在全球经济向数智经济转型的背景下，企业发展的核心要素正从物质资本转向人力资本。高管作为人力资本的关键载体，其知识、技能、领导力在推动企业创新与可持续发展方面发挥着重要作用。因此，有效评估高管人力资本的价值对于企业科学配置高层次人才、优化激励机制具有重要意义。尽管人力资本价值评估一直是研究热点，但实践中常用的成本或收益的评估模型无法充分反映人力资本的不确定性特征，难以全面揭示其价值属性，也无法准确量化其对企业可持续发展的潜在价值。因此，有必要从不确定性视角出发，探索新的评估方法。

本文以高管人力资本价值评估为研究对象，基于价值分配理论、生产要素理论、实物期权理论和模糊数学理论，构建了DCF-模糊BS组合评估模型。首先，系统梳理人力资本价值评估和实物期权相关文献，界定相关概念，深入分析现有高管人力资本价值评估方法的适用性与局限性；其次，采用DCF法测算高管人力资本现有价值，运用梯形模糊数对传统B-S模型中的标的资产现价和执行价格参数进行模糊化处理，建立改进的模糊B-S模型以评估高管人力资本潜在价值；最后，以爱尔眼科为案例进行实例分析。研究结果表明：（1）高管人力资本价值包含现有价值和潜在价值两个维度，传统评估方法仅能有效计量静态的现有价值，而引入模糊数学理论的实物期权法则能全面评估动态的潜在价值。（2）运用梯形模糊数对关键参数进行优化，能够有效克服传统实物期权方法参数刚性局限，显著提升评估模型在复杂环境下对不确定性价值的适配与计量能力。（3）通过爱尔眼科的案例验证表明，所构建的组合模型在高管人力资本价值评估中展现出显著的科学性与实践可行性。

本文构建的综合评估模型考虑了高管人力资本的现有价值和潜在价值。可为人力资本价值评估的理论探索提供有益借鉴，为企业管理层在高管人力资本投资决策方面提供参考，同时有助于推动相关实践应用的专业化发展。

Against the backdrop of the global economy's transition to a digital and intelligent economy, the core drivers of enterprise development are shifting from material capital to human capital. As key carriers of human capital, executives' knowledge, skills, and leadership play a vital role in driving corporate innovation and sustainable development. Therefore, effectively assessing the value of executive human capital is crucial for enterprises to scientifically allocate high-level talent and optimize incentive mechanisms. Although human capital valuation has long been a research focus, conventional cost- or income-based evaluation models fail to adequately reflect the uncertain nature of human capital, cannot fully reveal its value attributes, and are unable to accurately quantify its potential contribution to sustainable corporate development. Consequently, it is necessary to explore new valuation approaches from the perspective of uncertainty.

This study focuses on the evaluation of executive human capital value, constructing a DCF-Fuzzy BS combined evaluation model based on value distribution theory, factors of production theory, real options theory, and fuzzy mathematics theory. First, it systematically reviews the literature on human capital value evaluation and real options, defines relevant concepts, and conducts an in-depth analysis of the applicability and limitations of existing methods for evaluating executive human capital value. Second, the DCF method is employed to measure the existing value of executive human capital, while trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to fuzzify the parameters of the underlying asset's current price and strike price in the traditional B-S model, establishing an improved fuzzy B-S model to assess the potential value of executive human capital. Finally, a case study of Aier Eye Hospital is conducted for empirical analysis.The research results indicate: (1) Executive human capital value encompasses two dimensions—existing value and potential value. Traditional evaluation methods can only effectively measure the static existing value, whereas the real options method incorporating fuzzy mathematics theory can comprehensively assess the dynamic potential value. (2) Optimizing key parameters using trapezoidal fuzzy numbers effectively overcomes the rigidity limitations of traditional real options methods, significantly enhancing the model's adaptability and measurement capability for uncertain value in complex environments. (3) The case study of Aier Eye Hospital demonstrates that the constructed combined model exhibits notable scientific rigor and practical feasibility in evaluating executive human capital value.

The comprehensive valuation model developed in this study incorporates both existing and potential value of executive human capital. It can provide valuable theoretical references for human capital valuation research, offer practical guidance for corporate management in executive human capital investment decisions, and contribute to the professional development of related practical applications.

[1] 李维华,曾宪林.人力资本价值的衡量[J].中国煤炭,2000,(07):37-39+60+64.

[2] Carmeli A, Schaubroeck J. How leveraging human resource capital with its competitive distinctiveness enhances the performance of commercial and public organizations[J]. Human Resource Management,2005,44(4):391-412.

[3] 李洋.人力资源群体价值计量模型的创新[J].统计与决策,2007,(17):32-34.

[4] Onkelinx J, Manolova T S, Edelman L F. The human factor: Investments in employee human capital, productivity, and SME internationalization[J]. Journal of International Management,2016, 22(4):351-364.

[5] 燕红忠,唐汝.新式教育、人力资本与工资溢价——基于上海商业储蓄银行职员档案的实证研究[J].财经研究,2020,46(11):138-153.

