水电投资项目的社会和经济效益显著，但一般投资巨大、工期较长、技术复杂、施工环节和制约因素较多，涉及规划、设计、施工、监理等方方面面，影响其建设及经济效益的不确定性因素很多，这些因素往往受政治、技术、经济、社会、自然等诸多客观条件的影响，具有很大的不可预见性和随机性，使水电投资项目存在着较大的风险。因此对水电投资项目风险评价及指标体系进行研究具有十分重要的意义。 论文从投资项目风险评价的角度出发，运用了系统分析方法、归纳方法、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，以及系统工程、项目管理、风险管理、投资项目评价等方面的理论。首先，通过对水电投资项目的不确定性分析、系统分析、多角度分析和风险因素识别，运用项目生命周期理论，确定了水电投资项目风险因素清单，建立了水电投资项目风险评价指标体系。然后，论文将该指标体系运用于汉江蜀河水电投资项目，通过调查和专家打分法并结合SPSS数理统计软件，进行汉江蜀河水电投资项目风险评价指标的选取，对筛选出的指标运用层次分析法建立了多层次模糊综合评价模型；通过对该模型的研究，得到了各指标的权重值，提出了四级风险级别归类，并对各风险指标进行了归类；论文还求得了汉江蜀河水电投资项目的风险综合评价值。最后，在通过汉江蜀河水电投资项目实际案例检验过程中，证明了所建立的指标体系和评价模型的可行性和在实际工作中的可操作性。 本研究是对水电投资项目风险评价指标体系建立的有益探讨，对于水电投资项目风险评价向定量化、科学化、规范化方向发展具有积极的正面作用，为水电投资开发公司更好的进行风险评价提供了参考，具有一定的理论价值与实践意义。

The social and economic benefits of Hydropower Investment Project are great, however, politic, technology, economic, social and environment confined it development. There are a lot of unpredicted and random factors made Hydropower Investment Project risky. So it is meaningful to research on hydropower investment project risk evaluation and index system. From perspective of investment project risk evaluation, first, this thesis used method of system analysis, epagoge, quantitative and qualitative analysis, and used theories of system engineering, project management, risk management, project evaluation. First, by using of uncertain analysis method, system analysis method, multi-angle analysis method and risk factors identification to Hydropower investment project, it defined a list of risk factors and designed a risk evaluation index system of Hydropower investment project. Second, it applied this index system to ShuHe Hydropower investment project of Han River and used the Delphi method and SPSS to select indexes and formed a hierarch risk evaluation model to ShuHe Hydropower investment project of Han River. Finally, it applied fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to ShuHe Hydropower investment project of Han River. It also obtained the weight of index system and classified risk level of the project. Moreover, the value of risk comprehensive evaluation of ShuHe project is achieved and levels of risk are classified. Third, this research proved the index system and the model is correct and applicable. This thesis is an exploration of Hydropower investment project’s risk evaluation index system design and positive function of progress to quantitative, scientific and standard of Hydropower investment project’s risk evaluation. It provides some references for hydropower investment companies to evaluate project’s risk.