摘要 近十年来，我国生态及环境保护问题越来越严重，温室效应、雾霾、碳排放等问题影响到人们的日常生活和生产，政府开始高度关注并下大力气治理气候问题，针对燃煤发电机组制定了严格的环保排放标准，迫使企业开展节能减排活动以求得生存。火力发电厂基础设施建设投资大、回收期长、不可再生能源消耗大，决定了其利润空间受到极大压缩。所以本论文重点研究Energy Performance Contracting模式（简称为EPC模式）下的火电厂基础建设项目风险管理，以期建立一种科学合理的风险评估与控制模型，为投资者和承包商带来一定的投资启示。 本文的出发点是通过EPC模式下火电厂的建设工程实践，从项目业主或投资者的角度研究建设项目的投资风险。本文的研究前提为建设工程项目时风险评估管理的部分知识，同时借鉴EPC承包模式本身以及火电厂建设各阶段的特点，得出工程总承包模式下项目存在的风险清单，对该风险产生影响的多种因素重要性、严重性进行综合评价，评估在工程建设过程中进行风险管理的必要性。同时结合对影响风险产生的不同因素，使用工具进行统计并建立模型，从而得出一般火电站建设项目过程中的风险控制清单，针对性提供合理的缓解、转移、规避等不同的应对策略。然后，结合大型火力发电站EPC模式下的工程实际，检验模型的有效性，为火力发电厂基础设施项目本身制定了总承包项目的风险处理策略，为业主或投资方提供投资参考依据。 通过风险管理、项目管理和模糊数学和其他工程项目风险管理分析，本文概括出工程项目全过程风险定量分析的方法，分析了工程项目风险管理的特征，评估了EPC模式下工程项目的风险因素，建立了EPC模式的工程风险模糊评估模型，探讨了EPC模式建设过程中项目风险监测存在的问题，提出了相应的建议和对策。根据风险量化的内容和类型，研究了EPC管理模式工程项目风险因素辨识与评估问题。

ABSTRACT Over the past decade, China's ecological and environmental protection problems have become more and more serious. Greenhouse effect, haze, carbon emissions and other issues affect people's daily life and production. The government has begun to pay close attention to and make great efforts to tackle climate problems. In view of coal-fired generating units, strict environmental protection emission standards have been formulated, forcing enterprises to carry out energy-saving and emission reduction activities in order to survive. The large investment in infrastructure construction, long payback period and large consumption of non-renewable energy in thermal power plants have greatly reduced their profit margins. Therefore, this paper focuses on the risk management of thermal power plant infrastructure projects under the Energy Performance Contracting model (EPC model) in order to establish a scientific and reasonable risk assessment and control model, which will bring some investment inspiration to investors and contractors. The starting point of this paper is to study the investment risk of construction projects from the perspective of project owners or investors through the construction practice of thermal power plants under EPC mode. The premise of this paper is the knowledge of risk assessment and management in construction project. At the same time, drawing lessons from EPC contracting mode itself and the characteristics of each stage of thermal power plant construction, the risk list of project under general contracting mode is obtained. The importance and seriousness of various factors influencing the risk are evaluated comprehensively, and the risk management in the process of project construction is evaluated. Necessity. At the same time, combined with the different factors affecting the risk, we use tools to make statistics and establish models, so as to get the risk control list in the process of general thermal power plant construction projects, and provide reasonable mitigation, transfer, evasion and other different coping strategies. Then, combined with the engineering practice under EPC mode of large thermal power plant, the validity of the model is tested, and the risk management strategy of the general contracting project is formulated for the thermal power plant infrastructure project itself, which provides the investment reference for the owners or investors. Through the analysis of risk management, project management and fuzzy mathematics and other project risk management, this paper summarizes the method of quantitative analysis of the whole process of project risk, analyses the characteristics of project risk management, evaluates the risk factors of project under EPC mode, establishes the fuzzy evaluation model of project risk under EPC mode, and probes into the project wind in the process of construction of EPC mode. The problems existing in risk monitoring are put forward and corresponding suggestions and countermeasures are put forward. According to the content and type of risk quantification, this paper studies the identification and evaluation of risk factors in EPC management project.