[6] 寇军,赵泽洪.实现人力资本价值最大化的策略研究——基于个体、组织、社会三因素视角[J].成都行政学院学报,2021,(03):44-48.

[7] 顾如意.企业家人力资本价值影响因素实证分析[J].财会学习,2019,(31):193-194+196.

[8] 金蓉.绩效管理对提升人力资本价值与经济增长的作用研究[J].中国集体经济,2024,(30):149-152.

[9] Brummet R L, Flamholtz E G, Pyle W C. Human Resource measurement-A challenge for accountants[J]. The accounting review,1968,43(2):217-224.

[10] Flamholtz E. A model for human resource valuation: A stochastic process with service rewards[J]. The Accounting Review,1971,46(2):253-267.

[11] Hekimian J S, Jones C H. Put people on your balance sheet[J]. Harvard business review, 1967,45(1): 105-113.

[12] Lev B, Schwartz A. On the use of the economic concept of human capital in financial statements[J]. The accounting review,1971,46(1):103-112.

[13] Park J J. Assessing the materiality of financial misstatements[J]. J. Corp. L.,2008,34:513.

[14] 王宏智,孙金俊.基于改进C-D生产函数模型的中国科技创新水平评价[J].统计与决策,2020,36(18):73-76.

[15] 罗进辉,李雪,黄泽悦.关键高管的人力资本价值评估——基于关键高管突然去世事件的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2016,(05):127-143.

[16] Dombrow J, Rodriguez M, Sirmans C F. The market value of mature trees in single-family housing markets[J]. Appraisal Journal,2000,68(1):39-43.

[17] Ellsworth R. The sales comparison approach and the appraisal of complete facilities[J]. The Appraisal Journal,2001,69(3):266.

[18] Brummet R L, Flamholtz E G, Pyle W C. Human Resource Accounting: A tool to increase managerial effectiveness[J]. Management Accounting,1969,51(2):12-15.

[19] Flamholtz E. Human Resource Accounting: A Review of Theory And Research [C]. Academy of Management Proceedings. Briarcliff Manor, NY 10510: Academy of Management,1972,1972(1):174-177.

[20] Damodaran A.投资估价:评估任何资产价值的工具和技术[M].清华大学出版社, 1999.

[21] 陈文晶,杨玥,万岩,等.组织中人力资本多层级价值评估体系构建[J].中国人力资源开发,2018,35(05):117-126.

[22] 叶星.基于收益分成法的房地产上市公司高管人力资本价值评估研究[D].江西财经大学,2019.

[23] 俞扬.电力企业基于“三维评估模型”的人力资本价值管理[J].现代商贸工业,2021,42(08):105-106.

[24] 康晓沛,陈世桥,凌峰.证券业企业人力资本价值评估——以西部证券为例[J].中国商论,2022,(19):105-108.

[25] 曾瑞勇,王克,郝翡.基于马斯洛需求层次理论的企业人力资本价值评估研究——以中芯国际为例[J].财务管理研究,2023,(06):69-75.

[26] 汪家义.人力资源价值的计量方法研究[J].统计与决策,2008,(04):170-172.

[27] 张攀平.科技企业人力资本价值评估探讨[J].财会通讯,2012,(02):56-57.

[28] 王冲冲,王海芳.基于实物期权的制造业企业人力资本价值评估[J].财会月刊,2015,(18):58-63.

[29] 黄生权,胡玮祺.多阶段人力资本投资:基于复合实物期权理论[J].中国人力资源开发,2017,(02):130-136.

[30] Patra D G. An analysis of application of key financial ratios for human resources valuation in organizations[J]. International Journal of Management,2020,10(4):2019.

[31] 徐晨.基于实物期权的知识密集型企业人力资源价值评估[D].云南财经大学,2020.

[32] Myers S C. Determinants of corporate borrowing[J]. Journal of financial economics,1977,5(2):147-175.

[33] Black F, Scholes M. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities[J]. Journal of political economy,1973,81(3):637-654.

[34] Cox J C, Ross S A, Rubinstein M. Option pricing: A simplified approach[J]. Journal of financial Economics,1979,7(3):229-263.

[35] Geske R. The valuation of compound options[J]. Journal of financial economics,1979,7(1):63-81.

[36] Schwartz E S, Moon M. Rational pricing of internet companies[J]. Financial analysts journal, 2000, 56(3): 62-75.

[37] Inthavongsa I, Drebenstedt C, Bongaerts J, et al. Real options decision framework: Strategic operating policies for open pit mine planning[J]. Resources Policy, 2016, 47: 142-153.

[38] Jones D A. Using real options theory to explain patterns in the valuation of research and development expenditures[J]. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2018, 51(3): 575-593.

[39] 陈偲绮.独角兽企业的实物期权估值模型探究——以容百科技为例[J].现代营销(学苑版),2021,(12):31-33.

[40] 谷锦锦,李志刚.基于模糊实物期权的独角兽企业价值评估[J].科技创业月刊,2021,34(03):9-12.

[41] Zadeh L A. Fuzzy sets, information and control[J]. Information and control,1965,8(3):338-353.

