煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故是矿井重大灾害之一，突发性强、波及面广、破坏力大、伤亡人数多。针对目前瓦斯爆炸事故预警方法的单一性及事故演化过程中多因素耦合风险快速判定及定量表述中存在的薄弱环节，本文采用案例分析、现场调研、理论研究、模拟仿真、系统开发等综合方法，提出了瓦斯爆炸多因素耦合风险分级度量方法，构建了瓦斯爆炸耦合风险态势推演系统，实现了基于监测、检查等多源信息融合的瓦斯爆炸耦合风险在线快速判定及预测，对于瓦斯爆炸事故的预防和管控具有重要意义。
通过统计我国2010—2020年发生的125起较大及以上煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故案例，从事故发生的时间、地点、场所、致因等方面进行分析。针对瓦斯爆炸事故等级特征、时空规律、分形时序特性，瓦斯积聚及引爆火源产生的原因，得到瓦斯爆炸事故特征及统计规律，并基于事故致因理论，从微观、中观和宏观层次对瓦斯爆炸事故致因进行深入分析。
根据国内外学者对于前兆信息的研究，结合知识库的功能介绍，本文对前兆信息及前兆信息知识库的概念进行界定。基于瓦斯爆炸事故致因分析，运用扎根理论对瓦斯爆炸事故的前兆信息进行编码提取，并结合相关法律法规、标准规范中关于瓦斯、通风和火源管理的规定，通过分析、整理、归纳，从前兆信息、相关规定、依据三方面构建瓦斯爆炸事故前兆信息知识库。
通过分析瓦斯爆炸风险耦合的方式及类型，基于前兆信息知识库，运用数据挖掘技术与复杂网络原理，从固—人—机—环—管五个维度探索导致瓦斯爆炸事故发生的关联规则。根据规则支持度和置信度，明确前兆信息组合与瓦斯爆炸事故发生的强关联规则，并借助提升度确定强关联规则中各前兆信息的耦合相关性，构建基于强关联规则的煤矿瓦斯爆炸复杂网络演化路径。
基于风险可接受准则，运用风险矩阵法将演化过程中的单因素风险进行风险值计算，确定单因素风险等级；然后，将单因素中的定性指标定量化，定量指标无量纲化处理，并采用序关系分析法和熵权法对各指标进行综合赋权；最后，通过计算各风险指标的耦合度，根据单因素风险值、权重系数和风险耦合度，提出多因素耦合风险分级度量方法。
以定性与定量相结合为原则，基于瓦斯爆炸演化路径及耦合风险分级度量方法，根据系统动力学的建模原理，构建基于系统动力学的瓦斯爆炸耦合风险推演模型；并运用Vensim软件对瓦斯爆炸耦合风险演化模型进行仿真模拟，得到系统瓦斯爆炸风险演化趋势及指标变量的风险变化趋势，通过调整系统运行的相关参数，检验模型的适用性及可行性。
通过前期的理论分析与模拟仿真，基于瓦斯爆炸的前兆信息、演化路径与耦合度量，运用JDK1.9+平台开发瓦斯爆炸耦合风险态势推演系统。将前期理论分析的结果按照不同层级的信息进行转化，通过多源数据的捕捉与获取，按照不同功能进行信息自动化处理，最终实现瓦斯爆炸耦合风险在线评估与态势推演，并根据推演预警及时采取应对措施预防瓦斯爆炸事故的发生。
论文针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸耦合风险度量及管控中存在的薄弱环节，在国家自然科学基金（51974238）项目资助下，运用扎根理论、前兆信息理论、风险耦合理论、数据挖掘技术、复杂网络和系统动力学方法等多学科交叉理论进行了瓦斯爆炸耦合风险态势推演系统的构建与检验研究。研究成果对于煤矿瓦斯爆炸耦合风险超前管控和预判发挥重要作用，为实现瓦斯爆炸风险的在线快速判定提供理论与技术支撑，具有较高的学术研究价值和推广应用前景。

Coal mine gas explosion accident is one of the major disasters in mines, with strong suddenness, wide spread, large destructive force and large number of casualties. Aiming at the singleness of the current gas explosion accident early warning method, the weak links in the rapid determination and quantitative expression of multi-factor coupling risks in the accident evolution process, this paper adopted comprehensive methods such as case analysis, on-site investigation, theoretical research, simulation and system development, a gas explosion multi-factor coupling risk grading measurement method was proposed. The gas explosion coupling risk situation deduction system was constructed. It realizes the online rapid assessment and prediction of gas explosion coupling risk based on monitoring, inspection and other multi-source information fusion, which is of great significance for the prevention and control of gas explosion accidents.
