森林火灾救援现场火行为变化复杂，易发生林火消防员被火围困而造成伤亡。及时做出撤离决策是一种有效的防范策略。当前研究主要聚焦人员决策能力提升和辅助撤离决策方法开发，提升了决策效率。而在实际救援中，撤离决策仍大多取决于林火消防员的主观判断，耗时较长且准确性较差。因此，亟需确定一种客观的策略协助林火消防员确定撤离时机，及时作出撤离决策。

本文以森林火灾消防员在森林火灾救援过程中的撤离时机选择为研究对象，采用WUIVAC（Wildland-Urban Interface Evacuation）模型作为理论工具进行撤离触发缓冲区开发，分析缓冲区变化情况，为森林火灾消防员提供用于确定撤离时机的气象阈值撤离触发点。采用WUIVAC模型对East Troublesome Fire的模拟扑救场景进行研究，选择FlamMap软件对可能出现的9种气象条件组合进行森林火灾蔓延模拟，结合当天作业的通行方案建立29种适用于模型的森林火灾救援战术场景，借助ArcGIS软件实现撤离触发缓冲区开发；选择相关指标分析模型在森林火灾救援场景中输出的有效性和稳定性，结合缓冲区参数分析结果，探讨缓冲区对不同参数的敏感性，提出基于气象参数撤离触发点的撤离时机选择策略；使用WUIVAC模型对“3.30西昌森林火灾救援”案例进行分析，依据现场气象条件变化对缓冲区的影响提出风速阈值撤离触发点，结合现场情况证实触发点在真实森林火灾救援作业过程中的使用价值。

结果表明，基于WUIVAC模型开发的缓冲区在森林火灾救援场景中有效地反映了参数输入的变化，在常规和极端天气条件下数据波动幅度分别为3.4%和1.7%，均表现出良好的输出稳定性。在气象参数方面，模型能有效反映风速变化的影响。随风速增加，缓冲区面积扩展比例从12.7%增长至21.6%，增长速率从4.23%/mph提升至7.20%/mph。通过模拟结果可以确定风速阈值作为撤离触发点，为实际森林火灾救援工作中的消防员提供撤离决策支持。结合实例分析，证实了这种策略在真实作业中的应用价值。由此可以得出WUIVAC模型在森林火灾救援场景中具有良好的适用性，模型能够为森林火灾消防员提供有效的风速撤离触发点用于撤离时机选择，进而避免火灾围困导致的人员伤亡。研究通过将撤离时机的决定机制从以往的经验主导转为基于实证的判断，在一定程度上推动了从经验主导的救援策略向科学化救援策略的转型，为森林火灾消防员在作业过程中撤离时机选择提供借鉴。

The forest fire rescue scene is characterized by complex and dynamic fire behavior, often leading to the entrapment and casualties of forest firefighters. Timely evacuation decision-making serves as an effective preventive measure to mitigate such risks. The current study primarily focuses on enhancing personnel decision-making capabilities and developing methods to assist in evacuation decisions, thereby improving decision efficiency. However, in practical rescue operations, evacuation decisions largely rely on the subjective judgment of forest firefighters, which is time-consuming and less accurate. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish an objective strategy to assist forest firefighters in determining the timing of evacuation and making timely evacuation decisions.

This study examines the selection of evacuation timing for forest firefighters during forest fire rescue operations. The WUIVAC (Wildland-Urban Interface Evacuation) model is employed as a theoretical tool for developing evacuation trigger buffer zones, analyzing the changes in buffer zones, and providing meteorological threshold evacuation trigger points for forest firefighters to determine the evacuation timing. By simulating firefighting scenarios of the East Troublesome Fire using the WUIVAC model, nine possible meteorological conditions are simulated using FlamMap software. Furthermore, 29 forest fire rescue tactical scenarios applicable to the model are established based on the operational plans of the day and evacuation trigger buffer zones are developed using ArcGIS software. The effectiveness and stability of the model's outputs in forest fire rescue scenarios are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the buffer zones to different parameters is discussed. A strategy for selecting evacuation timing based on meteorological parameters as evacuation trigger points is proposed.Through the analysis of the "3.30 Xichang Forest Fire Rescue" case using the WUIVAC model, wind speed threshold evacuation trigger points are proposed based on the impact of on-site meteorological conditions on the buffer zones. The value of the trigger points in real forest fire rescue operations is confirmed based on the field conditions.

The results demonstrate that the buffer zones developed based on the WUIVAC model effectively reflect the changes in input parameters in forest fire rescue scenarios, with fluctuations of 3.4% and 1.7% under normal and extreme weather conditions, respectively, showing good output stability. In terms of meteorological parameters, the model effectively reflects the impact of wind speed changes. As wind speed increases, the proportion of buffer zone expansion increases from 12.7% to 21.6%, with the growth rate rising from 4.23%/mph to 7.20%/mph. The simulation results enable the determination of wind speed thresholds as evacuation trigger points, providing evacuation decision support for firefighters in actual forest fire rescue work. The application value of this strategy in real operations is confirmed through case analysis.It is concluded that the WUIVAC model exhibits good applicability in forest fire rescue scenarios, providing forest firefighters with effective wind speed evacuation trigger points for evacuation timing selection, thereby preventing casualties resulting from fire entrapment. By shifting the decision-making mechanism for evacuation timing from experience-driven to evidence-based judgment, this research has to some extent promoted the transition from experience-driven rescue strategies to scientific rescue strategies, offering insights for forest firefighters in the selection of evacuation timing during operations.