1):66-73.

[69]富兰克·H·奈特.《风险不确定性和利润》[J].证券导刊,2007(43):95.

[70]Weimin M ,Xiaona L ,Xiaosheng W .Water Saving Management Contract, identification and ranking of risks based on life cycle and best-worst method[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2021,306.

[71]Annamalai C .Moderating Role of Implementation Stage in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Projects in India: A Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) Approach[J].Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management,2015,5(4):166-182.

[72]Shun S L ,Long S S ,Annan Z , et al.Risk assessment and management of excavation system based on fuzzy set theory and machine learning methods[J].Automation in Construction,2021,122:103490.

[73]한승조,배영민,이세호,等.시스템 이론과 전쟁론 관점에서의 COVID-19 Pandemic 분석[J].대한산업공학회 추계학술대회 논문집,2020.

[74]Zou Q ,Liao L ,Qin H .Fast Comprehensive Flood Risk Assessment Based on Game Theory and Cloud Model Under Parallel Computation (P-GT-CM)[J].Water Resources Management,2020,34(5):1-24.

[75]刘伟.全面风险管理理论在国有企业财务风险管控领域的应用思考[J].金融客,2024,(09):150-152.

[76]谢志刚.论风险理论基础及行业认知偏差[J].上海保险,2022,(05):22-26.

[77]谢志刚,杨波.基于全面风险管理的主动脱贫理论研究[J].保险研究,2018,(08):3-12.

[78]张苏玉.全面风险管理理论与实践[J].财会学习,2016,(05):209+213.

[79]Disaster Risk Reduction; Reports from A.S. Mofazali and Colleagues Advance Knowledge in Disaster Risk Reduction (The role of Foresight in avoiding systematic failure of natural disaster risk management)[J].Politics & Government Week,2017,21:303-311.

[80]王韵嘉,周莎莎,王嘉.我国系统性金融风险防范化解研究[J].辽宁行政学院学报,2023,(03):35-39.

[81]Hernandez F D ,Haddud A .Value creation via supply chain risk management in global fashion organizations outsourcing production to China[J].Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing,2018,11(2):250-272.

[82]Hwang J ,Lee H ,Lee S , et al.Comprehensive risk management of infectious diseases[J].Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: the interdisciplinary journal of Nonlinear Science, and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena,2024,188115490-115490.

[83]Frati G ,Zoccai B G ,Peruzzi M , et al.Comprehensive risk management for hypertensive patients.[J].European heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes,2024,10(8):656-657.