全球气候变暖背景下，频发的极端气候事件不仅对社会经济造成巨大损失，还导致 生态系统面临严重威胁。陕西省位于我国西北部，是干旱和高温等极端气候事件频发的 地区，对区域农业生产、生态环境和社会发展都造成了一定程度的影响。因此，开展陕 西省干旱、高温、复合干旱和高温的时空特征研究，厘清气象干旱与生态干旱的响应机 制，并量化复合干旱和高温对植被生长的影响，对于科学认识气候变化和开展防灾减灾 工作具有重要意义。本文以陕西省为研究区，基于气象数据和多源遥感数据，通过计算 标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI）、标准化 温度指数（Standardized Temperature Index, STI）、标准化植被总初级生产力（Standardized Gross Primary Productivity, SGPP），分析 2001-2020 年干旱和高温的时空特征；并采用 Copula 函数构建复合干旱和高温指（Standardized Compound Dry-Hot Index, SCDHI）， 识别复合干旱和高温的变化趋势和特征变量；以 SPEI 表征气象干旱，SGPP 表征生态干 旱，基于贝叶斯网络揭示了气象干旱与生态干旱的传播机制；以归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI）作为表征植被生长状况的指标，利用 Vine Copula 模型定量评估了复合干旱和高温事件对植被的影响。主要研究结论如下：

（1）站点尺度上，2001-2020 年陕西省气候存在明显的干湿周期变化，但整体呈变 湿趋势。2001-2009 年是陕西省干旱事件的频发期，其中 2001 年干旱站次比最大，平均 为 51.51%。春季、夏季和秋季总体呈湿润的变化趋势，其中春旱和夏旱是影响年际干旱 的主要原因。陕西省以危害较小的轻中度干旱为主，其中陕北南部和关中地区东部是干 旱的多发区。2001-2020 年陕西省呈不断变暖趋势，2012 年以后高温事件明显增多，其 中 2006 年高温站次比最大，为 87.88%。春季、夏季和秋季高温是年际高温的主要驱动 因素。陕西省以危害较小的轻中度高温为主，仅 2006、2013 和 2016 年发生了极端高温 事件，空间上，陕西省全域高温发生频率升高，高温事件多发区位于陕北南部、关中东 部和陕南东部。

（2）栅格尺度上，2001-2020 年陕西省 SPEI、STI 均呈上升趋势，且复合干旱和高 温事件发生较为频繁，在 20 年中占 71.25%，其中以危害性较小的轻度和中度复合干旱 和高温事件为主，2006 年复合干旱和高温事件影响最大。2001-2020 年陕西省复合干旱 和高温事件累积持续时间最低 135 个月，最高 175 个月，强度变化范围处于-1.51~-1.16之间，烈度变化范围处于-230.43~-197.52 之间。陕北北部干旱和高温事件发生频次高、 时间长、强度大；关中地区发生频次低，但持续时间长、强度大；陕南地区发生频次高、 烈度大，但历时短，强度低。夏季复合干旱和高温是年际复合干旱和高温的主要驱动力。 季节复合干旱和高温呈高高聚集区主要分布在陕北南部和陕南南部，低低聚集区主要分 布在关中地区，重心主要集中在关中地区。

（3）2001-2020 年陕西省 SGPP 呈上升趋势，植被生长状况逐渐改善。陕西省 SGPP 与 SPEI、STI 均呈正相关性，气温的变化对植被生产力影响更显著。气象干旱在陕西省 引发轻度生态干旱的概率相对较高，并具有明显的空间异质性，主要集中在陕北地区。 陕西省引发轻度、中度、重度和极端生态干旱的平均阈值分别为-0.22、-0.20、-0.18、-0.17， 气象干旱并不是导致生态干旱发生的主要因素。陕西省的植被损失率随复合情景等级的 增加而增加，在极端复合情景下，植被损失在 40%、30%、20%和 10%以下的最大概率 分别为 90.5%、78.5%、55.1%、34.0%，且植被损失率较高区域集中在陕北地区。

