险兆事件认知、管控水平事关煤矿灾害事故预防水平。近年来，我国煤矿煤与瓦斯突出灾害事故虽有所缓解，但是由于煤矿安全基础薄弱，尤其是安全管理的“软”基础与硬件基础并未同步发展，使得煤与瓦斯突出防治形势依然严峻。因此，基于三类危险源理论分析煤与瓦斯突出致突险兆因子的作用机理，开展煤与瓦斯突出险兆事件链模型研究，可为进一步提高煤与瓦斯突出灾害事故预防与控制提供新的思路和方法。本论文主要研究内容和成果如下： （1）提出了煤与瓦斯突出致突险兆因子事件链和灾害事件链的概念模型。分析了煤与瓦斯突出灾害的特征，基于三类危险源理论，从煤与瓦斯突出灾害事故案例中总结分析煤与瓦斯突出灾害的致突险兆因子间的因果关系，利用解释结构模型对煤与瓦斯突出危险源系统层次结构进行分析，提出煤与瓦斯突出致突险兆因子事件链和灾害事件链的概念模型。 （2）建立了煤与瓦斯突出的致突险兆因子指标体系。以煤体、瓦斯赋存两方面建立煤与瓦斯突出第一类致突险兆因子指标体系；以抽采系统、通风系统、监控系统、防突技术等方面建立煤与瓦斯突出第二类致突险兆因子指标体系；以瓦斯治理投入、瓦斯治理制度、瓦斯治理机构、瓦斯治理队伍等方面建立煤与瓦斯突出第三类致突险兆因子指标体系，并深入分析三类致突险兆因子对突出灾害事件链的影响作用，通过专家调查法，权重分析系统WAS分析各致突险兆因子的权重，为煤与瓦斯突出致突险兆因子事件链模型的计算提供数据支撑。 （3）分析了煤与瓦斯突出事件链关键概率。在分析煤与瓦斯突出灾害事件链效应关系的基础上，引入状态转移理论，利用多维离散型随机变量建立煤与瓦斯突出致突险兆因子事件链风险模型，进而运用Matlab软件对事件链模型进行编程计算，得出基于三类致突险兆因子的煤与瓦斯突出事件链关键概率分析图，并采用模糊综合评价方法对第二类和第三类致突险兆因子的初始状态进行定量化处理，为事件链模型的现场应用提供了数据支持。 （4）将建立的基于状态转移的煤与瓦斯突出事件链风险模型应用于山西某突出煤矿现场实践。数据分析发现在事件链作用下的系统风险值低于第一类致突险兆因子的初始风险值，表明当前矿井第二类及第三类致突险兆因子不足以加剧突出危险性，但仍须进一步采用目标规划模型对风险调控手段进行寻优。在256种可行方案中，选取出最有效的第三类致突险兆因子调控手段为瓦斯治理队伍和瓦斯治理投入；最有效的第二类致突险兆因子调控手段为防突技术和抽采系统，在致突因子深层挖掘的基础上，提出了该煤矿的煤与瓦斯突出事件断链减灾方案。 以上研究成果进一步丰富和扩展了基于三类危险源划分的事故致因理论，完善了煤与瓦斯突出灾害事故致突险兆因子指标体系，进一步推动了煤与瓦斯突出事件链模型的研究，对指导煤矿灾害事故的预防和控制具有显著的现实意义。

Recognition, management and control of outburst risks are crucial to the improvement of mine safety management. In recent years, although the coal and gas outburst disasters have been mitigated to some extent, the prevention and control is in serious situation, due to the weak safety foundation, especially the asynchronous development of the "soft" and hardware foundation of safety management. Therefore, the Three Types of Hazard Theory-based analysis of the functional mechanism of sudden risk omen factors, and the study on event chain model of sudden risk omen of coal and gas outburst can provide new ideas and methods for further enhancing prevention and control of the coal and gas outburst disasters. In view of this, the main research work and achievements of the thesis are as follows: (1) The characteristics of coal and gas outburst disasters were analyzed. Then, based on the Theory of Three Types of Hazard, the causal relationship was achieved between all kinds of sudden risk factors in typical coal and gas outburst cases. The hierarchical structure of coal and gas outburst hazard was studied by using interpretative structural model. Lastly, event chain model of sudden risk omen of coal and gas outburst, and the conceptual model of disaster event chain was put forward. (2) Index system of three types of mutagenic risk factors was established, including: (ⅰ) the first mutagenic factor index system of coal and gas outburst from the two aspects of coal and gas occurrence, (ⅱ) the second mutagenic risk factor index system of coal and gas outburst based on the aspects of the drainage and mining system, the ventilation system, the monitoring system, the outburst prevention technology, and (ⅲ) the third mutagenic risk factor index system of coal and gas outburst form the aspects of the cost input of gas control, gas control mechanism, administrative organization of gas control and gas control team. In order to get the data support for the event chain model calculation of the mutagenic risk factors of coal and gas outburst, the effect of three types of mutagenic risk factors on the event chain of outburst disaster, and the weight of mutagenic risk factors was analyzed by expert investigation method and the WAS system. (3) On the basis of analysis of the event chain effect relationship of disaster, the event chain risk model on the mutagenic risk factors of the coal and gas outburst was established combining the state transfer theory and multi-dimensions random variables. Then, the event chain model programmed by MATLAB software calculated and worked out the analysis graphics of key probability based on the event chain of the three types of the mutagenic risk factors of the coal and gas outburst. Finally, the quantification processing of the initial state of the second and third types of mutagenic risk factors was carried out by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which provided data support for the field application of the event chain model. (4) Based on state transfer theory, the event chain risk model of coal and gas outburst was applied to the field practice of one coal mine in Shanxi Province. Data analysis showed that the systemic value-at-risk was lower than the initial value-at-risk of the first type of mutagenic risk factors under the action of the event chain. And it also indicated that the basic situation of the second and the third type of mutagenic risk factors in the current mine seemed fine, but further control measures should be optimized by using objective programming model. Among 256 kinds of feasible schemes, the most effective control means of mutagenic risk factor of the third type hazard are gas control investment and gas control team construction, and the most effective control means of mutagenic risk factor of the second type hazard are the prevention technology and drainage-mining system. Finally, the reducing disaster scheme of the event chain of coal and gas outburst for the coal mine was put forward by further exploring the mutagenic index. The above research achievement further enriched and extended the accident causing theory based on the three types of classification hazard, perfected the index system of the mutagenic risk factors of disaster accidents of coal and gas outburst, and further promoted the study of the event chain model of coal and gas outburst, which is of practical significance to the prevention and control of coal mine disasters.