论文中文题名: | 基于云日内变化的复杂地形地表 太阳辐射估算 |
姓名: | |
学号: | 21210226086 |
保密级别: | 保密(1年后开放) |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 085700 |
学科名称: | 工学 - 资源与环境 |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位级别: | 工学硕士 |
学位年度: | 2024 |
培养单位: | 西安科技大学 |
院系: | |
专业: | |
研究方向: | 定量遥感应用 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
论文提交日期: | 2024-06-16 |
论文答辩日期: | 2024-06-04 |
论文外文题名: | Estimation of Surface Solar Radiation over Complex Terrain Based on Cloud Diurnal Variations |
论文中文关键词: | 地表太阳辐射 ; Himawari-8 ; Libradtran ; 参数化模型 ; 复杂地形 |
论文外文关键词: | Surface solar radiation ; Himawari-8 ; Libradtran ; Parameterized model ; Complex terrain |
论文中文摘要: |
地表太阳辐射是地球表面主要能量来源,也是太阳能资源评估、生态、水文、气候等模型及相关研究的重要变量。其日内变化影响局地气候模式、太阳能光伏电站集中并网安全等,因此估算日内地表太阳辐射具有重要意义。本文选取黄土高原及其周边为研究区,首先基于新一代静止气象卫星Himawari-8云产品(云光学厚度、云粒子有效半径等)分析了区域云特性时空变化特征。其次基于Libradtran辐射传输模型构建了云透射率参数化模型,将其与Iqbal C晴空模型结合,同时考虑地形阻挡,形成了综合考虑大气、云和地形影响的地表太阳辐射估算模型。在此基础上,利用Himawari-8云及气溶胶产品、MODIS大气产品等,模拟了日内(每10分钟)地表太阳辐射,并基于地面站点实测数据验证模型精度。为进一步评估模型的适用性,模拟了2020年黄土高原及其周边地区日内地表太阳辐射空间分布,在不同大气条件下与Himawari-8地表下行短波辐射数据进行对比,并分析了其时空变化特征,量化了云和地形对地表太阳辐射空间分布的影响。本文的主要研究结论如下: (1)黄土高原及其周边地区云频率(CF)、云光学厚度(COT)和云粒子有效半径(CER)存在明显的时空分布差异。其中,CF和COT高值区主要集中在南部,CER则呈现与之相反的空间分布格局。在四个季节中,CF夏季均值最大,COT秋季均值最大,而CER最大均值主要出现在春季和冬季。在日内变化上,CF值在中午高,上午和下午低,而COT的日内变化则呈相反趋势。CER值从上午到下午呈增加趋势,在北京时间17:00达到最大。 (2)基于Libradtran辐射传输模型,根据不同云相(水云、冰云)分别选择云光学厚度、云粒子有效半径以及太阳天顶角等参数计算得到云透射率查找表,采用自定义函数的方式探究云透射率与关键参数的关系,从而确定云透射率参数化模型,通过最小二乘拟合获取模型参数,所构建参数化模型拟合度达到0.99以上,均方根误差小于0.1。 (3)结合晴空模型、本文构建的云透射率参数化模型、Himawari-8云及气溶胶产品、MODIS大气产品以及DEM产品等,估算了每10分钟的晴空、云天以及全天空地表太阳辐射,并利用地面站点实测数据验证模型精度。其中,晴空与全天空验证结果相关系数(R)均大于0.9,云天R均大于0.6,晴空、云天以及全天空在七个站点均方根误差(RMSE)均值分别为91.36 W/m2、146.87 W/m2、103.68 W/m2,平均偏差(MBE)均值分别为54.45 W/m2、-65.77 W/m2、30.00 W/m2,结果表明各站点晴空、云天以及全天空地表太阳辐射估算结果与实测数据之间相关性较好,总体精度较好,同时也存在一定的高、低估现象。 (4)本文所构建模型模拟的空间分布与Himawari-8地表下行短波辐射数据具有较好的一致性,且本文模型能够呈现空间分布细节特征。研究区直接辐射、散射辐射和总辐射具有显著的空间分布差异和季节差异,其中直接辐射和总辐射在空间分布上呈现出西高东低、北高南低的特点,同时在春季值最高,秋冬季最低;而散射辐射的空间分布与之相反,季节上呈现出夏季最高,冬季最低。直接辐射、散射辐射和总辐射日内变化均呈现先增后减的趋势,在中午达到最大值。同时,发现云与高程的交互作用对地表太阳射空间分布的影响最大,因此在复杂地形区域地表太阳辐射估算中考虑高程以及云的影响是十分必要的。 |
论文外文摘要: |
Surface solar radiation is the primary energy source for the Earth's surface and a crucial variable for assessing solar resources, ecological systems, hydrology, climate models, and related studies. Its diurnal variation impacts local climate models, as well as the safe integration of solar photovoltaic power plants into the grid. Therefore, estimating the diurnal surface solar radiation is of great significance. This study focuses on the Loess Plateau and its surrounding areas. Firstly, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional cloud properties, based on the cloud products from the new generation geostationary meteorological satellite Himawari-8 (such as cloud optical thickness, cloud effective radius, etc.). Secondly, based on the Libradtran radiative transfer model, a parameterized model of cloud transmittance is constructed, which is combined with the Iqbal C clear sky model, and considering the terrain obstruction, a comprehensive model for estimating surface solar radiation considering the effects of atmosphere, clouds, and terrain is formed. On this basis, using Himawari-8 cloud and aerosol products, MODIS atmospheric products, etc., the diurnal (every 10 minutes) surface solar radiation is simulated, and the model accuracy is verified based on ground station measurements. To further evaluate the model's applicability, the diurnal spatial distribution of surface solar radiation over the Loess Plateau and its surrounding areas in 2020 was simulated and compared with Himawari-8 downward shortwave radiation data under different atmospheric conditions. The study also analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics and quantified the impacts of clouds and terrain on the spatial distribution of surface solar radiation. