国际能源价格波动通过市场传导、成本溢出及能源替代等渠道影响全球能源贸易网络。中国作为全球最大的煤炭进口国，进口煤供应链的稳定状况，对国家能源安全及经济平稳运行有着至关重要的意义。近年来，国际能源价格频繁大幅波动，叠加地缘政治冲突等因素，使得进口煤供应链面临的不确定性显著增加，增强进口煤供应链韧性已成为亟待解决的关键问题。现有研究多聚焦于单一风险因素分析，缺乏对进口煤供应链多维韧性特征的系统研究，尚未形成国际能源价格波动与供应链韧性动态关联的系统探讨。

本文首先对进口煤供应链及其韧性的内涵进行界定，运用扎根理论对政策文本、行业数据进行三级编码，提炼出涵盖抵御能力、恢复能力、再组织能力与更新能力4个维度的18项韧性指标，构建进口煤供应链韧性评价体系；采用熵权-TOPSIS法测度2000—2023年中国进口煤供应链韧性水平；针对国际能源价格序列，采用HP滤波分解长期趋势与短期波动，识别出2008年金融危机、2020年新冠疫情等结构性断点；进一步运用TVP-VAR模型分析国际能源价格波动与进口煤供应链韧性的动态关系，揭示其传导路径与时变特征。研究发现：（1）国际能源价格波动通过成本传导、供需失衡及政策干预三条路径影响供应链韧性，短期冲击效应显著，中长期韧性通过多元化采购、技术创新与政策优化逐步恢复；（2）进口煤供应链韧性综合指数呈波动上升趋势，抵御能力与更新能力受价格波动影响最敏感，恢复能力与再组织能力受价格波动影响呈现正向响应特征；（3）2008年金融危机、2020年新冠疫情等事件中，供应链通过应急物流网络重构与数字化技术应用显著提升了抗风险能力；（4）提出构建多元供应链网、完善期货市场对冲机制、加大技术创新投入和深化国际能源合作等提高我国进口煤供应链韧性的政策建议。本文研究将有助于提高我国进口煤供应链韧性，也有助于构建安全、高效、可持续的能源供应体系。

Fluctuations in international energy prices affect the global energy trade network through market transmission, cost spillover, and energy substitution channels. As the world's largest coal importer, China's stability of the imported coal supply chain is of vital significance to national energy security and the smooth operation of the economy. In recent years, frequent and significant fluctuations in international energy prices, coupled with geopolitical conflicts and other factors, have significantly increased the uncertainty faced by the imported coal supply chain. Enhancing the resilience of the imported coal supply chain has become an urgent issue to be addressed. Existing research mostly focuses on the analysis of single risk factors and lacks systematic studies on the multi-dimensional resilience characteristics of the imported coal supply chain. There is no systematic discussion on the dynamic correlation between international energy price fluctuations and supply chain resilience.

This paper first defines the imported coal supply chain and its resilience, and uses grounded theory to conduct three-level coding on policy documents and industry data, extracting 18 resilience indicators covering four dimensions: resistance, recovery, reorganization, and renewal capabilities, to construct an evaluation system for the resilience of the imported coal supply chain. The entropy weight-TOPSIS method is used to measure the resilience level of China's imported coal supply chain from 2000 to 2023. For the international energy price series, the HP filter is used to decompose the long-term trend and short-term fluctuations, identifying structural breakpoints such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Further, the TVP-VAR model is employed to analyze the dynamic relationship between international energy price fluctuations and the resilience of the imported coal supply chain, revealing the transmission path and time-varying characteristics. The research findings are as follows: (1) International energy price fluctuations affect supply chain resilience through three paths: cost transmission, supply-demand imbalance, and policy intervention. The short-term impact is significant, while the resilience in the medium and long term gradually recovers through diversified procurement, technological innovation, and policy optimization. (2) The comprehensive index of the resilience of the imported coal supply chain shows a fluctuating upward trend. Resistance and renewal capabilities are the most sensitive to price fluctuations, while recovery and reorganization capabilities show a positive response to price fluctuations. (3) During events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the supply chain significantly enhanced its risk resistance through the reconstruction of emergency logistics networks and the application of digital technologies. (4) Policy recommendations are proposed to improve the resilience of China's imported coal supply chain, including building a diversified supply chain network, improving the hedging mechanism of the futures market, increasing investment in technological innovation, and deepening international energy cooperation. This research will help enhance the resilience of China's imported coal supply chain and contribute to the construction of a safe, efficient, and sustainable energy supply system.