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论文中文题名:

 创业板盈余质量与股票收益的相关性分析    

姓名:

 任书娟    

学号:

 200913679    

保密级别:

 公开    

学科代码:

 0871    

学科名称:

 管理科学与工程    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位年度:

 2012    

院系:

 管理学院    

专业:

 管理科学与工程    

第一导师姓名:

 王岚    

论文外文题名:

 Correlation Analysis of Earnings Quality and Stock Returns on GEM    

论文中文关键词:

 盈余质量 ; 股票收益 ; 评价指标 ; 相关性    

论文外文关键词:

 Earnings Quality ; Stock Returns ; Evaluation Indexes ; Correlation    

论文中文摘要:
盈余是企业经营成果的反应,是证券监管部门管理上市公司和投资者做出决策时的重要参考指标,近几年证券市场上出现的一些造假行为使人们普遍开始关注盈余的质量问题,创业板市场运行已有将近三年的时间,经历了股价的大起大落,其盈余质量和股票收益的关系如何呢? 本文首先从决策有用观的角度研究了盈余质量的涵义、特征、影响因素和评价方法,从盈余质量的特征出发设计出了八个财务指标,并用变异系数综合评价法综合评价企业盈余质量。接着论述了股票收益的涵义和表示方法,并从理论上论述了盈余质量和股票收益的关系。 本文实证部分选取了在创业板上市的150家企业为样本,用“盈余-收益”模型分析了创业板企业盈余质量与股票收益的相关性,显示出创业板上市公司盈余质量与股票收益正相关,但盈余质量对股票收益的解释力度不大,盈余质量的真实性与股票收益率不相关,现金保障性与股票收益率不显著正相关,持续性与股票收益率负相关,盈利性和成长性与股票收益率显著正相关,安全性与股票收益率显著负相关。显示出创业板的投资者仅仅重视企业的盈利性和成长性水平,不关注主营业务带来的利润和销售收入带来的利润,不关注现金流量对利润的保障性和企业的风险水平,表明投资者不能有效区分盈余质量和盈余数量,从而不能识别企业的盈余操纵行为,投资存在盲目性。文章最后根据研究结果和创业板市场的现状提出了一些对策和建议,包括完善创业板新股发行制度和信息披露制度,培育专业的投资咨询机构和证券分析师等。
论文外文摘要:
Surplus is the outcome of the reaction of business and important index to the listed companies and the securities regulatory authorities when making decisions, some of the frauds in the stock market in recent years have emerged so that people generally begin to pay attention to the earnings quality, GEM market operation has been nearly three years and experienced the ups and downs of stock prices, What’s the relationship of the earning’s quality and stock return? From the perspective of decision’s usefulness, the article study the concept, characteristics, influencing factors and evaluation methods of the earning’s quality. This article design eight financial indicators and use comprehensive evaluation of the coefficient of variation to evaluate earning’s quality. Then discusses the meaning and representation of stock returns and theoretically discoursed the relationship of the earning’s quality and stock returns. The empirical part of the article select 150 companies listed on the GEM as sample, using the surplus-income model, show that the earnings quality and stock returns of companies listed on GEM is positively related,but little explanatory power of earning’s quality on stock returns, the earnings quality authenticity and stock gains rate is not related, cash safeguards and stock gains rate is not significantly related,earnings persistence and stock returns is negatively related, earnings growth and profitability have a significantly positive correlation with stock returns,earnings security has a significant negative correlation with stock returns. The results show that GEM investors only pay attention to corporate profitability and the level of growth, not care about profits of sales revenue and main business, are not concerned about the risk level of businesses and profits’ cash flow. The study show that investors of GEM can not effectively distinguish between earnings quality and earnings number, which does not recognize the corporate surplus manipulation,so Investment there is blindness. Finally, according to the findings and the status of GEM the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, including the perfect New Issue of the GEM system and information disclosure system, foster professional investment advisory agencies and securities analysts.
中图分类号:

 F830.91    

开放日期:

 2012-06-26    

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