随着我国经济社会的快速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高，中国汽车轮胎市场已从卖方市场全面过渡到买方市场，轮胎质量已成为市场竞争的关键因素，加强研发、采购、生产和销售全过程质量管理是轮胎制造企业占领市场、保证竞争优势的重要抓手。基于供应链视角研究质量风险传播机理，从源头管控质量风险，对提升轮胎制造企业质量管理能力和水平，提高轮胎产品质量具有重要的理论和现实意义。

论文在归纳总结供应链质量风险及其传播等领域的国内外研究现状和相关理论的基础上，以LL轮胎为研究对象，分析其供应链管理现状和存在问题，运用Matlab构建该企业供应链网络；参考有关文献并结合企业实际，构建LL轮胎供应链质量风险传播评价指标体系，并分析指标体系与风险传播参数的关系，在调查问卷和专家打分的基础上，运用AHP法和模糊综合评价，对参数进行测度，运用SIRS模型对LL轮胎供应链质量风险传播机理进行分析和仿真模拟。结果表明：（1）LL轮胎供应链质量风险强度处于中高风险，风险抵抗能力、风险恢复能力以及风险学习能力均处于良好区间，并普遍偏低；（2）风险感染概率与风险传播范围和风险传播速度呈正相关关系；（3）风险消除概率与风险传播范围和风险传播速度呈负相关关系；（4）感染者淘汰概率与风险传播范围和风险传播速度呈负相关关系。基于此，分别从加强供应链质量风险监控、建立供应链质量风险预警和应急机制、优化供应链合作伙伴选择、构建供应链协同机制、提高供应链管理水平五个方面提出对策建议，对有效控制质量风险在LL轮胎供应链传播具有实际指导价值。

With the rapid development of China’s economy and society and the continuous improvement of people’s living standards, the Chinese automotive tire market has transitioned from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, and tire quality has become a key factor in market competition. Strengthening the quality management of the entire process of research and development, procurement, production, and sales is an important means for tire manufacturing companies to occupy the market and ensure competitive advantages. Based on the perspective of the supply chain, studying the mechanism of quality risk transmission, controlling quality risks from the source, and improving the quality management capabilities and levels of tire manufacturing companies have important theoretical and practical significance for improving tire product quality.

Based on the domestic and foreign research status and related theories of summarizing supply chain quality risks and their propagation, taking LL Tire as the research object, this paper analyzes its supply chain management status and existing problems, and uses Matlab to construct the enterprise’s supply chain network. Referring to relevant literature and combining with the actual situation of the enterprise, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the propagation of LL Tire’s supply chain quality risks and analyzes the relationship between the index system and risk propagation parameters. Based on the survey questionnaire and expert scoring, the paper uses AHP method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to measure the parameters, and uses the SIRS model to analyze and simulate the propagation mechanism of LL Tire’s supply chain quality risks. The results show that: (1) The intensity of LL Tire’s supply chain quality risks is at a medium to high level, and its risk resistance, risk recovery, and risk learning abilities are all in the good range , yet tending towards lower values in general. (2) The probability of risk infection is positively correlated with the range and speed of risk propagation. (3) The probability of risk elimination is negatively correlated with the range and speed of risk propagation. (4) The probability of elimination of infected individuals is negatively correlated with the range and speed of risk propagation. Based on this, countermeasure suggestions were made in five aspects: strengthening supply chain quality risk monitoring, establishing supply chain quality risk early warning and emergency response mechanism, optimizing supply chain partner selection, building supply chain synergy mechanism, and improving enterprise supply chain management, which have practical guidance value for effectively controlling quality risk transmission in LL tyre supply chain.

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