在建筑火灾事故中，商业综合体火灾占20%以上，本文基于火灾模拟对A商业综合体进行火灾风险评价，借助实践与理论相结合这一方式，搭建了商业综合体火灾风险评估模型。在此基础上提出相应的火灾风险管理建议。本研究旨在为商业综合体火灾风险的识别与防控提供管理建议，为商业综合体火灾风险管理提供现实和理论参考。

本文基于对国内外研究、概念理论的介绍，选择A商业综合体作为研究对象，首先在查阅国内外文献、资料以及实地调查的基础上，明确了商业综合体火灾风险特点和风险因素。同时对火灾风险评价方法进行了明确。其次，阐述了A商业综合体的基本情况、消防安全状况、消防安全的重点部位的基本情况；在此基础上，对A商业综合体火灾风险类型和特点进行识别，并对其重点部位进行了火灾烟气模拟和人员疏散模拟，根据模拟结果提炼出A商业综合体的火灾风险因素。再次，借助专家座谈、实地调研等手段，运用层次分析法、模糊综合评价两种方法，根据上文分析所得的火灾风险因素开展了商业综合体火灾风险评估体系的构建，并对A商业综合体的火灾风险进行评估，得出结论：A商业综合体应优先关注应急救援方面，以降低整体火灾风险。最后，从优化应急预案编制、提高应急演习的有效性、提高应急救援响应速度以及加强应急救援消防设施管理四个方面提出风险管理建议。

In building fire accidents, commercial complex fires account for more than 20%. This article evaluates the fire risk of A commercial complex based on fire simulation, and uses a combination of practice and theory to build a fire risk assessment model for commercial complexes. Based on this, corresponding fire risk management suggestions are proposed. The aim of this study is to provide management recommendations for the identification and prevention of fire risks in commercial complexes, and to provide practical and theoretical references for the management of fire risks in commercial complexes. Based on the introduction of domestic and foreign research, conceptual theory, this thesis selects commercial complex A as the research object, and firstly clarifies the fire risk characteristics and risk factors of commercial complex on the basis of consulting domestic and foreign literature, data and field investigation. At the same time, the fire risk assessment method is clarified. Secondly, the basic situation, fire safety status and key parts of fire safety of commercial complex A are expounded, and on this basis, the types and characteristics of fire risk of commercial complex A are identified, and the fire smoke simulation and personnel evacuation simulation are carried out on the key parts, and the fire risk factors of commercial complex A are refined according to the simulation results. Thirdly, with the help of expert discussions, field investigations and other means, using the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the fire risk assessment system of commercial complex was constructed according to the fire risk factors obtained from the above analysis, and the fire risk of commercial complex A was evaluated, and it was concluded that commercial complex A should give priority to emergency rescue to reduce the overall fire risk. Finally, risk management suggestions were put forward from four aspects: optimizing the preparation of emergency plans, improving the effectiveness of emergency drills, improving the speed of emergency rescue response, and strengthening the management of emergency rescue and firefighting facilities.

[1]Gravit M,Vaititckii A, Shpakova A.Subway constructions fire safety regulatory requirements[J].Procedia engineering,2016,165:1667-1672.

[2]Matellini D B, Wall A D,Jenkinson I D, et al.A Three-Part Bayesian Network for Modeling Dwelling Fires and Their Impact upon People and Property.[J].Risk analysis,2018,38(10):2087-2104.

[3]Woods D D.Four concepts for resilience and the implications for the future of resilience engineering[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2015,41(2):5-9.

[4]Gottuk D, Lattimer B editors.Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Fire Safety Science[J].International Association on Fire Safety Science,2015,85-100.

[5]Khan A A, Khan M A, Leung K, et al.A review of critical fire event library for buildings and safety framework for smart firefighting[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2022,83:103412.

[6]Rahikainen J.and Keski-Rahkonen O.Statistical determination of ignition frequency of structural fires in different premises in Finland[J].Fire Technology 2014,40(4):335-353.

[7]Yun J H, Jeon J S.Fire scenario-based damage assessment of ductile reinforced concrete buildings using computational fluid dynamics models[J].Journal of Building Engineering, 2023,78:107655.

