过去半个世纪，旱区是开展生态恢复、实现全球土地退化“零增长”目标的关键区域。在全球气候变化及强烈人类活动背景下，围绕旱区生态系统服务驱动因素的研究是当下研究热点。其中，降水和畜牧生产是影响旱区生态系统服务的关键因素。基于此，本文以黄土高原为研究区，基于全球牲畜格网数据集（Gridded livestock of the world，GLW）、净初级生产力（Net primary productivity，NPP）与气候、地形、植被、人类活动强度（Human activity intensity，HAI）、国内生产总值（Gross domestic product，GDP）等多种环境因子，利用随机森林回归方法模拟研究区放牧密度，并量化地上可用生物量（Aboveground available biomass，AGBavailable），开展了生态恢复后不同时期（2010和2020年）黄土高原区域尺度放牧强度估算。在此基础上，结合畜牧经济数据，通过结构方程模型（Structural equation model，SEM）和多尺度地理加权回归模型（Multiscale geographical weighted regression，MGWR）探究了不同时期畜牧生产对黄土高原四项关键生态系统服务（产水量、产草量、土壤保持、防风固沙）总体影响与空间异质性影响及其变化。最终，利用二维阈值模型，探究了畜牧生产和降水梯度对四项服务的联合效应，明确不同降水梯度下最大畜牧生产因子水平。主要研究结果如下：
    （1）2010～2020年，黄土高原地区禁牧效果显著，高强度放牧区得到有效控制，尤其是在黄土高原耕作区。其中，低放牧强度区面积增长4.58%，中、高放牧强度区面积分别减少2.15%和2.43%。
    （2）2010～2020年，黄土高原四项生态系统服务平均值增长率均超过20%，生态恢复成效显著。总体上，畜牧经济对生态系统服务表现为消极影响，其路径系数从-0.76增至-0.95；放牧强度对生态系统服务产生直接的积极影响，路径系数由0.37增至0.47。空间上，放牧强度对四项服务均产生广泛负影响，仅在2020年于局部区域展现较低程度的积极影响；但畜牧经济因子（牛存栏量、羊存栏量、奶类产量、牧业产值）对四项服务在作用方向与影响强度上存在差异，表现出显著空间异质性特征。
    （3）畜牧生产影响四项生态系统服务对降水梯度的响应阈值。在放牧密度影响下，四项服务的降水阈值分别从375.35 mm、254.54 mm、615.16 mm、688.71 mm降至331.93 mm、129.31 mm、602.09 mm、407.91 mm。降水梯度和放牧密度对四项服务均产生协同效应，放牧密度在一定程度上缓解了四项服务对水分条件的依赖。
    （4）黄土高原畜牧区需降低畜牧生产因子水平以维持旱区生态系统服务，降水量高于600 mm耕作区具有畜牧生产潜力，但实际增量的确定还需结合植被恢复现状综合评估，以保护生态恢复成果。
       综上，本研究通过系统的数据分析，阐明了畜牧生产对生态系统服务的影响以及降水梯度和畜牧生产对生态系统服务联合效应的内在机制，并揭示了不同降水梯度下畜牧生产的安全空间，可为旱区畜牧生产及生态系统服务的协调发展提供科学依据。

       Over the past half-century, drought-stricken areas have been the key regions for ecological restoration and achieving the goal of "zero growth" in global land degradation. Under the background of global climate change and intense human activities, the research on the driving factors of ecosystem services in arid areas is a current research hotspot. Among them, precipitation and livestock production are the key factors affecting ecosystem services in arid areas. Based on this, this paper takes the Loess Plateau as the research area and is based on the Gridded livestock of the world (GLW) dataset and Net primary productivity. (NPP) and various environmental factors such as climate, terrain, vegetation, Human activity intensity (HAI), and Gross domestic product (GDP), the grazing density in the study area was simulated using the random forest regression method. And quantify the Aboveground available biomass (AGBavailable) to estimate the grazing intensity at the regional scale of the Loess Plateau in different periods (2010 and 2020) after ecological restoration. On this basis, combined with livestock economic data, through the Structural equation model (SEM) and the Multiscale geographical weighted regression model, (MGWR) To explore the overall impact and spatial heterogeneity impact of livestock production in different periods on four key ecosystem services (water production, grass production, soil conservation, and windbreak and sand fixation) of the Loess Plateau and their changes. Using the two-dimensional threshold model, the combined effect of livestock production and precipitation gradients on the four services was analyzed to clarify the level of the maximum livestock production factor under different precipitation gradients. The main research results are as follows:
       (1) From 2010 to 2020, the grazing ban in the Loess Plateau region achieved remarkable results. The high-intensity grazing areas were effectively controlled, especially in the cultivated areas of the Loess Plateau. Among them, the area of the low grazing intensity zone increased by 4.58%, while the areas of the medium and high grazing intensity zones decreased by 2.15% and 2.43% respectively. 
       (2) From 2010 to 2020, the average growth rate of the four ecosystem services on the Loess Plateau all exceeded 20%, and the ecological restoration achieved remarkable results. Overall, the livestock economy shows a negative impact on ecosystem services, and its path coefficient increases from -0.76 to -0.95. Grazing intensity has a direct positive impact on ecosystem services, and the path coefficient increases from 0.37 to 0.47. Spatially, grazing intensity had extensive negative impacts on all four services, and only showed a relatively low degree of positive impact in local areas in 2020. However, the economic factors of animal husbandry (cattle inventory, sheep inventory, milk production, and pastoral output value) have differences in the direction of action and the intensity of influence on the four services, showing significant spatial heterogeneity characteristics.
       (3) Livestock production affects the response thresholds of four ecosystem services to precipitation gradients. Under the influence of grazing density, the precipitation thresholds of the four services decreased from 375.35 mm, 254.54 mm, 615.16 mm, and 688.71 mm to 331.93 mm, 129.31 mm, 602.09 mm, and 407.91 mm respectively. The precipitation gradient and grazing density all have a synergistic effect on the four services, and the grazing density alleviates the dependence of the four services on water to a certain extent. 
       (4) In the pastoral areas of the Loess Plateau, the levels of livestock production factors need to be reduced to maintain ecosystem services in arid areas. The cultivated areas with precipitation higher than 600 mm have the potential for livestock production. However, the determination of the actual increment still needs to be comprehensively evaluated in combination with the current situation of vegetation restoration to protect the achievements of ecological restoration.
       In conclusion, through systematic data analysis, this study has clarified the impact of livestock production on ecosystem services and the internal mechanism of the combined effect of precipitation gradients and livestock production on ecosystem services. It has also revealed the safety space of livestock production under different precipitation gradients, which can provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of livestock production and ecosystem services in arid areas.

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