美国CO₂信息分析中心（CDIAC）指出，中国的碳排放总量位于世界第一。据统计资料分析，2018年我国工业行业对GDP和碳排放量的贡献度分别为33.89%和70.23%，重污染行业在工业行业中GDP贡献度和碳排放量贡献度分别为59.6%和84.1%。如何使工业、特别是重污染工业行业在节能减排的约束下实现平稳发展是实践及理论界关注的焦点。
首先，本文用单位经济产出的三废污染综合强度筛选出18个重污染行业；其次，借鉴统计分析等方法，分析了重污染行业碳生产率随时间的演进路径；再次，借鉴面板数据分析技术，分析了影响碳生产率的驱动因素、以及环境规制通过技术创新影响碳生产率的作用路径。实证发现：环境规制、技术创新、企业规模、行业竞争力对18个重污染行业碳生产率均有显著正向作用；能源消费结构、行业利润率对18个重污染行业碳生产率有显著负向作用；且环境规制对重污染行业碳生产率的影响呈现出行业异质性；石油和天然气开采业、黑色金属矿采选业、非金属矿采选业等10个行业处于倒“U”型曲线的上升阶段；石油加工炼焦和核燃料加工业、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业处于倒“U”型曲线下降阶段；煤炭开采和洗选业、食品制造业、饮料酒精茶制造业等6个行业环境规制与碳生产率呈线性关系；技术创新中介效应检验发现，除了黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业和黑色金属矿采选业外，其他16个重污染行业中，技术创新在环境规制对碳生产率的影响中都起中介作用。研究结论一方面能为政府正确使用环境规制工具，有针对性的制定相关政策，在保护环境的基础上确保重污染行业健康发展提供理论支持；另一方面，能够激励企业通过技术创新应对环境规制的约束、提升市场竞争力。

The US CO₂ Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) pointed out that China's total carbon emissions rank first in the world. According to statistical data analysis, the contribution of my country's industrial industry to GDP and carbon emissions in 2018 was 33.89% and 70.23%, respectively. The contribution of heavy polluting industries to GDP and carbon emissions in the industrial sector were 59.6% and 84.1%, respectively. . How to make industries, especially heavy-polluting industries, achieve stable development under the constraints of energy conservation and emission reduction is the focus of practical and theoretical circles.
First, this article uses the comprehensive intensity of the three wastes per unit of economic output to screen out 18 heavily polluting industries; secondly, using statistical analysis and other methods to analyze the evolution path of the carbon productivity of the heavily polluting industries over time; thirdly, drawing on panel data analysis technology, It analyzes the driving factors that affect carbon productivity and the path of environmental regulation that affects carbon productivity through technological innovation. The empirical findings: environmental regulations, technological innovation, enterprise scale, and industry competitiveness all have a significant positive effect on the carbon productivity of 18 heavy polluting industries; energy consumption structure and industry profit margins have a significant negative effect on the carbon productivity of 18 heavy polluting industries ; And the impact of environmental regulations on the carbon productivity of heavily polluting industries shows industry heterogeneity; 10 industries including oil and gas extraction, ferrous metal mining and dressing, and non-metallic mining and dressing are in an inverted U-shaped curve. Rising stage; petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries are in the downward phase of the inverted "U" curve; 6 industries including coal mining and washing, food manufacturing, beverage, alcohol and tea manufacturing are environmental regulations It has a linear relationship with carbon productivity; the test of the intermediary effect of technological innovation found that, in addition to the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and the ferrous metal mining and processing industry, in the other 16 heavily polluting industries, technological innovation is in the impact of environmental regulations on carbon productivity Both play an intermediary role. On the one hand, the research conclusions can provide theoretical support for the government to correctly use environmental regulation tools, formulate relevant policies, and ensure the healthy development of heavy-polluting industries on the basis of protecting the environment; on the other hand, it can encourage enterprises to respond to environmental regulations through technological innovation Restraint and enhance market competitiveness.

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