由于石化行业的高危险性，尤其是石化储罐区，一旦其中一个储罐发生火灾或爆炸事故，将很容易引起多米诺效应，进而导致更加严重的事故后果。所以研究石化储罐区多米诺效应的定量风险评估方法，为罐区多米诺效应的风险防控提供科学指导是十分重要的。针对石化储罐区多米诺效应的定量风险评估方法的研究，本文主要开展的研究内容如下：

针对多米诺效应概率计算方法的研究，本文首先根据现有的多米诺效应扩展阈值的研究，确定了基于扩展阈值进行多米诺效应场景序列识别的基本步骤。根据场景序列的识别结果，结合静态贝叶斯与动态贝叶斯网络，以扩展概率模型的计算结果作为贝叶斯网络条件概率的基础，在考虑协同效应及多级多米诺效应的情况下，分别建立了的蒸气云爆炸和火灾场景导致的多米诺效应概率计算方法。

针对石化储罐区多米诺效应风险评估方法的研究，解决了SAFETI软件无法直接进行多米诺效应的定量风险计算问题。通过使用其风险效应模型及调整事件树相关参数，结合贝叶斯网络分析得到的较为精确的事故扩展概率数据，成功构建了社会风险计算可结合评估企业或园区周围人员分布、风险结果计算和展示可结合GIS图的石化罐区多米诺效应风险评估方法。

最后，选取陕西省某化工园区的两处石化储罐区，分别对蒸气云爆炸场景和池火场景导致的多米诺效应进行了本文所建立的定量风险评估方法的应用，并根据风险计算结果提出了相应的风险管控措施，为罐区的多米诺效应风险预防与控制提供了指导。

Due to the high risk of petrochemical industry, especially in petrochemical tank farm, once a fire or explosion accident occurs in one of the tanks, it will easily cause domino effect, and then lead to more serious consequences. Therefore, it is very important to study the quantitative risk assessment method of domino effect in petrochemical tank farm and provide scientific guidance for the risk prevention and control of domino effect in tank farm. In view of the research on quantitative risk assessment method of domino effect in petrochemical storage tank area, the main research contents of this paper are as follows:

Aiming at the research on the probability calculation method of domino effect, this paper first determines the basic steps of scene sequence recognition based on the existing research on the extended threshold of domino effect. According to the recognition results of scene sequence, combined with static Bayesian network and dynamic Bayesian network, taking the calculation results of extended probability model as the basis of Bayesian network conditional probability, and considering the synergistic effect and multi-level domino effect, the probability calculation methods of domino effect caused by vapor cloud explosion and fire scene are established respectively.

Aiming at the research on the risk assessment method of domino effect in petrochemical storage tank area, the problem that SAFETI software can not directly calculate the quantitative risk of domino effect is solved. By using its risk effect model and adjusting the relevant parameters of event tree, combined with the more accurate accident expansion probability data obtained from Bayesian network analysis, a risk assessment method of domino effect in petrochemical tank farm is successfully constructed, which can calculate the social risk according to the distribution of personnel around the enterprise or the park, and the risk results can be combined with GIS map.

Finally, two petrochemical tank farms in a chemical industry park in Shaanxi Province are selected to apply the quantitative risk assessment method established in this paper to the domino effect caused by vapor cloud explosion scenario and pool fire scenario, and the corresponding risk control measures are proposed according to the risk calculation results, which provides guidance for the prevention and control of domino effect risk in the tank farm

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