[42] Buckley J J. The fuzzy mathematics of finance[J]. Fuzzy sets and systems,1987,21(3):257-273.

[43] Muzzioli S, Torricelli C. A model for pricing an option with a fuzzy payoff[J]. Fuzzy Economic Review,2009,vi(1):49-87.

[44] Muzzioli S, Torricelli C. A multiperiod binomial model for pricing options in a vague world[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2004,28(5):861-887.

[45] Wang J, Hwang W L. A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model[J]. Omega,2007,35(3):247-257.

[46] Qin Z, Li X. Option pricing formula for fuzzy financial market[J]. Journal of uncertain Systems,2008,2(1):17-21.

[47] Tavakkolnia A. A binomial tree valuation approach for compound real options with fuzzy phase-specific volatility[C].2016 12th International Conference on Industrial Engineering (ICIE). IEEE, 2016:73-78.

[48] Ersen H Y, Tas O, Kahraman C. Intuitionistic fuzzy real-options theory and its application to solar energy investment projects[J]. Engineering Economics,2018,29(2):140-150.

[49] 赵振武,唐万生.模糊实物期权理论在风险投资项目价值评价中的应用[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(01):49-51.

[50] 胡攀.模糊实物期权方法在煤层气项目价值评估中的应用[J].云南民族大学学报(自然科学版),2017,26(01):84-88.

[51] 许泽想,梅丽霞.企业家人力资本价值评估方法研究——基于现金流折现法与模糊数学分部估值法的比较[J].财会通讯,2020,(08):173-176.

[52] 郭燕青,孙培原.基于实物期权理论的互联网企业数据资产评估研究[J].商学研究,2022,29(01):77-84.

[53] 马婧,骆公志.基于模糊实物期权的公司价值评估研究[J].中国物价,2022,(11):81-84.

[54] 张雨晴,李朝红.企业高管人力资本价值评估研究——以数字政通公司为例[J].全国流通经济,2024,(16):137-141.

[55] Lev B, Schwartz A. On the use of the economic concept of human capital in financial statements[J]. The accounting review,1971,46(1):103-112.

[56] Layard R. Schultz, Theodore W., Investment in Human Capital; The Role of Education and of Research, New York, The Free Press, 1971, xii+ 272 pp.($8.75)[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1971,53(4):692-693.

[57] Baron R A. The role of affect in the entrepreneurial process[J]. Academy of management Review,2008,33(2):328-340.

[58] 冯子标,焦斌龙.论人力资本营运[J].管理世界,1999,(05):203-204.

[59] 李忠民.人力资本:一个理论框架及其对中国一些问题的解释[M].经济科学出版社,1999:85-91.

[60] 葛玉辉.人力资本原理:基于经济与管理相结合的视角:the economic and management perspectives[M].经济管理出版社,2010.

[61] McGuire J W, Chiu J S Y, Elbing A O. Executive incomes, sales and profits[J]. The American Economic Review,1962:753-761.

[62] Rose C. Does female board representation influence firm performance? The Danish evidence[J]. Corporate governance: An international review,2007,15(2):404-413.

[63] 徐向艺,王俊韡,巩震.高管人员报酬激励与公司治理绩效研究——一项基于深、沪A股上市公司的实证分析[J].中国工业经济,2007,(02):94-100.

[64] 黄继承,盛明泉.高管背景特征具有信息含量吗?[J].管理世界,2013,(09):144-153+171.

[65] Hambrick D C, Mason P A. Upper echelons: The organization as a reflection of its top managers[J]. Academy of management review,1984,9(2):193-206.

[66] Hambrick D. Top management groups: A conceptual integration and reconsideration of the “team” label. In staw B M and cummings research in organizational behavior. Greenwich,1994,11(16):171-241.

[67] 张丽敏.高管特征对中国公司资本结构的影响[D].首都经济贸易大学,2016.

[68] 翁辰,马良泽.高管薪酬激励与企业创新——基于中国上市公司的经验证据[J].重庆大学学报:社会科学版, 2022, 28(3):15.

[69] 孙世敏,张汉南,马智颖.高管薪酬粘性区间效应及其影响机理研究[J].南大商学评论, 2020, 000(001):56-74.

[70] Becker G S .Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition[J].NBER Books, 1994, 18(1):556.

[71] 杨阳,程惠芳,李凯.人力资本、创新与高技术产品出口竞争力分析[J].统计与决策,2016,(13):98-102.

[72] 章道云,邓学芬,黄坤.上市公司人力资本对企业净利润贡献率的实证研究[J].宏观经济研究,2011,(07):71-76.

[73] 罗进辉,李雪,黄泽悦.关键高管的人力资本价值评估——基于关键高管突然去世事件的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2016,(05):127-143.

[74] 谢菁.人才支撑战略下人才资本贡献率研究——以L公司为例[J].经营与管理,2019,(10):73-76.

[75] 汪奕东.基于改进的C-D函数对互联网企业高管人力资本价值评估[D].杭州电子科技大学,2021.

[76] 曹鹏.基于Grossman模型的健康人力资本折旧测算与分析[D].天津财经大学,2018.