物流业是一个新兴的产业，随之产生的物流园是高投资、周期长、社会影响大、高风险的项目。在物流园建设和运营过程中，存在着很多方面的风险，这些风险都会对物流园的效益造成负面影响。物流园项目属于商业地产项目，鉴于商业地产项目投资风险的管理对于社会、开发商具有重要的现实意义，本文旨在综合运用已有的风险管理研究方法来研究商业地产项目的投资风险，为S物流园项目投资提供一种较为实用的风险管理体系，通过对该项目投资过程中可能出现的风险及其影响因素进行分析、评估和防范，以便投资者能够确定投资项目的风险程度，采取合理的管理措施，控制项目的投资风险，提高商业地产项目的成功率，增加企业的经济和社会效益。 本文以项目风险管理的理论成果为依据，根据物流园项目风险管理的特征，然后结合S物流园项目的实际情况，经过大量走访、实地调查获得比较可靠、详实的资料，从风险识别、评价、应对三方面对S物流园项目风险管理进行了探讨研究。本文首先介绍了了项目风险管理的基本理论，包括风险管理的产生和发展、国内外风险管理研究的现状；然后提出所要研究的项目风险管理问题，从项目全周期角度出发，从各个方面对项目风险管理进行了论述，包括项目风险管理的基本理论、风险识别和评价方法、项目风险管理体系的构建及具体实施方案；然后介绍了物流园的产生和发展以及物流园项目风险管理的特点，在详细介绍S物流园项目的具体情况之后，采用德尔菲法和层次分析法对S物流园项目进行定性和定量相结合的实证分析，即在德尔菲法定性分析的基础上，应用层次分析法建立模型，结合这两种方法的优势来进行定量的风险衡量与评估，最后得出该项目风险管理过程中值得重点关注的风险，并提出相应的风险应对建议和策略。 本文所提供之风险管理体系以及相应的针对S物流园项目所制定的风险管理措施，将会帮助S物流园项目更好的应对实施过程中所遇到的各类风险，为个人、企业及地方经济带来实质贡献，也将对商业地产项目风险管理提供理论支持与实践建议。

Logistics industry as a new booming sector has given enormous momentum for the promotion of infrastructure and related industries in the society. Logistics Park, a hub for the development of the whole logistics industry, has accordingly become a hot area for investment. However, the nature of logistics park project, e.g. vast investment, long construction period, great social influence and high risks, may generate various risks in construction and operation and thus lead to some negative effect on the investors and constructors. This thesis aims to propose risk management strategies for logistics project via a case study of the S Logistics Park Project. With a brief introduction to the birth and generation of risk management and the status quo of risk management research at home and abroad, the research proposes the research subject of the thesis and makes a complete discussion over project risk management. After a brief introduction of the generation and development of logistics park and the features of risk management of logistics park project, this research, with a focus on the specific situation of the S Logistics Park, makes in-depth analysis and evaluation of the risks of the Project based on an empirical study on the Project via the approaches of Delphi and AHP, and proposes the corresponding suggestions and strategies on how to cope with the possible risks in the whole process of the Project. The risk management system put forward in this thesis and the corresponding risk measures in the implementation of the project will be of great significance to the success of S Logistics Park Project, bring about benefit to all stakeholders and regional economy and finally provide theoretical support and practical suggestions for commercial real estate projects in risk management.