地震预测到如今还是探索性研究项目，特别是对于中、短期或临震前的预测还处于探索阶段，远远没有到可以实用的程度。一些学者对实现地震预报抱有怀疑，对于用行政手段组织地震预测持保留态度。 　　　地震预测的科学前提是认识地震孕育和发生的物理过程，包括地球介质物理、力学性质的异常变化。但是人类对地震成因和地震发生的规律还知之甚少，主要是因为地震是宏观自然界中大规模的深层的变动过程，不同于实验室中单纯的可控条件下进行的样品试验，其影响因素过于复杂，还可能有人类未知的因素存在。其中地壳形变测量学就是以大地形变观测为基础，研究现今地壳构造运动和地震孕育过程的形变特征及其机理，直接为强震预测及其它形变灾害研究服务的一门学科。而在利用跨断层测量预报地震时，形变异常通常是作为地震前兆信息的一个非常重要指标，也是短临地震预报的重要基础。 　　　本文研究的内容就是在现有条件下怎样更充分地综合利用断层形变资料来研究地震预测预报方面的问题。针对断层分析中形变异常产生的多源性，考虑当前青藏块体东北缘跨断层测量场地基础信息管理和使用中存在的场地基础资料不完整、且多系纸介质存储，不便查询和使用；场地的断层监测数据与相关的基础地理信息分离，不便于进行综合分析等问题，探讨了建立跨断层场地基础数据库的方法，并研发基于GIS的跨断层测量场地基础信息管理系统，以提高跨断层形变监测信息的管理、分析和利用。 　　　主要内容有： （1）跨断层场地基础数据的收集与整理 　　　跨断层场地基础数据除包括断层基本信息和各期断层测量原始数据外，还包括场地概况、地理环境、地形图、气候、温度、场地地质背景、场地周围历史地震情况等多项基础信息，同时研究引起形变异常的可能因素以及影响条件和力度，以便能提高地震分析预报的科学性和准确性。 （2）跨断层场地数据库模型设计 　　　模型是在数据的基础上建立起来的，数据模型包括了矢量数据模型、栅格数据模型以及失栅一体化模型。根据对跨断层场地数据的实际应用需求分析，结合相关的数据规范要求，我们选用了关系数据库作为本数据库的建库理论基础，设计出了跨断层场地数据库模型，并根据实际情况通过各种手段进行了优化，提高了跨断层场地数据库的实用性。 　　　（3）跨断层场地数据库的建立 　　　根据所建立的数据库模型，将收集到的跨断层场地资料进行数据处理与整合，最终建立独立的跨断层场地数据库。 　　　（4）跨断层场地数据库管理系统的研发 　　　基于VS2010+ ArcEngine 开发环境，在实际功能需求的要求下，实现了跨断层场地数据库管理系统的设计，为用户提供了友好的交互界面。 　　　上述数据库建立的突出特点： 　　　①首次建立跨断层基础信息管理系统，对于提升断层形变分析的深度和广度、异常分析的科学性和准确性具有很大帮助。 　　　②跨断层场地数据库与成熟的地理信息系统的有机结合。有利于整合地学及其相关专业的调查资料，增强了跨断层场地数据库的可用性；另外，也为其他专业数据库的设计提供了参考。

Until now,earthquake prediction is still exploratory research projects, especially in the short-term and impending prediction ,which is still in the exploratory stage, far away from the practical level. Some scholars have doubts about realizing earthquake prediction and reservations about the earthquake prediction organized by administrative means. 　　　The scientific premise of earthquake prediction is the understanding of the physical processes of earthquake preparation and occurrence, including abnormal changes of the earth medium physical and mechanical properties. But humanity's genesis of earthquake and occurrence regularity is poorly understood, mainly because of the earthquake is the change process of deep mass of the macroscopic nature, sample test is different from the controlled conditions of simple laboratory carried out, the influence factors are too complex, may also have the existence of human factors unknown. Crustal deformation measurement science is based on a geodetic deformation observations, the present crustal tectonic movement and earthquake preparation process of the deformation characteristics and mechanism of direct services for earthquake prediction and other deformation disaster research a subject. Cross-fault measurement of earthquake prediction, the deformation anomaly usually is a very important indicator of earthquake precursors, an important foundation also short-term earthquake prediction. 　　　The contents of this paper is how under the existing conditions more fully comprehensive utilization of fault deformation data to study the problem of earthquake prediction. For fault analysis of deformation anomaly generated multi-source, considering the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet block cross-fault measurement space based information management and use of existing venues basic information is incomplete, and the Department of paper media storage, inconvenience and use; site fault monitoring data with the basic geographic information separation, do not facilitate a comprehensive analysis to explore the establishment of cross-fault site-based database, and research and development of GIS-based cross-fault measurements venues basic information management system in order to improve cross-fault deformation monitoring information management, analysis and utilization. 　　　The main contents are： (1) the basis of cross-fault site data collection and collation 　　　In addition to basic data across the fault site includes basic information and each tomographic tomographic measurement of the raw data, but also including venue profiles, geography, terrain, climate, temperature, site geological background， historical earthquakes around the site and so many basic information， while study possible factors causing abnormal deformation and impact conditions and efforts in order to improve the analysis and prediction of earthquake science and accuracy. (2) Cross-database model design fault site 　　　Model is built on the basis of data， the data model includes vector data model， raster data models， and loss of grid integration model. According to the data on the cross-fault practical application of space needs analysis， combined with related data specifications， we use a relational database as the databank theoretical foundation， design a database model across the fault site and the actual situation by all means optimized to improve the cross-fault site database practicality. (3) The establishment of a database across the fault site 　　　According to the established database model， the collected data across the fault site for data processing and integration， and ultimately establish an independent cross-fault site database. (4) cross-fault site database management system development 　　　VS2010 + ArcEngine development environment based on the actual requirements of the functional requirements， to achieve a cross-fault site database management system is designed to provide users with a friendly interface. 　　　The database created salient features: 　　　① First established based information management system across the fault， fault deformation analysis for enhancing the depth and breadth of scientific anomaly analysis and accuracy of great help. 　　　② Cross fault site database with sophisticated geographic information systems are integrated. Facilitate the integration of professional geoscience and related survey data， enhanced cross-fault site database availability; another， but also for other professional database design provides a reference.