联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第六次评估报告指出，气候变化正在改变地球环境，特别是极端气候事件发生的频率和强度均呈增加态势，给人类社会和自然生态系统带来不同程度的影响和挑战。黄土高原是我国典型的生态脆弱区和气候敏感区，系统分析其极端气候特征和未来趋势及其对植被的影响研究，对于黄土高原应对气候变化及生态政策调整可提供科学支持。本文以黄土高原为研究区，基于1960-2020年气象数据、2001-2020年MOD13C2归一化植被指数（NDVI）和1960-2100年NEX-GDDP-CMIP6数据集，采用线性回归、M-K检验、相关性分析、双线性插值和多元线性回归等方法，分析了该地区极端气候指数和植被NDVI的时空变化特征及极端气候对植被NDVI的影响，并对不同气候情景下未来（2015-2100年）极端气候指数以及植被NDVI的变化进行了预测。主要研究结论如下：

（1）年际变化上，黄土高原地区极端降水指数和极端气温指数均呈上升趋势。极端降水指数主要表现为总降水量（PRCPTOT）、中雨日数（R10mm）、大雨日数（R20mm）、强降水日数（R25mm）和降水强度（SDII）呈显著上升趋势（P<0.05）。极端气温指数主要表现为最高气温（TMAXmean）、最低气温（TMINmean）、冷夜指数（TN10p）和暖夜日数（TN90p）呈显著上升趋势（P<0.05）。季节变化上，极端降水指数中春季、夏季和秋季最大日降水量（RX1day）均呈上升趋势，春季和夏季最大5天连续降水量（RX5day）呈上升趋势，秋季最大5天连续降水量（RX5day）呈下降趋势；春季、夏季和秋季极端气温指数整体呈上升趋势。其中，春季和夏季最高气温（TMAXmean）呈上升趋势的站点数量最多，占比为96.88%。月变化上，极端降水中11月最大日降水量（RX1day）和最大5天连续降水量（RX5day）呈上升趋势的站点最多，占92.19%和95.31%；极端气温指数中最高气温（TMAXmean）3月呈上升趋势的站点数量最多，占98.44%。综上，黄土高原地区总体上降水量和气温均呈增加趋势，暖湿化特征明显。

（2）年际变化上，2001-2020年黄土高原地区NDVI呈显著增加趋势（P<0.01）；空间上呈增加趋势的区域占区域总面积的94.22%，其中显著增加区域占72.06%（P<0.05），主要分布在山西省、陕西省中北部、内蒙古自治区南部和甘肃省东部地区。季节变化上，黄土高原地区春、夏和秋季NDVI均呈显著增加趋势（P<0.01），且夏季和秋季增加速率高于春季；空间上春季、夏季和秋季呈增加趋势的区域占区域总面积的比重分别为91.14%、93.48%和95.07%，其中呈显著增加的区域占比分别为62.72%，70.76%和70.59%，主要分布在山西西部、陕西中北部和内蒙古自治区东部。月变化上，月NDVI均呈显著增加趋势（P<0.01），其中7月和8月增加速率最高，均为0.07/10a；在黄土高原南部部分地区NDVI呈显著减少趋势，主要由城市扩张导致。

（3）极端气候对植被NDVI具有不同程度的影响。年尺度上，极端降水指数中总降水量（PRCPTOT）、中雨日数（R10mm）和强降水日数（R25mm）与植被NDVI呈显著正相关关系（P<0.05）；大雨日数（R20mm）和降水强度（SDII）与植被NDVI呈显著正相关关系达，且到了0.01显著性水平（P<0.01），表明黄土高原地区植被生长与降水关系密切。季节上，春季最大日降水量（RX1day）与NDVI呈显著正相关关系，夏季最低气温（TMINmean）与NDVI呈显著正相关关系，表明春季降水是影响植被生长的主要因素，夏季低温促进植被生长。月尺度上，最高气温（TMAXmean）、最低气温（TMINmean）和暖夜日数（TN90p）与NDVI呈显著正相关（P＜0.01），4月为该区植被快速生长阶段，降水的增加和温度的回暖有利于植被的生长。极端降水指数对NDVI的影响存在一定的滞后性，主要对同期和滞后1-2个月的植被生长有明显影响。

（4）利用NEX-GDDP-CMIP6数据集对未来极端气候和植被NDVI进行模拟和预测，结果显示，多模式集合平均值对降水、气温的模拟效果最优。时间上，SSP1-2.6（低辐射强迫，2.6W•m^-2情景）和SSP2-4.5（中等辐射强迫，4.5W•m^-2情景）情景下未来极端降水指数变化均较大，相较于历史时期两种情景，连续干燥日和最长连续降水均有所增加，总降水量和降水强度相较历史时期减少。极端气温相较历史时期呈上升趋势，主要表现为低温和高温的上升。基于两种情景下预测植被NDVI变化，结果显示，SSP2-4.5情景下植被NDVI优于SSP1-2.6情景下植被NDVI，两种情景下植被NDVI均呈波动上升趋势。

The Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that climate change is changing the Earth's environment, especially the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are increasing, bringing varying degrees of impact and challenges to human society and natural ecosystems. The Loess Plateau is a typical ecologically fragile and climate-sensitive area in China. A systematic analysis of its extreme climate characteristics and future trends and their effects on vegetation can provide scientific support for coping with climate change and adjusting ecological policies on the Loess Plateau. Based on 1960-2020 meteorological data, 2001-2020 MOD13C2 normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and 1960-2100 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data set, the Loess Plateau was selected as the study area. Using linear regression, M-K test, correlation analysis, bilinear interpolation and multiple linear regression, we analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of extreme climate index and vegetation NDVI, and the effects of extreme climate on vegetation NDVI. The future changes of extreme climate index and vegetation NDVI under different climate scenarios (2015-2100 year) are predicted. The main conclusions are as follows:

(1) In terms of inter-annual variation, both the extreme precipitation index and the extreme temperature index in the Loess Plateau showed an increasing trend. The extreme precipitation index mainly showed that the total precipitation (PRCPTOT), the number of moderate rain days (R10mm), the number of heavy rain days (R20mm), the number of heavy precipitation days (R25mm) and the precipitation intensity (SDII) showed a significant increasing trend (P<0.05). The extreme temperature index mainly showed that the maximum temperature (TMAXmean), the minimum temperature (TMINmean), the cold night index (TN10p) and the number of warm night days (TN90p) showed a significant increasing trend (P<0.05). In terms of seasonal variation, the maximum daily precipitation (RX1day) in spring, summer and autumn showed an increasing trend, the maximum 5-day continuous precipitation (RX5day) in spring and summer showed an increasing trend, and the maximum 5-day continuous precipitation (RX5day) in autumn showed a decreasing trend. The extreme temperature index in spring, summer and autumn showed an overall upward trend. Among them, the maximum temperature in spring and summer (TMAXmean) showed an increasing trend, accounting for 96.88%. In terms of monthly variation, the maximum daily precipitation (RX1day) and the maximum 5-day continuous precipitation (RX5day) in November showed an increasing trend, accounting for 92.19% and 95.31%. In the extreme temperature index (TMAXmean), the number of stations with a rising trend in March was the largest, accounting for 98.44%. In summary, the precipitation and temperature in the Loess Plateau showed an increasing trend, and the characteristics of warming and humidification were obvious.

(2) From 2001 to 2020, NDVI in the Loess Plateau showed a significant increasing trend (P<0.01). The regions with a spatial increasing trend accounted for 94.22% of the total area of the region, of which 72.06% were significantly increased (P<0.05), mainly distributed in Shanxi Province, north-central Shaanxi Province, southern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and eastern Gansu Province. In terms of seasonal variation, NDVI showed a significant increase trend in spring, summer and autumn (P<0.01), and the increase rate in summer and autumn was higher than that in spring. The proportion of regions with an increasing trend in spring, summer and autumn in the total area of the region was 91.14%, 93.48% and 95.07%, respectively, and the proportion of regions with a significant increase was 62.72%, 70.76% and 70.59%, respectively, mainly distributed in western Shanxi, north-central Shaanxi and eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. In terms of monthly variation, monthly NDVI showed a significant increasing trend (P<0.01), and the highest increasing rate was 0.07/10a in July and August. In the southern part of the Loess Plateau, NDVI showed a significant decreasing trend, which was mainly caused by urban expansion.

(3) Extreme climate has different effects on NDVI. At the annual scale, the total precipitation (PRCPTOT), the number of moderate rain days (R10mm) and the number of heavy precipitation days (R25mm) in the extreme precipitation index were significantly positively correlated with NDVI (P<0.05). The number of heavy rain days (R20mm) and precipitation intensity (SDII) were positively correlated with NDVI, and reached the significance level of 0.01 (P<0.01), indicating that vegetation growth was closely related to precipitation in the Loess Plateau. Seasonally, the maximum daily precipitation in spring (RX1day) was significantly positively correlated with NDVI, and the minimum temperature in summer (TMINmean) was significantly positively correlated with NDVI, indicating that spring precipitation was the main factor affecting vegetation growth, and low temperature in summer promoted vegetation growth. On the monthly scale, the maximum temperature (TMAXmean), the minimum temperature (TMINmean) and the number of warm night days (TN90p) were significantly positively correlated with NDVI (P < 0.01). April was the stage of rapid growth of vegetation in this region, and the increase of precipitation and warming of temperature were conducive to the growth of vegetation. The effect of extreme precipitation index on NDVI has a certain lag, mainly affecting the vegetation growth in the same period and 1-2 months lag.

(4) The NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is used to simulate and forecast the future extreme climate and vegetation NDVI. The results show that the multi-model ensemble average has the best simulation effect on precipitation and temperature. In terms of time, both SSP1-2.6 (low radiative forcing, 2.6W•m-2 scenario) and SSP2-4.5 (medium radiative forcing, 4.5W•m-2 scenario) scenarios have greater changes in the future extreme precipitation index. Compared with the two scenarios in the historical period, the continuous dry days and the longest continuous precipitation have increased. The total precipitation and precipitation intensity decreased compared with the historical period. Compared with the historical period, the extreme temperature is on the rise, mainly manifested as the rise of low temperature and high temperature. Based on the prediction of vegetation NDVI changes under two scenarios, the results showed that the vegetation NDVI under the SSP2-4.5 scenario was better than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and the vegetation NDVI under both scenarios showed a fluctuating upward trend.

Key words: Extreme climate; Temporal and spatial changes; NDVI; CMIP6; Loess Plateau

Thesis：Application Research

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