事故发生必有险兆，险兆事件是“阴影下的事故”“事故前体”。煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件因发生概率高、衍生后果严重而更加需要引起足够重视。充分认识煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件的致因因素与突变机理，注重煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故发生前高概率险兆事件的识别和干预，符合我国强调的事故防治“关口前移”的安全管理理念。因此，通过煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件定义与致因因素、致因突变机理、干预与模拟研究，以期能巩固事故纵深防御第三道防火墙，指导和提升高可靠性安全保障建设，为煤矿事故预防水平、安全管理水平提升提供新思路和方法。

（1）定义了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件，确定了其致因因素。运用文献分析法，定义了煤矿险兆事件；基于霍尔三维结构，从风险维、结果维、目标维进行了高概率险兆事件维度分析；通过发生概率分级方法分析，确定了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件概率，并运用多面Rasch模型进行了验证；在此基础上，定义了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件。通过网络爬虫技术与扎根理论，确定了致因因素，包括4个一级因素，30个二级因素。运用PLS-DEMATEL方法，计算各致因因素的中心度和原因度。中心度：组织管理因素（0.2521）＞人的因素（0.2346）＞机器设备因素（0.1152）＞环境因素（0.0318），表明组织管理因素和人的因素影响较大。原因度：组织管理因素（0.1550）和人的因素（0.0537）原因度＞0，为原因型因素；机器设备因素（-0.0290）和环境因素（-0.3796）原因度＜0，为结果型因素。

（2）构建了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变模型，揭示了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变机理。基于尖点突变模型，构建了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变模型。运用Fuzzy-cluster方法，计算煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变发生概率；运用AHP-D-S方法，计算煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变后果严重度；确定了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变模型的控制变量为组织管理因素和人的因素（主要控制变量）与机器设备因素和环境因素（次要控制变量）；通过煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变模型平衡曲面方程的判别式∆，判断突变情况；通过平衡曲面方程的实数根差值∆x，分析突变程度；通过平衡曲面方程的奇点集x_μ、x_ν，确定突变位置。根据控制变量趋于突变的不同情况，揭示了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变机理，确定了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变系统的安全性状态。

（3）构建了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件系统动力学模型，提出了组合干预对策。运用系统动力学方法，按照人、机、环、管子系统分别构建了SD组合干预模型，厘清了人、机、环、管各子系统因果关系和反馈回路，分析得到煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件反馈回路、代表性因果链和组合干预对策。个体人安全子系统反馈回路有13条，代表性因果链有5条，组合干预对策有4个；机器设备安全子系统反馈回路有11条，代表性因果链有4条，组合干预对策有4个；环境安全子系统反馈回路有8条，代表性因果链有2条，组合干预对策有2个；组织管理安全子系统反馈回路有14条，代表性因果链有4条，组合干预对策有4个。

（4）对煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件干预对策进行模拟，对比分析了干预效果。对A煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件进行致因突变分析，结果表明，人、机器设备、环境和组织管理各子系统均发生突变，从而验证了煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件致因突变模型的合理性，可以分析煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件的致因突变过程。构建了A煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件仿真模型，进行仿真模拟。模拟结果表明煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件各干预对策对煤矿瓦斯爆炸高概率险兆事件干预效果良好。通过各干预对策干预效果对比分析，按章操作、通风系统合理、火源（自燃发火等）控制、安全责任等干预效果较好。

There is near-miss when an accident happens. Near-miss is “shadow accident” and “precursor accident”. Due to the high probability of occurrence and serious consequences, the high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion needs to be emphasized. Understanding the cause factors and mutation mechanism of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion, paying attention to the identification and intervention of high-probability near-miss before the occurrence of coal mine gas explosion accidents, which is in line with the safety management concept of accident prevention moved forward. Through the research of definition and occurrence characteristics, cause factors, cause mutation mechanism, intervention and applied of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion, so as to consolidate the third firewall, to guide and improve the construction of high reliability safety guarantee, provide new ideas and methods for the improvement of coal mine accident prevention level and safety management level.

(1)The high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion is defined, and the cause factors are determined. Based on literature analysis, the definition of coal mine near-miss is obtained. Hall three-dimensional structural model is used to analyze the high-probability near-miss from risk dimension, result dimension and target dimension. By analyzing the probability classification methods at home and abroad, it is determined that events with a probability of occurrence greater than 0.1 are high-probability events. The result of probability definition is analyzed by multi-faceted Rasch model, and the results are all within the reasonable range. On this basis, the definition of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion is obtained. Through web crawler technology and the grounded theory, the cause factors are determined, including 4 first-level and 30 second-level factors. The PLS-Dematel method is used to calculate the centrality and causality. The calculation results of centrality show that: organization management factors (0.2521)＞human factors (0.2346)＞machine factors (0.1152)＞environment factors (0.0318). It shows that the organization management factors and human factors have great influence on high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion. The calculation results of causality show that: organization management factors (0.1550) and human factors (0.0537)>0, which are causal factors; machine factors (-0.0290) and environment factors (-0.3796)＜0, which are result factors.

(2)A cause mutation model of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion is constructed and the cause mutation mechanism is revealed. Based on the cusp mutation model, a cause mutation model of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion is constructed. Based on Fuzzy-cluster method, the mutation probability of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion are calculated. Based on AHP-D-S method, the consequence severity of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion are calculated. It is determined that the control variables of the model are organization management factors and human factors (main control variables), machine factors and environment factors (secondary control variables). According to the discriminant formula ∆ of equilibrium surface equation of high-probability near-miss of gas explosion, the mutation situation is judged. The mutation degree is analyzed by real root difference ∆x of equilibrium surface equation. The mutation location is determined by singular point set x_μ and x_ν of equilibrium surface equation.  According to the different situation of mutation variables tending to mutation, the cause mutation mechanism of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion is revealed.And the safety state of the cause mutation system of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion is determined.

(3)The SD intervention simulation model of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion is constructed and combined intervention measures are proposed. Using the SD method, a combined intervention model is constructed according to human factors, machine factors, environment factors and organization management factors.The causal relationship and feedback loop of each subsystem are analyzed. The feedback loops, representative causal chains and main combined intervention measures are obtained. Human safety subsystem includes 13 feedback loops, 5 representative causal chains and 4 main combined intervention measures. Machine safety subsystem includes 11 feedback loops, 4 representative causal chains and 4 main combined intervention measures. Environment safety subsystem includes 8 feedback loops, 8 representative causal chains and 8 main combined intervention measures. Organization management safety subsystem includes 14 feedback loops, 4 representative causal chains and 4 main combined intervention measures.

(4)A coal mine is selected for applied research. Cause mutation analysis is carried out of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion in A coal mine. The results show that mutations occur in human, machine, environment and organization management subsystems, which verifies the mutation model. The cause mutation process of high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion can be analyzed. The simulation model of high-probability near-miss of A coal mine gas explosion is constructed and simulated. The results show that the intervention systems for high-probability near-miss of coal mine gas explosion have good effect, which verifies the rationality of the simulation model. According to the comparative analysis of the intervention effects of various intervention measures, the operation by regulations, ventilation system reasonable, fire source (spontaneous combustion, etc) control and safety responsibility have the best intervention effects.