煤炭生产在推动我国经济快速发展的同时也带来了严重的煤矿事故威胁，煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸事故就是其中之一，然而事故发生必有险兆。本文从煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件入手，运用复杂适应系统理论和多主体建模与仿真技术，对煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化过程进行了研究。以期能进一步管控煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件，预防和减少煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故发生。本文的主要研究内容和结论如下：

（1）分析了煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因及演化特征。通过分析险兆事件概念特点及事件发生概率分级标准，确定了煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件内涵特征。运用网络爬虫技术和扎根理论，分析得到4个煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因一级因素，即：人的因素、机（物）的因素、组织管理因素和环境因素。其中，人的因素包含安全技能等8个二级因素；机（物）的因素包含电路故障等7个二级因素；组织管理因素包含安全制度等8个二级因素；环境因素包含断层等7个二级因素。由此依据复杂适应系统理论对煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件进行演化特征分析。结果表明，煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化系统符合复杂适应系统的基本特性和机制，确定它是一种典型的复杂适应系统。

（2）构建了煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化多主体模型。依据多主体系统理论，结合主体划分原则及煤矿掘进工作面生产实际情况，对煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化主体进行划分，得到4种主体：矿工Agent、管理者Agent、组织Agent和环境Agent。依据煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件影响因素，分析得到矿工Agent属性包括安全认知等6个方面；管理者Agent属性包括安全态度等6个方面；组织Agent属性包括组织凝聚力等4个方面；环境Agent属性包括设备可靠度等4个方面。由此通过分析各主体行为交互关系，设置主体行为交互规则函数，以构建煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化多主体模型。

（3）进行了煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化仿真及结果分析。对比各仿真平台利弊，确定选用NetLogo进行建模仿真。通过查阅文献、问卷调查及煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化层次分析，得到仿真相关性系数。运用Logo语言进行仿真初始设计，而后针对不同生产情景下煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化仿真结果进行对比分析可得：煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化受到矿工、管理者、组织和环境的共同作用；通过调节目标主体属性值，可以显著提升对应主体安全可靠性，进而有效降低煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化风险，其中，矿工的工作熟练度和受教育程度对煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件演化风险的影响最大；从长远发展来看，全面提高矿工安全素质水平、管理者安全管理能力、环境安全水平和组织安全氛围，有助于从根本上减少煤矿掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件发生。

Coal production not only promotes the rapid development of our economy, but also brings serious threat of coal mine accidents, gas explosion accident in coal mine heading face is one of them. However, there is near-miss when an accident happens. This paper starts with high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face, and uses complex adaptive system theory and multi-agent system modeling and simulation methods to study the evolution process of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face. It is expected to further control high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face, prevent and reduce the occurrence of coal mine gas explosion accident. The main research contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:

(1) The causes and evolution characteristics of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face are analyzed. Through analyzing the connotation and characteristics of the near-miss and the classification standard of the occurrence probability of the event, the connotation and characteristics of the high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face are determined. Using the web crawler technology and the rooting theory, four primary factors causing the high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face are determined, namely, human factors, machine (material) factors, organization and management factors and environmental factors. Among them, human factors include 8 secondary factors such as safety skills, machine (material) factors include 7 secondary factors such as circuit faults, organizational management factors include 8 secondary factors such as safety regulations, environmental factors include 7 secondary factors such as faults. Then, based on the theory of complex adaptive system, the evolutionary characteristics of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face are analyzed, it conforms to the characteristics and mechanism of the complex adaptive system. It’s a typical complex adaptive system.

(2) The multi-agent model for the evolution of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face is established. Based on the theory of multi-agent system, combined with the principle of agent division and the actual production situation of coal mine heading face, the agents of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face are divided into four subjects: miner agent, manager agent, organization agent and environment agent. Through the cause analysis of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face, the attribute of miner agent includes six aspects such as safety cognition, the manager agent attribute includes six aspects such as security attitude, the attribute of organization agent includes four aspects such as organization cohesion, the environment agent attribute includes four aspects such as device reliability. Through analyzing the interaction relationship between the behavior of each agent and setting the interaction rule function of the agent's attributes, a multi-agent model for the evolution of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face is constructed.

(3) The evolution simulation and result analysis of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face are conducted. Comparing the advantages and disadvantages of each simulation platform, NetLogo is selected for modeling and simulation. The simulation correlation coefficient is determined through literature review, questionnaire survey and hierarchical analysis of the evolution of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face. Using Logo language to design the initial simulation system. Then compare and analyze the evolution simulation results of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face under different scenarios, and we can know that the evolution of gas explosion high probability near-miss in heading face of coal mine is affected by miners, managers, organizations and environment. Through adjusting the attribute parameter value of the target agent, the safety level of the target agent can be significantly improved, and then the evolution risk level of the high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face can be effectively reduced. Among them, the work proficiency and education level of miners have the greatest influence on the evolution risk of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face.From the perspective of long-term development, comprehensively improving the safety quality level of miners, the safety management ability of managers, the environmental safety level, and the organizational safety atmosphere will help to fundamentally reduce the occurrence of high probability near-miss of gas explosion in coal mine heading face.

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