水是制约干旱区社会经济发展和自然环境质量的关键因子。应用“虚拟水战略”概念，针对我国西北地区黑河流域城市化速度加快、水—生态—社会经济复合系统间矛盾加剧的态势，从复合系统协调发展的角度，构建黑河流域虚拟水战略适宜性评价体系，运用熵值法对一级指标层与二级指标因子赋权，采用模糊综合评价法对黑河流域虚拟水战略适宜性进行评价与分析，提出针对性的水资源管理建议。主要研究结论包括： （1）构建黑河流域虚拟水战略适宜性评价体系。通过对虚拟水战略适宜性影响因素的定性与定量分析，构建虚拟水战略适宜性评价体系，其中包括5个一级指标层和19个二级指标影响因子，讨论各指标因素与虚拟水战略实施适宜性的影响关系。 （2）选择熵值法作为指标赋权方法，对虚拟水战略适宜性一二级指标分别进行权重赋值。结果显示，虚拟水战略实施适宜性的一级指标权重大小依次为：资源禀赋条件＞社会调适能力＞经济发展水平＞技术水平&交通贸易条件＞生态环境水平；各一级指标层下权重值最高的二级指标影响因子分别为：可利用人均水资源量、恩格尔系数、粮食自给率、工业技术效率、生态用水比例。结果表明，对水资源管理决策者而言，在注重水土资源基础条件的同时，也要考虑或考核效率和适应能力层面的影响因素。 （3）构建虚拟水战略适宜性模糊综合评价模型，进行黑河流域虚拟水战略适宜性等级评价和空间分布分析。结果显示，研究区的祁连县等5个区县适宜性等级为Ⅰ等，肃南县适宜性等级为Ⅱ等，高台县等4个区县表现为Ⅲ等适宜性，金塔县适宜性等级为Ⅴ等。黑河流域虚拟水战略实施适宜性水平整体表现良好。适宜性等级空间分布分析结果显示，祁连县等黑河流域虚拟水战略实施最适宜的区域分布在流域上游与中游地区。

Water is the key factor to restrict the development of social economy and the quality of natural environment in arid area. Applying the concept of “virtual water strategy”, and aiming at the rapid urbanization speed of the Heihe River Basin in the northwest of China and the intensified contradictions between the water-eco-social and economic composite systems, this paper constructs a virtual water strategy suitability evaluation system in the Heihe River Basin from the perspective of coordinated development of the composite system. And the entropy method was used to weigh the first index layer and the second index factor, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate and analyze the suitability of virtual water strategy in the Heihe River Basin, and the pertinent suggestions for water resources management were put forward. The main conclusions of this study were as follows: (1) The virtual water strategy suitability evaluation system in Heihe River Basin was constructed. Through the qualitative and correlation analysis of the factors affecting the suitability of virtual water strategy, the evaluation index system of virtual water strategy suitability was constructed, which includes 5 first-level index layers and 19 second-level index factors. And the relationship between each index factor and the suitability of the implementation of virtual water strategy was analyzed. (2) The entropy method is chosen as the index weighting method and the first and second indexes of virtual water strategy suitability were weighted separately. The results show that the weights of the first-level indicators of suitability for the implementation of virtual water strategy are in the following order: resource endowment condition > social adjustment ability > level of economic development > level of technology & terms of traffic and trade > level of ecological environment; The influencing factors of the highest weights under each index layer are in the following: available per capita water resources, Engel coefficient, food self-sufficiency rate, industrial technology efficiency, ecological water use ratio. The results indicate that, for the decision makers of water resources management, the factors affecting efficiency and adaptability should be considered as well as the basic conditions of water and soil resources. (3) A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of strategic suitability for virtual water was constructed to evaluate the strategic suitability of virtual water in the Heihe River Basin and analyze its spatial distribution. The results showed that the suitability grades of Qilian and other five districts and counties in the study area were all grade Ⅰ, the suitability of Sunan County is in the grade Ⅱ, the suitability grade of Gaotai County and other 4 districts and counties is in the grade Ⅲ, and the suitability grade of Jinta County is in the grade Ⅴ. The virtual water strategy in the Heihe River Basin is generally more appropriate. The spatial distribution analysis of suitability grades shows that the most suitable area for the implementation of virtual water strategy in the Heihe River Basin, such as Qilian County, is located in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.