论文中文题名: | 煤化工项目风险管理研究 |
姓名: | |
学号: | 200913719 |
保密级别: | 公开 |
学科名称: | 企业管理 |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位年度: | 2012 |
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专业: | |
第一导师姓名: | |
论文外文题名: | Research on Risk Management of Coal Chemical Engineering Project |
论文中文关键词: | |
论文外文关键词: | Coal chemical project Risk identification Risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluatio |
论文中文摘要: |
我国是一个以煤炭为主要能源的国家,煤炭不仅是重要的燃料,还是重要的化工原料。发展现代煤化工在我国“缺油、少气、富煤”的国情下具有战略性意义。但现代煤化工先进技术绝大部分为国外所掌握,我国现代煤化工项目正处于产业化示范工程建设阶段,面临项目投资大,融资难度高,建设周期长,技术不够成熟,环保要求高等诸多挑战。如何有效的识别、评价与控制或规避这些风险是目前煤化工行业普遍关注并亟待解决的热点问题。因此,系统研究煤化工项目风险管理,对于规避和控制煤化工项目建设和生产中的各种风险,促进煤化工产业持续健康发展具有重要的理论与现实意义。
论文在对风险管理和煤化工项目风险管理相关研究现状进行系统综述的基础上,综合运用风险管理、数理统计、模糊数学及综合评价等方法对我国煤化工项目风险管理进行了理论研究和案例分析,主要的研究工作和结果如下:
(1)在文献研究的基础上,首先,结合煤化工项目风险特征,从宏观法规、行业市场、技术、资金、安全运营、组织管理等六个方面识别出风险因素;其次,通过分析筛选确定25个风险因素,建立了煤化工项目风险评价指标体系;最后应用模糊综合评价方法建立了煤化工项目风险多级模糊综合评价模型,并对风险等级进行了确定。
(2)对煤化工项目风险的防控策略与措施进行了探讨。提出了密切关注产业政策,合理规避风险;建立市场信息系统,把握市场动态;加强技术研发创新,提高产品竞争力;加强资金管理,控制财务危机;加强安全生产管理,营造安全文化;加强组织管理,合理配置资源的主要措施。
(3)以神木东源公司为例,对其煤化工项目风险进行了分析,得出其风险等级,并提出了对策与建议。
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论文外文摘要: |
Coal is the main energy of China, and it is not only important fuel, but also an important chemical raw materials. Under the situation of "lack of oil, gas, and rich coal” age in our country, the development of modern coal chemical industry could be strategic significance, but the advanced technology of modern chemical is most being mastered by foreign, China's modern chemical project is in phase of industrialization demonstration project construction facing many challenges such as big project investment, difficult-financing, the long construction cycle, unripe technology, high requirements of environmental protection. How to effectively identify, evaluate, control or avoid these risks are currently hot issue paid attention and urgently solved by the coal chemical industry. Therefore, this paper will study risk management of coal chemical project, which has important theoretical and practical significance for avoiding risk, seizing opportunity, healthy development of the coal chemical industry.
The paper make theoretical research and case analysis on risk management of China's coal chemical project, on the basis of studying the coal chemical project risk management related research status, by comprehensive integrated application of risk management, mathematical statistics, the fuzzy mathematics and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to our country, the main work and conclusions of the paper is the following:
(1)On the basis of literature research, first, combining the coal chemical industry project risk characteristics, the paper identify risk factors from six aspects of the macro regulations, industry market, technology, capital, production safety operation, organization and management; second, through the analysis, the paper determine 25 risk factors, and set up an evaluation index system; finally, by the application of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the paper establish the coal chemical industry project risk multi-grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and determin the risk level.
(2) The paper discuss prevention and control of strategy and measures of the coal chemical industry project risk. The paper put forward main measures from aspects of paying close attention to industrial policy, reasonable avoiding risk; establishing a market information system, and grasping market dynamic; Strengthening technical innovation, enhancing the competitiveness of products; strengthening the financial management, controlling the financial crisis; strengthening the administration of production safety, building a safety culture; strengthening the organization and management, reasonable allocating resources .
(3) In shenmu dongyuan company as an example, the paper analysis its coal chemical industry project risk, and obtain the risk grade, at last, put forward the countermeasure and the suggestion.
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中图分类号: | F224.5 |
开放日期: | 2012-06-26 |