Through the statistics of 125 large and above coal mine gas explosion accidents that occurred in China from 2010 to 2020, the analysis was carried out from the aspects of the time, region, place and cause of the accident. According to the grade characteristics, time-space law, fractal time sequence characteristics of gas explosion accidents, and the causes of gas accumulation and detonation ignition source, the characteristics and statistical laws of gas explosion accident were obtained. In addition, the causes of gas explosion accidents were analyzed in depth from the micro, meso and macro levels based on the accident-causing theory.
According to the research of domestic and foreign scholars on precursor information, combined with the function introduction of knowledge base, this paper defined the concept of precursor information and precursor information knowledge base. Based on the cause analysis of gas explosion accidents, the grounded theory was used to code and extract the precursor information of gas explosion accidents. And combine relevant laws, regulations and standards on gas, ventilation and fire source management regulations. By analyzing, sorting and summarizing, a gas explosion accident precursor information knowledge base was constructed from three aspects: precursor information, relevant regulations and basis.
By analyzing the ways and types of gas explosion risk coupling, based on the precursor information knowledge base, using data mining technology and complex network principles, the association rules leading to gas explosion accidents were explored from five dimensions. According to the rule support and confidence, the strong association rules between the combination of precursor information and the gas explosion accident were clarified, and the coupling correlation of each precursor information in the strong association rules was determined by lift, and an evolutionary path of coal mine gas explosion based on strong association rules was constructed.
Based on the risk acceptability criterion, combined with the precursor information system and the evolution path of the gas explosion accident, the risk matrix method was used to calculate the risk value of the single factor risk in the evolution process, and the single factor risk level was determined. Then, the qualitative indicators in the single factor are quantified, the quantitative indicators were nondimensionalized, and G1 method and the entropy weight method were used to weight each indicator. Finally, by calculating the coupling degree of each risk indicator, according to the single factor risk value, weight coefficient and risk coupling degree, a multi-factor coupling risk grading measurement method was proposed.
Based on the principle of combining qualitative and quantitative, according to the gas explosion evolution path, the coupling risk grading measurement method and the modeling principle of system dynamics, a SD-based gas explosion coupling risk deduction model was constructed. The Vensim software was used to analyze the gas explosion coupling risk. The evolution model was simulated to obtain the evolution trend of the system gas explosion risk and the risk change trend of the index variables. By adjusting the relevant parameters of the system operation, the applicability and feasibility of the model were tested.
Through the previous theoretical analysis and simulation, based on the precursor information, evolution path and coupling measurement of gas explosion accident, the JDK1.9+ platform was used to develop the gas explosion coupling risk situation deduction system. The results of the previous theoretical analysis are transformed according to different levels of information, and through the capture and acquisition of multi-source data, the information is processed automatically based on different functions. Finally, the online assessment and situation deduction of gas explosion coupling risk are realized, and timely countermeasures are taken to prevent the occurrence of gas explosion accidents according to the deduction and early warning.
Aiming at the weak links in the measurement and control of coal mine gas explosion coupling risk, this paper was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51974238), the grounded theory, precursor information theory, risk coupling theory, data mining technology, complex network and system dynamics methods and other interdisciplinary theories were used to construct and test the gas explosion coupling risk situation deduction system. The research results play an important role in the advanced control and prediction of coal mine gas explosion coupling risk, provide theoretical and technical support for the realization of online rapid determination of gas explosion risk. High academic research value and promotion and application prospects.

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