煤与瓦斯突出是威胁煤矿安全生产的主要灾害之一，虽然煤与瓦斯突出事故逐年减少，但仍时有发生，煤矿安全生产形势依然严峻。突出发生的机理不清楚、突出险兆事件认识不足并且缺乏预控机制是煤与瓦斯突出事故层出不穷的根本原因。每一起煤与瓦斯突出事故发生之前，都会出现大量险兆事件，开展煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件基础理论及其管控对策的研究，是提高煤与瓦斯突出防治反应速度的有效手段。 本文首先对煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件相关基础理论开展了分析研究：明确了煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件概念，将其与煤与瓦斯突出预兆、征兆、危险源、事故隐患进行了范围和概念上的辨析，依照其产生的来源，将煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件分为四类；按照其发生的概率、造成伤害损失的程度将煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件分为四级。同时，结合“瑞士奶酪”模型和“三类危险源煤矿险兆事件致因模型”，构建了煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件致因概念模型。其次，运用文献分析法提取了23个煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件致因因素，并编制了煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件致因因素调查问卷，采用SPSS19.0对问卷结果进行分析，得到个体人因失误、设备设施安全水平、固有环境因素和安全管理水平4个二级因子以及19个三级因子，验证了前文对于煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件的分类。再次，通过对各因素之间因果关系进行分析，构建出煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件解释结构模型，明确了各因素间的因果结构。最后，以煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件解释结构模型为基础，提出具有针对性的管控对策。 通过对煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件基础理论和致因因素的研究，加深了险兆事件理论在煤矿领域的研究和应用，能够有效提高煤与瓦斯突出防治预先反应速度，为煤与瓦斯突出事故的预防提供了新的思路。

Coal and gas outburst is one of the main disaster threats to coal mine safety production, although coal and gas outburst accidents have been decreasing, but there still have been occurred, coal mine production safety situation is still very grim. Outburst mechanism is not clear, highlighting the lack of knowledge of risk mega events and the lack of pre-control mechanism is an endless stream of coal and gas outburst accident root causes. Before each coal and gas outburst accident occurred, there will be a large number of near misses, which carry coal and gas outburst near miss warning basic theory and research, are an effective means of prevention of increasing the reaction rate on coal and gas outburst Firstly, analysis coal and gas outburst near miss conducted basic theory: Identify the coal and gas outburst near miss concept, with coal and gas outburst omen, signs, hazards, accidents were the scope and conceptual discrimination, in accordance with the source of their produce, according to the probability of its occurrence and the extent of damage will be lost ,coal and gas outburst near miss is divided into four categories. At the same time, combined with the "Swiss cheese" model and the "three types of hazards cause of coal mine near miss causation" to build coal and gas outburst near miss cause of the conceptual model. Secondly, uses literature analysis method to extract the 23 coal and gas outburst near miss causation factors, and prepares coal and gas outburst near miss causation factor questionnaire, questionnaire results were analyzedbySPSS19.0, obtain equipment and facilities security levels, environmental factors and inherent safety management level four secondary factors, and 19 three factors validated for coal and gas outburst, verify that the classification for coal and gas outburst near miss in foregoing. Again, by conducting an analysis of the causal relationship between the various factors, construction of the coal and gas outburst near miss was set up to explain the structural model, clearing causal structure among factors. Finally, based on the coal and gas outburst near miss interpreted structural model, proposed control countermeasure targeted. Through the study on coal and gas outburst near miss basic theory and causation factors, deepened the theoretical and applied in the field of near miss event in coal mine, which can improve the coal and gas outburst prevention of pre-response rate for coal effectively, and provides a new way of thinking for the prevention of coal and gas outburst accidents.