农村电商作为乡村振兴和城乡融合发展的重要驱动力，已成为推动农村经济增长、优化农村产业结构和提高农民收入的关键途径。当前，我国农村电商正处于由高速增长向高质量发展的关键转型期。伴随着数字技术、物流体系和农村消费市场的不断升级，农村电商的规模持续扩大，交易模式日趋多元，发展环境日益优化，但不同地区农村电商的发展水平仍存在较大差异，影响了农村电商整体的可持续发展。为进一步加快农村电商稳定快速发展的良好势头，亟需探明我国农村电商发展能力及时空演化特征并揭示其影响机理，这对有的放矢地制定农村电商高质量发展政策具有重要现实意义。

本文基于准备度、使用度和影响度三个维度，从“三农”视角构建了农村电商发展能力的多维测度指标体系，并采用面板向量自回归模型、GMM估计和脉冲响应识别方法分析指标敏感因素，利用探索性时空分析法揭示农村电商发展能力的时空演化特征，并探究其影响机理。研究结论如下：（1）农村电商发展能力的多维特征显著。准备度、使用度与影响度相互联动，共同推动电商发展，但部分指标如淘宝村数量和电子商务采购额等作用呈边际减弱。（2）2011-2023年我国农村电商发展能力获得显著提升，但省域极化明显，东部和中部省份领先，西部和边缘省份滞后；整体呈现出东强西弱的递减动态格局，部分中西部省份在政策引导下有所突破，但整体差距仍存在。（3）东部区域农村电商发展活跃，空间结构稳定，省域关联性强，形成了显著联动效应；西部区域表现出较强内部空间依赖性，跨区域互动和联动效应初显；东北地区的低发展省域短期内难以向更高水平跃迁。农村电商发展呈现省域协同与空间依赖并行特征。多数省域农村电商发展呈现正向协同，东部省份间合作频繁，西部和东北地区内部联系较紧密，区域合作有助于农村电商整体提升。（4）农村电商发展能力的形成受多重因素影响。内生循环机制与外部赋能机制的协同作用共同推动了农村电商的演进，推动了其规模化扩展和消费品类的多样化。（5）亟需通过强化政策引导与基础设施完善，深化电子商务与农业产业融合；通过系统性提升农民数字素养与构建专业化人才梯队，培育区域特色化电商模式，进而实现跨区域产业协同发展。

Rural e-commerce, as a critical driver of rural revitalization and urban-rural integration, has emerged as a key mechanism for stimulating rural economic growth, restructuring rural industries, and enhancing farmers’ incomes. At present, rural e-commerce in China is undergoing a pivotal transformation from rapid expansion to high-quality development. With continuous advancements in digital technologies, logistics infrastructure, and rural consumer markets, the sector has witnessed increasing scale, diversification of transaction models, and improvements in its overall development environment. Nevertheless, substantial regional disparities remain in development levels, posing challenges to the sector’s sustainable growth. To maintain the current momentum of stable and accelerated progress, it is essential to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of rural e-commerce development capacity and to investigate its underlying driving mechanisms. These insights are of considerable practical significance for crafting targeted policies that promote the high-quality development of rural e-commerce.

This study constructs a multidimensional evaluation index system for assessing rural e-commerce development capacity, based on the three dimensions of readiness, usage, and impact, from the perspective of the “three rural” issues—agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. The system applies a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model, GMM estimation, and impulse response analysis to identify sensitive indicators. Additionally, exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis is employed to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of rural e-commerce development capacity and explore its underlying mechanisms. The main findings are as follows:(1) The multidimensional characteristics of rural e-commerce development capacity are significant. Readiness, usage, and impact are interrelated and jointly drive e-commerce development. However, the marginal effects of certain indicators, such as the number of Taobao villages and e-commerce procurement volume, are diminishing.(2) From 2011 to 2023, China’s rural e-commerce development capacity significantly improved, but regional polarization persists. Eastern and central provinces are leading, while western and peripheral provinces lag behind. The overall pattern shows a decreasing trend from east to west. Some breakthroughs have occurred in central and western provinces, supported by policy, but regional disparities remain.(3) In the eastern regions, rural e-commerce is highly active, with a stable spatial structure and strong inter-provincial connectivity, resulting in a notable synergistic effect. Western regions exhibit a strong internal spatial dependence, with initial signs of cross-regional interaction and synergy. In contrast, provinces in the northeast with low development levels struggle to make significant progress in the short term. Overall, the development of rural e-commerce demonstrates patterns of both provincial collaboration and spatial dependence. Most provinces exhibit positive synergy, with frequent cooperation among eastern provinces and closer internal ties within western and northeastern regions. Regional cooperation contributes significantly to the overall advancement of rural e-commerce.(4) The formation of rural e-commerce development capacity is influenced by multiple factors. The synergy between endogenous circulation mechanisms and external empowerment mechanisms jointly drives its evolution, facilitating large-scale expansion and diversification of consumer goods.(5) It is crucial to strengthen policy guidance and improve infrastructure, deepen the integration of e-commerce with agricultural industries, systematically enhance farmers’ digital literacy, and build a specialized talent pipeline. These efforts will help cultivate regionally distinctive e-commerce models and promote cross-regional industrial coordination and development.

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