随着我国城市发展水平加速，洪涝灾害对城市发展的破坏性持续增加。洪涝灾害风险等级划分是对区域内综合指标评定，以判断区域内发生洪涝灾害的可能性，而防汛应急物资是保障救灾的必备之品，合理配置与区域洪涝灾害风险等级相适应的防汛应急救灾物资种类及储备，则能大幅提升救援效率。当前对区域内洪涝灾害风险等级划分，防汛应急物资配置种类及储备的集成研究的理论与经验相对匮乏。为有效降低洪涝灾害造成的人员伤亡、财产损失，提升救灾效率，则需对区域内洪涝灾害风险等级合理划分，配置齐全防汛应急物资种类，设置合理防汛应急物资安全库存储备量，实现对洪涝灾害的高效救援。

本文在分析洪涝灾害形成机理以及影响因素的基础上，对洪涝灾害的致灾因子、孕灾环境、承载体以及防灾减灾能力综合讨论，构建包含4个一级指标、7个二级指标的洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系；采用层次分析法确定各指标权重，运用GIS技术实现区域内洪涝灾害风险等级可视化；在对应急物资发展及分类研究基础上，讨论中央防汛物资储备清单，考虑陕西省陕北地区、关中地区、陕南地区防汛特点，提出更适合陕北地区、关中地区、陕北地区的防汛应急物资配置清单；以历史灾情防汛应急物资使用量数据为样本，基于BP-GA算法预测防汛应急物资，讨论安全库存作用，将政府部门与受灾群众引入安全库存理论，依据防汛应急物资补偿系数，设置安全库存量，计算得出防汛应急物资的安全库存储备数量。

研究结果表明：在年降雨量、高程、河流密度、人口密度、经济密度、人均可支配收入、城镇化率影响因子的作用下，陕西省洪涝灾害风险等级呈现“南高北低”的分布特点，全省共有23个低风险区、47个中风险区、23个较高风险区、14个高风险区，其中，低风险区域占比为21.50%，中风险区域占比为43.92%，较高风险区域占比为20.50%，高风险区域占比为13.08%；以中央防汛物资配置清单为基础，提出了更适合陕北地区、关中地区、陕南地区防汛应急物资配置清单；BP-GA预测算法的精度高于BP神经网络预测算法、随机森林预测算法，预测出陕西省某地区未来6次防汛应急物资使用预测值，结合防汛应急物资调节系数，设置防汛应急物资安全库存系数，计算得出陕西省某地区最低救生衣、救生舟防汛应急物资储备量，对丰富和完善区域内洪涝灾害、应急物资储备管理理论有重要意义，为陕西省区县储备应急物资提供建议参考，为政府部门抵御洪涝灾害以及防汛应急物资储备提供新方法。

With the acceleration of urban development in our country, the destructive effects of floods on urban development continue to increase. The classification of flood disaster risk levels is a comprehensive evaluation of indicators within a region to determine the likelihood of flood disasters occurring. Flood control emergency supplies are essential for ensuring disaster relief. Reasonable allocation of flood control emergency supplies and reserves that are suitable for the regional flood disaster risk level can significantly improve rescue efficiency. Currently, there is a relative lack of theoretical and empirical research on the classification of flood disaster risk levels, the allocation of types and reserves of flood control emergency supplies in the region. In order to effectively reduce casualties and property losses caused by flood disasters, and improve disaster relief efficiency, it is necessary to reasonably classify the risk level of flood disasters in the region, allocate complete types of flood control emergency materials, set a reasonable safety stock reserve of flood control emergency materials, and achieve efficient rescue of flood disasters.

On the basis of analyzing the formation mechanism and influencing factors of flood disasters, this article comprehensively discusses the disaster causing factors, disaster prone environment, bearing bodies, and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities of flood disasters, and constructs a flood disaster risk evaluation index system consisting of four primary indicators and seven secondary indicators; Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine the weights of each indicator, and using GIS technology to achieve visualization of flood disaster risk levels within the region; On the basis of research on the development and classification of emergency supplies, this paper discusses the central flood control material reserve list, takes into account the flood control characteristics of the northern, central, and southern regions of Shaanxi Province, and proposes a flood control emergency material allocation list that is more suitable for the northern, central, and southern regions of Shaanxi Province; Using historical data on the usage of flood control emergency supplies as a sample, the BP-GA algorithm is used to predict flood control emergency supplies, and the role of safety stock is discussed. The government departments and disaster affected individuals are introduced into the theory of safety stock, and based on the compensation coefficient of flood control emergency supplies, the safety stock quantity is set to calculate the safety stock reserve quantity of flood control emergency supplies.

The research results show that under the influence of factors such as annual rainfall, elevation, river density, population density, economic density, per capita disposable income, and urbanization rate, the risk level of flood disasters in Shaanxi Province shows a distribution characteristic of "high in the south and low in the north". There are a total of 23 low risk areas, 47 medium risk areas, 23 high risk areas, and 14 high risk areas in the province. Among them, low-risk areas account for 21.50%, medium risk areas account for 43.92%, high risk areas account for 20.50%, and high risk areas account for 13.08%; Based on the central flood control material allocation list, a more suitable flood control emergency material allocation list has been proposed for the northern, central, and southern regions of Shaanxi; The accuracy of the BP-GA prediction algorithm is higher than that of the BP neural network prediction algorithm and the random forest prediction algorithm. It predicts the predicted values of the use of emergency flood control materials in a certain area of Shaanxi Province for the next six times. Combined with the adjustment coefficient of emergency flood control materials, the safety inventory coefficient of emergency flood control materials is set, and the minimum reserve of emergency flood jackets and lifeboats in a certain area of Shaanxi Province is calculated. This is of great significance for enriching and improving the theory of flood disasters and emergency material reserve management in the region. It provides suggestions and references for the reserve of emergency materials in counties and districts of Shaanxi Province, and for government departments to resist flood disasters and flood control emergency material reserves.

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