2009年，我国出口贸易成为全球第一。出口贸易作为我国经济发展的三驾马车之一，拉动了我国经济的快速增长，然而一定程度上破坏了我们赖以生存的生活环境，如不可再生资源的大量消耗，自然资源无节制的开采，使山川、河流、大气受到严重污染等等。近年来，我国向欧洲、美洲、亚洲等出售大量的商品，但生产过程中的污染却没有随商品“比翼双飞”，而是留在了我国。近年来，环境保护与经济发展之间的矛盾日益激化，尤其是大气污染已成为我国环境污染中最可怕的、最迫切需要解决的问题。全国范围频频出现的雾霾天气不仅对我国居民的身体、心理造成极大的伤害，还抑制植物的光合作用，影响到国家的小麦、大米、蔬菜的产量。由于上述原因，本论文将出口贸易与我国能源消费碳排放的关系研究作为研究主题，出口贸易总额、商品结构、方式和地区对我国的碳排放会产生怎样的影响？我国政府以及出口产业和企业又该采取什么样的对策？这些都是本论文研究的重点。 本文采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法，运用碳排放这个概念，定量估算了1978-2013年间我国能源消费的碳排放情况，数据显示：我国1978-2013年碳排放呈现持续上升趋势，尤其是2002年之后的几年碳排放增长飞速。接着借助相关性分析、单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验分析研究碳排放总量与我国出口贸易总额、出口贸易商品结构、出口贸易方式、出口贸易地区之间的长期变化影响。研究结论是：我国的出口贸易与能源消费碳排放之间存在着长期均衡和短期波动的关系，碳排放与出口贸易规模互为格兰杰因果原因；中国的碳排放和中国的初级产品、工业制成品的之间呈单向格兰杰原因，中国的碳排放增加是工业制成品的主要推动力之一，即中国的出口货物主要是建立在消耗大量可再生或者不可再生能源基础上；能源消费碳排放是引起出口贸易方式的单向格兰杰原因；东部地区、中部地区和西部地区的出口贸易总量与我国能源消费碳排放是正相关关系。结果表明中国出口贸易是低附加值粗放型、高碳排放的“非环境友好型”发展模式。

Since 2009, China has became the world’s largest exporter. As one of the three carriages in China’s economic development, export trade stimulates the rapid growth of China’s economy. However, it has destroyed our living environment, such as large consumption of non-renewable resources, the exploitation of natural resources without restraint, mountains, rivers, air and so on. In recent years, our country sold a large number of goods to Europe, America, Asia and so on, but the pollution in the process of production left behind our country. For the past few years, the contradiction between environmental protection and economic development is becoming more and more intensified, especially air pollution has become the most terrible and urgent problem need to solve in China. The frequent emergence of haze weather not only exerts our residents’ mental and psychological health, but also inhibits the plant photosynthesis, and affects the production of wheat, rice and vegetable. For these reasons, this paper mainly study the relationship of China’s export trade and carbon emissions from energy consumption. How the total amount of export trade, commodity structure, methods and regions will impact our country’s carbon emissions? What strategy should our government and export industries and enterprises adopted? These are the focus in the research. The paper uses empirical analysis method, under the concept of carbon emissions, and estimates quantitatively China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions from 1978 to 2013. According to data: China’s carbon emissions in 1978-2013 showed a trend of rising, especially after 2002 years of carbon emissions growth rapidly. The paper uses Econometric Time Series Model and Panel Data Model to analyze the relationship between the total amount of China’s export trade, commodity structure, trade pattern, trade area and carbon emissions. Then through the correlation analysis, unit root test, the integration analysis and Granger causality test analysis, the paper studies the relationship between carbon emissions and China’s export trade’s total sum, commodity structure, pattern and area. Results show that: The relationship between China’s export trade and energy consumption carbon emissions is a long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation, Carbon emissions and the scale of the export trade are Grainger causal reasons to each other; China’s primary products and manufactured goods affect China’s carbon emissions directly. China’s carbon emissions increase is one of the main driver of manufactured goods. In other words, China’s exports are mainly based on a vast amount of renewable or non-renewable energy consumption; Energy consumption carbon emissions is a one-way Granger cause of export trade way; The relationship between export trade gross from the eastern region, middle region and western region and energy consumption is a positive correlation. Results also show that China’s export trade is “environmentally friendly” development pattern with low added value and high carbon emissions.