煤炭资源安全绿色高效开发技术的大规模工业化应用是实现陕北煤炭工业健康可持续发展的必由之路。但由于对技术内生演变规律缺乏深入地研究，导致技术瓶颈、成本障碍等多重因素长期制约着关键技术的大规模工业化应用。为此，有必要采用适用的方法深入研究典型关键技术的内生演化规律，揭示其成本变动趋势，从而为相关技术规划提供有效的决策依据。本研究着眼陕北煤炭资源的可持续开发和陕北煤炭工业健康发展，基于技术学习曲线理论，测算了大采高、煤制油、碳捕集与埋存等典型煤炭资源安全绿色高效开发关键技术的学习率，预测其成本变动趋势，为陕北煤炭资源安全绿色高效开发技术研发与应用政策建议提供依据。取得的主要研究成果如下： （1）通过文献资料分析、实地调研，分析了陕北煤炭资源赋存条件、开发现状与存在的问题，指出安全生产压力大、生态环境破坏严重、煤炭资源回收率低、资源就地转化能力弱是制约陕北煤炭产业健康发展的主要问题。根据存在的问题，针对性地提出了陕北煤炭资源安全绿色高效开发的技术需求。 （2）基于“干中学”技术学习曲线模型，选取并测算了大采高技术、煤制油技术、碳捕集与埋存技术等典型关键技术的学习率，研究结果显示三项典型关键技术的学习率分别为2.93%、4.8%和4.25%，表明当大采高技术累计开采煤量、煤制油累计产量、CCS技术累计捕集量翻番时，相关技术的成本分别下降2.93%、4.8%和4.25%。 （3）采用情景分析法，估算了上述技术在未来不同时间节点、不同情景下的累计业务量，在此基础上，预见了既定技术学习率下上述技术的不同时间节点的成本水平，从而预测了相关技术成本未来变化的趋势。 （4）基于以上研究，从加强技术路线规划，明确重点发展方向、加强煤炭资源安全绿色高效开发研发力度、建设示范工程、加强技术国际合作与交流、提升煤炭资源安全绿色高效开发意识等方面提出了陕北地区煤炭资源安全绿色高效开发技术研发与应用的政策建议。 本研究将技术学习理论与方法引入煤炭资源开发领域，不仅在一定程度上拓展了该理论的应用范围，并且能够为政府相关部门进行技术规划与管理提供有效的决策依据，对于实现陕北煤炭资源可持续开发、促进区域煤炭产业健康发展具有重要的现实意义。

The large-scale industrial application of the Safe-Green-Efficient development technology of coal resources is the only way to achieve the healthy and sustainable development of the coal industry in northern Shaanxi. However, multiple factors such as technical bottlenecks, cost barriers due to the lack of in-depth study on the technical endogenous evolution restrict the large-scale industrial applications of key technology in the long term. Therefore, it is necessary to use suitable means to intensively study the endogenous evolution of the typical key technology and reveal its changes in cost trends, consequently providing an effective decision-making basis for some related technology planning. This study focused on the sustainable and healthy development of the coal industry in northern Shaanxi measured the learning rate of the key technologies of the Safe-Green-Efficient development of coal resources such as the large mining height, coal oil, carbon capture and sequestration and predicted their cost trends based on the theory of technology learning curve, Provide the basis on the policy recommendations of technology R & D and applications for th-e Safe-Green-Efficient development of coal resources in northern Shaanxi. The main research results are as follows: (1) Through literature analysis and field investigation, the paper analyzed the occurrence conditions, development status and existing problems concerning the coal resources in northern Shaanxi and pointed out the main problems restricting the healthy development of coal industry in northern Shaanxi such as safety production pressure, severe ecological damage, the low recovery rate of coal resources, the weak conversion capacity of the resources in situ. According to the existing problems, the thesis also puts forward the technical demands of the Safe-Green-Efficient technology of coal resources in northern Shaanxi. (2)Based on the “learning by doing” technology learning curve model, the thesis choosed and measured the learning rate of the typical key technologies such as the large mining height, coal oil, and carbon capture and sequestration technology. The findings show that the learning rate of above three typical key technologies are 2.93%, 4.8% and 4.25% respectively, which also indicates that when the cumulative amount of coal mining of the large mining height technology, cumulative production of coal oil, the cumulative capture amount of CCS technology has doubled, the cost of related technologies fell 2.93%, 4.8% and 4.25% respectively. (3)Using scenario analysis, the paper estimated the cumulative traffic trends of above techniques in different time nodes and situations. On this basis, the thesis foresees the cost levels at different time nodes of the above-described techniques, thus predicting the cost tendency of the related technologies in the future. (4)Based on the above studies, the paper proposed the policy recommendations to Safe-Green-Efficient develop coal resources in northern Shaanxi from the following aspects: enhancing technical route planning, making the clear focus on the development direction, strengthening R & D efforts to Safe-Green-Efficient develop coal resources, constructing the demonstration project, strengthening international cooperation and technical exchanges, raising the awareness of the Safe-Green-Efficient development of coal resources. The study introduced technological learning theories and methods into the field of coal resources development, which does not only expands the scope of the theory application to a certain extent, but also provides an effective decision-making basis for relevant government departments on technical planning and management. The study also has important practical significance for the sustainable development of the coal resources in northern Shaanxi and the promotion of the healthy development of the regional coal industry.