[8]Neto J T, Ferreira T M.Assessing and mitigating vulnerability and fire risk in historic centres:A cost-benefit analysis[J].Journal of Cultural Heritage,2020,45:279-290.

[9]Alessandri A, Bagnerini P, Gaggero M, et al.Parameter estimation of fire propagation models using level set methods[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2021,92:731-747.

[10]刘音,王瑞雪,刘洋,冯肖,崔向峥.基于模糊综合评价法的实验室火灾风险评价[J].实验室研究与探索,2018,37(8):321-325.

[11]张立宁,苟鹏飞,安晶,等.地下商业综合体火灾风险评估[J].消防科学与技术, 2022(003): 041.

[12]李阳.大型商业综合体的火灾危险性及消防安全管理措施[J].消防界:电子版, 2022, 8(9):3.

[13]Lautenberger C.Map**areas at elevated risk of large-scale structure loss using Monte Carlo simulation and wildland fire modeling[J].Fire Safety Journal,2017,91:768-775.

[14]Salazar L G F, Romão X, Paupério E.Review of vulnerability indicators for fire risk assessment in cultural heritage[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021,60:102286.

[15]Setola R, Sforza A, Vittorini V,et al.Railway Infrastructure Security[M].Springer International Publishing,2015.

[16]Alawad H, Kaewunruen S, An M.A deep learning approach towards railway safety risk assessment[J].IEEE Access,2020,8:102811-102832.

[17]Jabbari M, Gholamnia R, Esmaeili R,et al.Risk assessment of fire,explosion and release of toxic gas of Siri–Assalouyeh sour gas pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process[J].Heliyon,2021,7(8):1-8.

[18]赵永昌,闫怀林,朱国庆.基于防火性能多因素耦合文物建筑火灾风险评估方法及应用——以平遥古城为例[J].劳动保护,2023(5):87-90.

[19]姜峰,赵宇晴,梁瑞,等.基于模糊理论的建筑火灾环境危险性数值评价模型[J].现代电子技术,2022(010):045.

[20]肖国清,黄仁和,陈春燕.基于N-K模型改进的FRAME建筑火灾风险评估[J].安全与环境学报,2022,22(3):1139-1146.

[21]疏学明,颜峻,胡俊,吴津津,邓博誉.基于Bayes网络的建筑火灾风险评估模型[J].清华大学学报（自然科学版）,2020,60(4):321-327.

[22]闫子卉,万杰.基于组合赋权法的文物建筑火灾风险评估[J].消防科学与技术,2019,38(5):718-721.

[23]陶亦然.基于古斯塔夫法的大型购物中心火灾风险评估[J].消防科学与技术, 2010, 29(3):5.

[24]胡俊, 疏学明, 解学才,等.基于定量风险评估的建筑火灾保险费率[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2023,63(5):775-782.

[25]肖国清,黄仁和,邹瑞,等.大型城市综合体火灾风险评估研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,017(008):137-142.

[26]王诚.大型商业综合体火灾风险性研究[J].科技视界, 2022(14):83-85.

[27]董铭鑫,赵东风,贾进章.基于模糊综合评价-集值统计法的大型商场外因火灾风险性分析[J].安全与环境学报,2019,19(1):6.

[28]杨世全,黄晓家,谢水波,等.基于贝叶斯网络的商场火灾概率估算研究[J].消防科学与技术, 2020(010):039.

[29]Zou Q, Zhang T, Liu W.A fire risk assessment method based on the combination of quantified safety checklist and structure entropy weight for shop**malls[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers,Part O:Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2021,235(4):610-626.

[30]Orabi M A, Khan A A, Jiang L,et al.Integrated nonlinear structural simulation of composite buildings in fire[J].Engineering Structures,2022,252:113593.

[31]Jihyun Kang, In-Jae Jeong, oon-Bum Kwun.Optimal facility-final exit assignment algorit-hm for building complex evacuation[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2015,85.

[32]Liu Z G, Li X Y,Jomaas G.Effects of governmental data governance on urban fire risk:A city-wide analysis in China[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022, 78:103138.

