煤炭业是我国国民经济的基础产业，同时也是高安全风险的行业，因此研究如何有效评价与提高煤矿安全生产能力具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。 首先，本文在分析我国煤矿安全现状的基础上探讨了开展煤矿安全生产能力评价工作的重要意义，综述了国内外安全评价理论和技术的发展现状。 然后，根据现代事故致因理论，结合人-机-环分析法与层次分析法等确定了影响煤矿安全生产能力的主要因素，共4类17项。根据安全评价模型的要求，构建了全面的煤矿安全生产能力评价指标体系，使煤矿生产过程中的各个重要影响因素在指标体系中都得以体现。在此基础之上，构建了基于模糊层次分析法的煤矿安全生产能力评价模型，并结合实际进行了实例应用，得到的结果很大程度上反映了现实。 最后，结合上述评价结果以及我国现行的煤矿安全监管体制，构建了一个由中央政府、地方政府、煤矿企业和煤矿工人为对象的四方博弈模型，细致分析了煤矿事故屡禁不止、频繁发生的深层原因，并在此基础上给出了解决煤矿安全事故频发问题的对策。

As the basic industry of our national economy, the coal industry was also a special industry with high safety risk, so it was vital in both theory and practice to study how to assess and improve safety of coal mine production capacity. Firstly, the Chinese coalmine safety status was analyzed to put forward the importance and necessity to use safety evaluation. The home and abroad safety evaluation were summarized and the ideals, methods and main contents of this subject were proposed. Then, based on the accidental incidence theory and other safety theories, the analytic hierarchy process were combined with other methods to analyze the primary factors affecting coal mine safety, classified into 4 types including human, mechanical, environmental and managerial factors. According to the requirements of the safety evaluation model, under the precondition and the principles of the constitution and quantity of the indicators, the mine safety evaluation indicators system was completely constructed, and the every important factor during the production processes was incarnated in the indicator system. The mine safety evaluation model was trained by the means of safety sample data to prove that the model was applicable for mine safety evaluation. The results calculated were similar to the actual situation. At last, this paper establishes a game model including the central government, local government, coal companies and coal miners to show the deep-seated causes of the repeated mine-accidents and put forward suggestions on this basis.