煤炭开采引起的地表沉陷问题越来越受到重视，特别是黄土覆盖矿区，其地貌复杂，地表为厚黄土层所覆盖，其开采沉陷规律具有特殊性，传统的概率积分预计模型不能很好地适用于黄土矿区。针对不同地质条件，开发一个有效实用的开采损害预计分析系统具有重要的意义。 结合对常规条件下的开采沉陷研究和对黄土矿区双层介质理论预计模型的研究，对不同地质条件下的开采沉陷预计方法进行了探讨。同时，利用开采沉陷理论及土力学原理，推导出了地表开采裂缝产生所需要的临界拉伸水平变形值，以及开采裂缝深度的预计公式。基于以上理论研究，在VS2010平台中利用C#语言，开发了一套开采损害预计分析系统软件，实现了开采沉陷预计和开采损害分析工作的自动化和可视化。本系统能够预计生成各项移动变形量的二维曲线、等值线图、移动下沉盆地的三维模拟图，且能够进行地表开采损害分析以及采动裂缝的范围预计。除此之外本系统还设计有针对黄土矿区的预计分析功能。结合预计系统的特色，进行了实例研究分析，首先利用实测数据求得移动变形预计参数，然后在所开发的开采损害预计分析系统中，对地表的各项移动变形值及分布进行了研究，对工作面开采的充分性进行了实验探讨，模拟了移动下沉盆地三维效果。并利用系统的裂缝预计分析功能，自动生成了裂缝的预计分布范围。实验研究不仅验证了裂缝预计理论的正确性和所开发预计系统的实用性，也为黄土矿区的开采沉陷问题提供了一个实际工程的典型实例，为其他相关研究者和工程实施者提供参考。

The ground subsidence problems caused by coal mining have got more and more attention, especially for the mining areas covered by loess, where the topography is complex as well as the surface is covered with thick loess. Traditional prediction model based on probability integral can’t be perfectly applied to the loess areas for the subsidence regularity’s particularity. As a result, it has vital significance to develop an effective system for predicting the exploiting damage for these areas with special geological condition. This paper discussed the prediction methods of mining subsidence under different geological conditions after studying the conventional mining subsidence approaches as well as the loess mining areas’ prediction model based on the two-layer medium theory. Furthermore, combination mining subsidence theory with soil mechanics, this paper deduced the horizontal tensile deformation threshold generated by surface cracks and the prediction formulas of the depth of mining fissures. Then, based on the above theoretical research, this paper developed a system for mining damage prediction and analysis under the VS 2010 development platform with C# language, making the mining subsidence prediction and subsidence damage analysis automatic and visual. This system could predict and generate two dimensional curve of each movement deformation, contour map, and three dimension simulation map of mobile subsidence basin, analyze the surface mining damage and predict the scope of exploitation fracture. Besides, this system could be applied to the analysis and prediction of loess covered areas. This paper conducted experimental study combined with the system feature. First, the author deprived the moving deformation parameters from the measured data, then studied each moving deformation value of the surface as well as its distribution in the developed system of mining subsidence prediction and damage analysis, discussed the mining extent of coalface through experiments and simulated three-dimensional effects of mobile sink basin. Furthermore, this paper automatically generated the crack distribution range with the system of crack analysis function. The experimental research not only verified the correctness of the fracture theory and the practicality of the developed system, but also provided an example of actual project for the mining subsidence in loess areas and offered a reference to other related researchers and project implementers.