煤炭是一种重要的能源，也是我国经济发展和社会进步的重要命脉。在今后较长时间内，煤炭在中国的主体能源地位不会动摇。在煤炭企业发展生产过程中，基本建设是扩大再生产的主要手段。投资项目成本估算是项目投资决策的关键所在，传统的投资成本估算模型存在项目数据需求完备、计算耗时长等不足，案例推理方法非常适用于知识不完全、项目属性难以定义而经验丰富的决策环境。 本文基于案例推理和现代统计学等理论和方法，首先建立起煤炭建设项目属性指标体系，采用专家调查法确定了属性指标权重，界定了煤炭建设项目属性强度函数、标的项目、案例项目、案例相似度等概念；第二，分析了基于案例推理的煤炭建设项目投资成本估算的基本理论；第三，构建了煤炭建设项目成本估算模型；最后，结合一实例对上述模型进行了运用，结果表明基于案例推理的估算模型更为高效，这些研究成果将为煤炭建设项目投资决策提供方法上的支持。

Coal is a kind of important energy, it is also the important lifeblood of the economic development and social progress in our country. In a long time in the future, the main body of coal in China's energy status is not to be shaken. In the process of coal production enterprise development, basic construction is a major means of expanded reproduction. Investment project cost estimation is the key to project investment decision-making, the traditional investment project data demand complete cost estimation model, calculation time consuming is insufficient, such as case-based reasoning method is very suitable for incomplete knowledge, the project properties is difficult to define and experienced decision environment. Firstly,based on case-based reasoning and modern statistics theory and method established the index system of coal construction project properties, using expert investigation method determined the attribute index weight, define the function construction project properties of coal strength, mark of coal construction project of the case similarity, case of coal construction project, such as concept; Second, establishing the basic model of coal construction project investment cost estimates is based on case-based reasoning; Third, build the strength attribute function under the unknown of the coal construction project cost estimation model, constructs the attribute function of the coal construction project cost estimation model in the case of known; Finally, combined with an example to use the above model, the results show that the estimation model based on case-based reasoning is more efficient. These research results will provide method for coal construction project investment decision-making support.