我国正处于社会转型、体制转轨、利益调整的特殊时期，利益格局的调整与社会控制模式的变更，社会分化与社会流动的加速，使社会矛盾和冲突日渐增多并且引发了许多不同程度的群体性事件。为了正确认识群体性事件的成因，深入分析群体性事件的发生、发展与演化机理，本文采用博弈论作为群体性事件发生、发展与演化机理的分析工具，研究群体性事件发展的相关因素并且构建群体性事件的情景模型。 本文首先将社会燃烧理论与价值累加理论相结合，分析了群体性事件多因素发生、发展、演化与平息过程，构建了群体性事件生命周期理论模型，为各阶段的情景分析做了铺垫；其次将进化博弈论、经典博弈论以及主观博弈论进行综合运用，构建了不同情景下的博弈模型与收益矩阵；最后以云南绥江失地移民围堵县城这一群体性事件为例，对三峡集团、地方政府、失地移民进行了相关利益分析，构建了不同情景下此群体性事件发生、发展、演化与平息的模型。由于移民安置政策不透明，政府对社会弱势群体的利益诉求没有及时、有效回应等原因，导致群体性事件爆发；运用顺推归纳法与博弈模型探索群体性事件发展与演化的条件，构建不同的情景，博弈双方寻求各自收益最大化，事件不断扩大与蔓延；博弈双方采取不同策略以达到均衡点，实现稳定均衡状态，从而达到群体性事件生命周期的事件平息阶段。 基于各种情景下群体性事件的产生原因与发展趋势，通过构建博弈模型并且分析各利益主体之间的博弈关系与稳定均衡条件以此做出有效地预警和防范，能够减少群体性事件的发生数量，降低群体性事件的危害程度，对预防与处置我国的群体性事件具有很强的理论与现实意义。

China is in the special period of Social Transformation, Institutional Transition and Beneficial Adjustment. Pattern adjustment of benefits and changes of social control model, acceleration of social differentiation and social mobility, making the social contradictions and conflicts escalated, lead to a number of different levels of Group Events. For correct understanding of the causes of group events, deeply analyzes the occurs, developments and evolution mechanism of them, based on scenario analysis’ importance to system future occurring possibility description, take Game Theory as analyzing tool of the occurs, developments and evolution mechanism of group events, study relevant factors of group events’ developments, build scenario model of group events. Firstly, this Paper takes the combination of social combustion theory and value accumulation theory, analyzes of Group Event occur, development, evolution and calm, builds a theoretical model of the life cycle of Group Event, paves the way for the various stages of scene analysis. Second, get the evolutionary game theory, the classic game theory and the subjective game theory together to construct a game model under different scenarios with the payoff matrix. Finally, takes Yunan Suijiang landless migrants surrounding the County for example, analyzes the relative benefits among Three Gorges Group, Local government and landless migrants, builds model in different scenarios of the occur, development, evolution and calm of this group event. Due to the not transparent settlement policy and local government did not timely and effectively respond to demands of social vulnerable group, group event brokes out. Use forward induction and game model to discover group events’ development and evolution conditions, build different scenarios, both gaming sides seek respectively maximum benefits, the incidents continue to expand and spread. Game both sides takes a different strategy in order to achieve equilibrium, so as to get the Group Event of life cycle events to calm stage. Based on group events’ causes and developing trends in various scenarios, by building game model, analyze game relationships and stable equilibrium conditions among various stakeholders, make effectively early warning and preventions, and effectively reduce the occurring numbers of group events, lower group events’ harm degree. It has strong theoretic and practical significance to prevent and deal with China’s group events.