[33]Mikalsen, Ragni Fjellgaard, et al."Fires in waste facilities:Challenges and solutions from a Scandinavian perspective."Fire Safety Journal,2021(120):103023.

[34]董文堂.现代化商业综合体消防设施标准化管理的现状及对策研究[J].水上安全, 2023(7):28-30.

[35]郑冠霞,杨漪,赵舒野,等.大型商业综合体火灾烟气及疏散模拟[J].西安科技大学学报, 2022(004):042.

[36]冷乐安.大型城市综合体的火灾危险性和火灾防控对策研究[J].中国科技纵横, 2023(12):123-125.

[37]文邦友,傅勤勇,郑锦.凯里某商业综合体消防设计探讨[J].消防科学与技术, 2013, 32(4):4.

[38]徐帅,陈刚,杨文涛,等.我国大型商业综合体安全管理水平定量评估方法与应用研究[J].安全与环境学报, 2023, 23(7):2409-2416.

[39]张轩语,万杰.基于DEMATEL/ISM的地下商业街火灾风险影响因素研究[J].工业安全与环保,2022,48(01):46-49.

[40]周东.大型商场装修材料的火灾防控[J].消防界:电子版, 2021, 7(18):2.

[41]董大旻,李凯豪,张广利.基于贝叶斯网络的公众聚集场所火灾风险分析[J].消防科学与技术,2018,37(4):545-548.

[42]吴俊奇，张蜻，曾雪华.新时期我国古建筑消防安全现状及对策研究[J].给水排水,2017(4):85-90.

[43]Qing Dong, FEI You, HU Shiqiang.Investigation of fire protection status for Nanjing representative historical buildings and future management measures[J].Procedia Engineering, 2014(71):3 77-3 84.

[44]Woods D D.Four concepts for resilience and the implications for the future of resilience engineering[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2015,41(2):5-9.

[45]Morgan H.P, Hansel GO.Fire sizes and sprinkler effectiveness in offices-Implications forsmoke control design[J].Fire Safety,2015,8(3):187-198.

[46]Siu Ming Lo.A Fire Safety Assessment System for Existing Buildings[J].Fire Technology, 2014,35(2):131-152.

[47]韩梅,吴珊,常青,等.基于事故树和模糊贝叶斯网络的铁路超限货物运输风险评估[J].铁道学报,2021,43(5):9.

[48]赵欢欢,苏乃特,卫文彬.中小学地下体育场馆火灾风险及对策[J].消防科学与技术,2019,38(3):375-378.

[49]王燕,尹盼盼,沈梦露.基于事故树的铁路客运站火灾风险因素分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2019(S1):4.

[50]张丽杰,刘建昌,谭树彬.复杂建筑火灾中的人员疏散路径多目标规划[J].东北大学学报：自然科学版,2020,41(6):6.

[51]张葭伊,吕淑然,张宇栋.基于WSR-熵权物元可拓模型的古建筑火灾风险等级评价[J].安全与环境工程,2020,27(2):6.

[52]张嬿妮,杨丹,黄罗鑫,等.集成DEMATEL-ISM的古建筑火灾致因因素评价[J].火灾科学,2023,32(1):59-66.

[53]徐坚强,刘小勇,苏燕飞,等.基于贝叶斯网络的建筑火灾动态风险评估方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(2):7.

[54]谢尊贤,李艳艳,吴晓茹,王芳,王薇.基于物元多级可拓模型的档案馆火灾安全风险评价[J].安全与环境学报,2019,19(1):21-28.

[55]安晶,张立宁,庞晓娜,崔彩云.基于未确知聚类的高层建筑防火风险评估系统[J].消防科学与技术,2022,41(7):942-945,950.

[56]李杰,陈伟炯.建筑火灾研究现状的可视化分析[J].消防科学与技术, 2018,037(002):250-254.

[57]张健,宋志刚,李全旺,郝爱玲.木结构建筑群火灾蔓延危险建筑的识别及防火改造效果评价[J].工程力学,2020,37(4):60-69.