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) There are significant spatiotemporal distribution differences in cloud frequency (CF), cloud optical thickness (COT), and cloud effective radius (CER) over the Loess Plateau and its surrounding areas. Specifically, regions with high CF and COT values are mainly concentrated in the southern part, while CER exhibits an opposite spatial distribution pattern. Among the four seasons, the highest mean CF values occur in summer, while the mean COT peaks in autumn. The highest mean CER values mainly occur in spring and winter. In terms of the diurnal variation, the CF values are high at midday and low in the morning and afternoon, while the diurnal variation of COT shows the opposite trend. The CER values show an increasing trend from morning to afternoon and reach a maximum at 17:00 Beijing time. (2) Based on the Libradtran radiation transfer model, cloud transmittance lookup tables were computed based on different cloud phases (liquid cloud, ice cloud), with parameters including cloud optical thickness, cloud effective radius, and solar zenith angle. A custom function was employed to explore the relationship between cloud transmittance and key parameters, thus determining a parameterized model for cloud transmittance. Model parameters were obtained through least squares fitting, resulting in parameterized models with a fitting degree exceeding 0.99 and root mean square error less than 0.1. (3) Combining the clear sky model, the cloud transmittance parameterization model constructed in this study, Himawari-8 cloud and aerosol products, MODIS atmospheric products, as well as DEM products, surface solar radiation under clear sky, cloudy sky, and all-sky conditions was estimated every 10 minutes. The accuracy of the models was validated using ground measurements. The correlation coefficients (R) for validation results between clear-sky and all-sky conditions were all greater than 0.9, while for cloudy-sky conditions, R values were all greater than 0.6. The root mean square errors (RMSE) for clear-sky, cloudy-sky, and all-sky conditions averaged over the seven stations were 91.36 W/m2, 146.87 W/m2, and 103.68 W/m2, respectively. The mean bias errors (MBE) averaged over the seven stations were 54.45 W/m2, -65.77 W/m2, and 30.00 W/m2, respectively. These results indicate a good correlation between the estimated surface solar radiation and ground measurements at each station for clear-sky, cloudy-sky, and all-sky conditions, demonstrating overall good accuracy with some instances of overestimation and underestimation. (4) The spatial distribution simulated by the model constructed in this paper shows good consistency with the Himawari-8 surface downward shortwave radiation data,, and it is capable of presenting detailed spatial distribution characteristics. Direct radiation, diffuse radiation, and global radiation exhibit significant spatial and seasonal variations over the study area. Direct and global radiation exhibit a spatial distribution pattern of high values in the west and low values in the east, and high values in the north and low values in the south. Additionally, their values are highest in spring and lowest in autumn and winter. In contrast, the spatial distribution of diffuse radiation is the highest in summer and the lowest in winter. Diurnal variations of direct radiation, diffuse radiation, and global radiation all exhibit a trend of increase followed by decrease, reaching their maximum values around noon. Furthermore, it is observed that the interaction between cloud and elevation has the greatest impact on the spatial distribution of surface solar radiation. Therefore, considering the influence of elevation and cloud is essential for estimating surface solar radiation in complex terrain areas. |
参考文献: |
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中图分类号: | P237/ P422 |
开放日期: | 2025-06-18 |