水害事故是威胁煤矿安全生产的五大灾害之一。近年来，虽然煤矿水害事故逐年减少，但仍然时有发生，其严重后果使得煤矿安全生产形势依然严峻。大量实践表明，险兆事件管理能有效减少重大安全事故的发生。然而，险兆事件管理在国内尚未普及，针对煤矿水害险兆事件的管理又尚在探索阶段。因此，本文以煤矿五大灾害中的水害事故作为研究对象，将险兆事件管理引入煤矿水害的防治管理中，从而有效提升煤矿水害防治的效果。本文的主要研究内容和成果如下： （1）从煤矿水害防治和险兆事件管理两方面进行文献综述。总结了目前国内外相关研究存在的不足，提出了论文的研究目的和技术路线。在明确煤矿水害险兆事件定义的基础上，结合三类危险源及安全事故致因层次模型，构建了煤矿水害险兆事件的致因模型，并依据该模型对煤矿水害险兆事件进行分类和分级。 （2）通过103例水害案例和文献调研，从个人、组织、环境、管理四方面对煤矿水害险兆事件影响因素进行了初步分析。运用关键事件访谈法，对影响因素进行了验证筛选，最终得到包括4个一级指标和14个二级指标的影响因素指标体系。选用AHP-模糊综合评价法，为该指标体系的评价结果进行了等级划分。 （3）应用上述指标体系，对某矿水害险兆事件管理现状进行了综合评价，依据评价结果，从个人、管理、组织、环境四方面制定了详细的煤矿水害险兆事件管理提升对策。 本研究在理论上明确了煤矿水害险兆事件的定义和致因机理，构建了煤矿水害险兆事件影响因素指标体系，在一定程度上丰富了煤矿水害致因研究的理论基础；实践方面，运用AHP-模糊综合评价法对某矿水害险兆事件的管理进行了等级评定，并根据评分制定了提升措施。实践表明，该评价体系对煤矿水害防治工作具有指导意义，应用管理对策后该矿水害险兆事件的管理水平有效提升了17.9%（综合评分从2.79上升至3.29）。

Coal mine flood accident is one of the top five hazards to coal mine safety production. In recent years, although coal mine flood has been decreased, sometimes they still occur. Thus, its serious influence still made the coal mine safety situation grim.Many practice confirmed that near-miss management can effectively reduce the occurrence of major accidents. However, the near-miss management has not been popularized in China and the related research for coal mine flood prevention is still in the exploration phase.Therefore, in order to improve coal mine flood prevention effectively , this study made coal mine flood accident as the research subject, aimed at injecting near-miss management into safety management of coal mine flood prevention.The main contents and results are as follows: (1) Making a literature review from two aspects: coal mine flood control and near-miss management.Summed up the shortcomings of current research both in China and abroad, presenting the research objectives and technical route. On the basis of a clear definition of coal mine flood near-miss, combining three types of hazards and accidents cause of the hierarchical model, constructing a coal mine flood nearimiss causation model,and based on this model do a classification and grading of coal mine flood near-miss events. (2) Coal mine flood near-miss event influencing factors have been analyzed from four aspects: individuals, organizations, environment and management based on 103 cases of water damage cases and literature review. Verified screened influence factors by the key event interview and got index system included 4-level indicators and 14 secondary indicators. Selected AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation conducted grading index system for the evaluation results. (3) Using application of the index system above and making a comprehensive evaluation for coal mine flood risk management. Based on the evaluation results, developing a detailed coal mine water disaster risk management to enhance safety management level from individual, management, organization and environment. In this study, the author clarified the definition and the mechanism cause of coal mine flood near-miss, constructiong the coal mine flood influencing factors index system.Thus, the study expanded the coal mine water damage causation theoretical basis; During practice process, the AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method has been used to rate a mine's flood near-miss management level and developed related managment measures according to rating above. Finally, the result showed that the evaluation system has a guiding significance for coal mine water disaster prevention and control work. After using the application management strategies, the mine's flood near-miss management level has improve 17.9%( composite score rose from 2.79 to 3.29).