三道沟煤矿位于陕西省府谷县西北部属黄土高原地区，该煤矿采高较大、煤层埋藏深度较浅、煤层上覆基岩较薄，在西部黄土矿区具有典型的代表性。探究其采空区地表沉陷规律，并对其沉陷威胁危险性进行预测分析，对西部黄土地区煤矿开采沉陷规律的研究具有重要的意义。 本文以现有开采沉陷理论和采空区稳定性分析方法为指导，以三道沟煤矿85201工作面一期开采区实地观测资料及地质地形资料为依据进行论文的撰写。首先，根据开采过程中收集到的85201工作面观测站相关资料，包括监测点实测数据、矿区地质地形资料、煤层分布以及该煤矿其他基本特点，对以上资料进行整理分析并总结概括三道沟煤矿一期采空区地表移动变形规律。其次，采用解析法、回归分析法和计算机数值模拟法对采空区地表危险性评价指标进行相关计算与结果的分析。在解析法中，采用概率积分法进行预计参数的确定，并结合“三下”采煤规程选取相关系数值；在回归分析法中，介绍了数据缺失问题的解决办法，对地表移动持续时间预计模型进行了线性对数拟合；在数值模拟法中，对煤层深度、煤层厚度以及工作面推进量对地表下沉的影响进行了分析研究。最后，将三种方法得到的结果相结合，对三道沟煤矿一期采空区地表沉陷危险性进行综合预计与分析，并根据分析结论为矿区安全生产、矿区生态环境保护以及地面工程建设提出科学合理的建议。

Sandaogou Mine is located in the northwest of the genus Fugu County, Shaanxi Province in the Loess Plateau, the large coal mining height coal seam buried depth shallower bedrock on thin coal seam mining in the western Loess typical representation. Mined explore its surface subsidence law, and its subsidence threat risk forecast analysis has important implications for loess region in Western Mining Subsidence Law. In this paper, the existing mining subsidence theory and stability analysis of mined-out area as a guide to Sandaogou Mine 85201 Face of a mining area in situ data and geological and topographical data as a basis for writing papers. First, according to the mining process collected 85201 Face stations relevant information, including monitoring points measured data, geological and topographical data mining, coal seam distribution and other essential features of the mine, the above data to collate and summarize the analysis are summarized Sandaogou Mine a goaf ground displacement and deformation law. Secondly, the analytical method, regression analysis and computer simulation method of risk assessment index Surface goaf calculation and analysis of relevant results. In the analytical method, the use of probability integration method is expected to determine the parameters, combined with "three of" mining procedures selected correlation coefficient; in the regression analysis, we introduce the solution to the problem of missing data on the expected duration of surface movement logarithmic linear model fitting; numerical simulation method, the depth of the coal seam, coal seam thickness and the amount of face advance the impact of surface subsidence were analyzed. Finally, the results obtained by the three methods combined to Sandaogou a surface coal mine subsidence Gob comprehensive risk prediction and analysis, and conclusions based on an analysis of mine safety, mine ecological environment protection and construction of ground raised reasonable suggestions.