在现代经济的快速发展下，商业综合体的数量持续增加，频繁发生的商业综合体火灾安全事故对公众的生命财产安全构成了严重威胁。火灾风险评估作为应对火灾事故的关键环节，具有预防事故发生的作用，并且能够为相关管理工作提供有力的参考依据。因此，有必要对商业综合体的火灾安全隐患进行识别和评估，并实施有力的预防措施，这对于商业综合体的安全管理具有实际意义。

针对目前商业综合体火灾特点以及火灾防控存在的问题，发现商业综合体火灾风险的影响因素存在多方面，且相互之间存在复杂的关联关系，为了准确评估商业综合体的火灾风险因素，本研究以商业综合体火灾事故的风险评价为导向，以信息熵理论、云模型理论作为理论基础，提出基于云模型的商业综合体火灾风险评估方法。首先通过分析多个商业综合体典型案例及相关文献法律法规，结合系统论观点，从风险因素的识别、归类与整理入手，着眼建筑特性、火源情况、消防设备、安全疏散、消防管理5个核心维度建立指标体系，并对指标分级做出详细说明；然后基于层次分析法和熵值法提出了主客观组合赋权模型，通过层次分析法基于专家经验和主观判断确定主观权重，熵值法根据指标信息熵计算客观权重，引入云模型法，介绍云模型实施步骤，构建基于云模型的商业综合体火灾风险评估模型。最后选取A商业综合体为实际案例运用云模型进行验证，有效处理模糊性和随机性，运用MATLAB软件创建云图，从而达到了定性描述与定量描述的彼此转换，得到较为直观、精确和客观的评价结果，能够为商业综合体的火灾风险防控提出针对性的意见及改进措施。

通过层次分析法和熵值法的结合，很好的解决了评判结果主观性的问题，再运用云模型进行评估，有效地处理模糊性和随机性，得到较为直观、精确和客观的评价结果，能够为综合商业体火灾风险防控提供指导，同时也能为综合商业体火灾风险评价体系及评价方法的研究提供新的参考借鉴。

With the rapid development of modern economy, the number of commercial complexes continues to increase, and frequent fire safety accidents in commercial complexes pose a serious threat to the safety of public life and property. As a key link to deal with fire accidents, fire risk assessment plays a significant role in preventing accidents, and can provide a powerful reference for related management. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and evaluate the fire safety hazards of the commercial complex, and implement effective preventive measures, which has practical significance for the safety management of the commercial complex.

Aiming at the current fire characteristics of commercial complex and problems in fire prevention and control, it is found that there are many factors affecting the fire risk of commercial complex, and there are complex correlations among them. In order to accurately evaluate the fire risk factors of commercial complex, this study takes the risk assessment of fire accidents of commercial complex as the guidance. Based on information entropy theory and cloud model theory, a fire risk assessment method of commercial complex based on cloud model is proposed. Firstly, through the analysis of several typical cases of commercial complexes and related literature, laws and regulations, combined with the viewpoint of system theory, the index system is established from the identification, status of the source of fire, focusing on the five core dimensions of building characteristics, fire source and fire load, fire fighting equipment, safe evacuation and fire management, and the index classification is explained in detail. Then, based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method, A combination of subjective and objective weights was proposed. The subjective weights were determined by AHP based on expert experience and subjective judgment, and the objective weights were calculated by entropy method based on index information entropy.

Finally, commercial complex A was selected as a practical case and verified by cloud model to effectively deal with fuzziness and randomness, and cloud maps were created by matlab software. Thus, the conversion of qualitative description and quantitative description is achieved, and more intuitive, accurate and objective evaluation results are obtained, which can put forward targeted opinions and improvement measures for the fire risk prevention and control of commercial complex.

Through the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method, the subjective problem of evaluation results is well solved. Then, cloud model is applied to evaluate, effectively deal with ambiguity and randomness, and more intuitive, accurate and objective evaluation results are obtained, which can provide guidance for the fire risk prevention and control of comprehensive commercial entities. At the same time, it can provide a new reference for the research of comprehensive commercial fire risk evaluation system and evaluation method.

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