In the context of global warming, frequent occurrences of drought and high-temperature events, as well as their compound events, pose great economic losses and ecological imbalance, exerting serious impacts on ecosystems. Shaanxi Province, located in the northwest of China and belonging to the inland arid zone, is extremely sensitive to climate changes and prone to droughts and high temperatures, which had certain impacts on agricultural production, ecological environment, and social development in the province. Therefore, it is of great importance to analyze the spatial-time distribution characteristics of drought and high temperature, compound drought and high temperature in Shaanxi Province, to clarify the response mechanisms between meteorological drought and ecological drought, and to quantify the impact of compound drought and high temperature on vegetation growth, which are beneficial for the understanding of climate change's effects and for the implementation of disaster prevention and reduction. This paper, taking Shaanxi Province as the study area and based on meteorological data and multi-source remote sensing data, calculated the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Temperature Index (STI), and the Standardized Gross Primary Productivity (SGPP), analyzed spatial-time distribution characteristics of drought and high temperature from 2001 to 2020 in both site scale and grid scale, applied Copula function to build Standardized Compound Dry-Hot Index (SCDHI), identified the variation trend and characteristic variables of compound drought and high temperature. With SPEI used to represent meteorological drought and SGPP used for ecological drought, this paper revealed the propagation mechanism between meteorological drought and ecological drought based on Bayesian network. With the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) taken as the vegetation growth status indicator, the Vine Copula model was utilized to quantitatively assess the compound drought and high temperature response rule of vegetation. The main results of this paper are as follows:

(1) From 2001 to 2020, there were significant dry-wet cycle changes in Shaanxi Province, but overall, it showed a trend of becoming wetter. The years 2001 to 2009 were a period of frequent drought events, with the highest incidence of drought sites in 2001, reaching an average of 51.51%. Overall, Shaanxi Province showed a wet trend in spring, summer, and autumn, with spring and summer droughts being the main cause of annual droughts. In Shaanxi Province, mild to moderate droughts with lesser damage were the most common. In terms of spatial distribution, the southern part of northern Shaanxi and the eastern part of Guanzhong area were the high-incidence areas of drought. Between 2001 and 2020, Shaanxi Province showed a continuous warming trend. After 2012, high-temperature events increased significantly, with the largest proportion of high-temperature sites in 2006, reaching 87.88%. High temperatures in spring, summer, and autumn were the main drivers of annual high temperatures in Shaanxi Province. Shaanxi Province mainly experienced mild to moderate high temperatures with lesser damage. Only in 2006, 2013, and 2016, extreme high-temperature events occurred. From a spatial perspective, the average high-temperature frequency increased across Shaanxi Province. The areas with a high incidence of high-temperature events were located in the southern part of northern Shaanxi, eastern Guanzhong, and eastern southern Shaanxi. In Shaanxi Province, both droughts and high temperatures showed a posture where the frequency of occurrence was lower with a higher grade.

(2) From a grid-scale perspective, both SPEI and STI in Shaanxi Province showed an upward trend from 2020 to 2021. Compound drought and high-temperature events occurred frequently in the province, accounting for 71.25% of occurrences, mainly characterized by mild to moderate compound events. The year 2006 experienced the most significant impact from compound drought and high-temperature events. The cumulative duration of compound drought and high-temperature events ranged from 135 to 175 months, with intensity varying from -1.51 to -1.16 and severity ranging from -230.43 to -197.52. In the northern part of Shaanxi, drought and high-temperature events were frequent, prolonged, and intense, while in the Guanzhong region, although the frequency was low, the duration was long, and the intensity was high. In southern Shaanxi, the frequency and intensity of events were high, but they were short-lived and of low intensity. Summer compound drought and high-temperature events were the main drivers of interannual compound drought and high temperatures. The global Moran's I index values for spring, summer, autumn, and winter in 2020 were 0.780, 0.705, 0.829, and 0.725, respectively. High-high aggregation areas were mainly distributed in the southern part of northern Shaanxi and the southern part of southern Shaanxi, while low-low aggregation areas were mainly located in the Guanzhong region. The focal point of compound drought and high-temperature eventsmainly shifted within the Guanzhong region.

(3) From 2001 to 2020, SGPP in Shaanxi Province exhibited an upward trend, indicating an improvement in vegetation growth conditions. SGPP in Shaanxi Province showed positive correlations with SPEI and STI, with temperature changes having a more significant impact on vegetation productivity. Meteorological drought in Shaanxi Province had a relatively high probability of causing mild ecological drought, showing distinct spatial heterogeneity with ecological drought primarily concentrated in the northern regions. The average thresholds for causing mild, moderate, severe, and extreme ecological drought in Shaanxi Province were -0.22, -0.20, -0.18, and -0.17, respectively. Meteorological drought was not the primary factor leading to ecological drought. Vegetation loss rates in Shaanxi Province increased with the severity of compound scenarios, with the highest probabilities of vegetation loss falling below the 40th, 30th, 20th, and 10th percentiles being 90.5%, 78.5%, 55.1%, and 34.0%, respectively, under extreme compound scenarios. Areas with high vegetation loss rates were concentrated in the northern regions of Shaanxi. Different vegetation types exhibited varying degrees of vulnerability to compound drought and high temperatures, with croplands being the most vulnerable, followed by forests and grasslands in Shaanxi Province.

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