全球气候变暖导致旱涝急转等极端气候事件发生的频率和严重程度不断上升，旱涝急转事件直接影响植被结构和生理生化过程，并通过影响植被生产力和呼吸改变碳循环过程。净生态系统生产力（Net Ecosystem Productivity, NEP）是碳循环过程的关键参数，也是评估生态系统安全和维持生态系统平衡的重要因素。而目前相关研究主要集中在旱涝急转事件对作物产量和生理特性的影响上，针对陆地生态系统碳循环对旱涝急转事件响应机制的研究较为缺乏。探究生态系统NEP对旱涝急转的响应，对于研究气候变暖背景下陆地生态系统碳汇能力至关重要。长江中下游流域属于亚热带季风气候，受季风影响显著，旱涝急转事件频发，严重威胁农业生产和生态环境安全，是我国旱涝急转灾害最严重的地区之一。因此，本研究基于日降水量计算标准化加权平均降水指数（Standard Weighted Average Precipitation, SWAP），评估了SWAP在长江中下游流域的适用性，并分析了2001-2019年长江中下游流域旱涝急转事件的发生频率、强度以及时空变化规律。同时利用植被光合呼吸模型（Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model, VPRM）和北方生态系统生产力模型（Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, BEPS）模拟长江中下游流域植被NEP，并结合通量观测数据进行了对比验证，进一步探究了植被NEP时空变化特征。最后，分析了长江中下游流域生态系统碳循环对旱涝急转事件的滞后效应，并进一步评估了不同植被类型、不同季节净生态系统生产力对旱涝急转事件的响应机制。主要结论如下：

（1）结合中国水旱灾害公报证明计算的SWAP能有效地识别长江中下游流域旱涝急转事件的演变趋势。2001-2019年长江中下游流域的SWAP值由西南向东北逐渐增加，旱涝急转事件平均每年发生12站次，2011年达到峰值，频次由南向北逐渐增加，大部分区域旱涝急转事件的发生次数为8~11次，旱涝急转强度为2~3。研究区SWAP指数的反持续性强于持续性，未来SWAP动态趋势与2001-2019年的旱涝状况总体上存在弱不一致性。降水是该地区旱涝急转事件的主要影响因素，其次是蒸发、相对湿度和气温，大气环流因素中厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO）和太阳黑子是旱涝急转事件的主导因子。

（2）2001-2019年长江中下游流域NEP呈波动上升的趋势，整体表现为碳汇，碳汇能力在不断增加。碳源区主要集中于湖北东南部、江苏东南部和上海。春季和秋季的植被NEP年均值相近，空间分布虽有所差异但变化趋势较为相似。夏季NEP的空间分布表现为西部高于东部，而冬季NEP值最小，变化趋势以上升为主。各植被类型NEP表现出明显的单峰特征，NEP变化均呈上升趋势，依次为林地>稀树草原>耕地>草地。气象要素对植被NEP变化影响的正贡献率的区域面积约占69.72%，人类活动整体上发挥了正面效应。

（3）SWAP在1个月的滞后时间对NEP更敏感，随着滞后时间的增加，显著相关的面积比例呈下降趋势。旱涝急转事对植被净生态系统生产力为负影响集中在陕西南部、河南西南部、安徽西南部以及湖北大部分地区。滞后时间集中在1-3个月内地区植被类型以草地为主，对旱涝急转的响应较为敏感。旱涝急转事件导致流域大部分区域植被NEP有所下降，主要集中在湖北东部、江西南部、安徽西南部以及湖南东北部地区。流域不同季节NEP与SWAP的正相关程度较高，其中夏季所占比例较大，而春季出现显著负相关的区域所占比例最大。不同植被类型对干旱的敏感性有较大差异，由大到小依次为林地>草地>稀树草原及灌木>耕地。

The frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods have been continuously increasing due to global climate warming. These events directly affect vegetation structure and physiological processes, altering the carbon cycling process by impacting vegetation productivity and respiration. Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) is a key parameter of the carbon cycling process and an important factor in assessing ecosystem security and maintaining ecosystem balance. However, current research mainly focuses on the impact of droughts and floods on crop yield and physiological characteristics, while studies on the response mechanisms of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling to extreme weather events are lacking. Investigating the response of ecosystem NEP to droughts and floods is crucial for understanding the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems under the background of climate warming. The Yangtze River Basin in the middle and lower reaches belongs to a subtropical monsoon climate region, significantly influenced by monsoons, with frequent occurrences of droughts and floods posing serious threats to agricultural production and ecological environment safety, making it one of the most severely affected areas by droughts and floods in China. Therefore, this study assessed the applicability of the Standard Weighted Average Precipitation (SWAP) in the Yangtze River Basin based on daily precipitation data, and analyzed the frequency, intensity, and spatiotemporal variations of droughts and floods events from 2001 to 2019. Additionally, vegetation NEP in the Yangtze River Basin was simulated using the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) and the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS), and compared with flux observation data to further explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation NEP. Furthermore, the lag effect of ecosystem carbon cycling in the Yangtze River Basin in response to droughts and floods was analyzed, and the response mechanisms of different vegetation types and seasonal NEP to droughts and floods events were evaluated. The main conclusions are as follows:

(1) Combined with the Bulletin of Flood and Drought Disasters in China confirms that the calculated SWAP can effectively identify the evolving trend of drought-flood alternations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. From 2001 to 2019, the SWAP values in this region gradually increased from southwest to northeast. On average, drought-flood alternations occurred 12 times per year, peaking in 2011. The frequency of these events increased gradually from south to north, with most regions experiencing 8 to 11 occurrences, and the intensity of the alternations ranged from 2 to 3. The anti-persistence of SWAP indices in the study area is stronger than persistence, and the future dynamic trend of SWAP generally exhibits weak inconsistency with the drought-flood conditions from 2001 to 2019. Precipitation is the primary influencing factor of drought-flood alternations in the area, followed by evaporation, relative humidity, and temperature. Among atmospheric circulation factors, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sunspots contribute significantly to drought-flood alternations.

(2) From 2001 to 2019, the Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend, indicating an overall carbon sink with increasing carbon sequestration capacity. Carbon source areas were mainly concentrated in the southeastern part of Hubei, southeastern Jiangsu, and Shanghai. The annual average NEP of vegetation in spring and autumn was similar, with spatial distribution showing some differences but exhibiting similar trends. The spatial distribution of NEP in summer showed higher values in the western regions compared to the eastern regions, while NEP values were lowest in winter, predominantly trending upwards. Each vegetation type exhibited a distinct unimodal characteristic in NEP, with increasing trends observed in NEP variations, ranked as follows: forest > savannas and shrubs> cropland > grassland. The area of the positive contribution rate of meteorological elements to the change of vegetation NEP accounts for about 69.72 %, and human activities have played a positive role as a whole.

(3) SWAP exhibits greater sensitivity to NEP with a one-month lag, and as the lag time increases, the proportion of significantly correlated areas shows a decreasing trend. Regions negatively impacted by drought-flood alternation on the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of vegetation are concentrated in the southern parts of Shaanxi, southwestern Henan, southwestern Anhui, and most areas of Hubei. Lag times are concentrated within 1-3 months, with grassland being the dominant vegetation type in responsive areas to drought-flood alternation. Drought-flood alternation events lead to a decline in NEP in most areas of the basin, primarily concentrated in the eastern parts of Hubei, southern Jiangxi, southwestern Anhui, and northeastern Hunan. There is a high positive correlation between NEP and SWAP in different seasons in the basin, with summer showing the highest proportion, while regions exhibiting significantly negative correlations are most pronounced in spring. Different vegetation types exhibit significant differences in sensitivity to drought, with forests > grasslands > savannas and shrubs > croplands, in descending order of sensitivity.

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