受突发事件的影响，能源供应链物流、信息流和资金流的正常运行发生紊乱，供应链供给、需求、运输和价格受到不同程度的影响，同时链上企业也会遭受多重风险，企业绩效受到冲击，这种现象被称为能源供应链扰动效应。新冠疫情作为一种典型的突发公共卫生事件，对我国经济造成了一定的打击。在疫情爆发期，我国经济增长缓慢，供应链受到不同程度的扰动效应，能源供应链作为经济运行的生命线更是首当其冲。因此，能源供应链扰动效应影响因素识别、扰动效应形成原理探究以及扰动效应测度都是需要解决的重大问题。本文围绕新冠疫情这一突发公共卫生事件，选取煤炭供应链和光伏供应链为研究对象对上述问题展开研究。

       首先，通过相关文献梳理和德尔菲法识别出突发公共卫生事件下能源供应链扰动效应影响因素；其次，构建DEMATEL-AISM模型，探究扰动效应形成原理；然后，在形成原理基础上提出假设，运用事件研究法构建实证模型，测度扰动效应的具体表现；最后，对能源供应链如何应对扰动效应提出政策建议。研究结论如下：（1）突发公共卫生事件下能源供应链会受到供给、需求、运输和价格负面扰动效应；（2）突发公共卫生事件下不同能源供应链受到的负面扰动效应是不同的，煤炭供应链在国内新冠疫情影响下受到显著的负面扰动效应，而光伏供应链在海外新冠疫情的影响下受到显著的负面扰动效应；（3）突发公共卫生事件下能源供应链不同环节受到的负面扰动效应具有显著差异，同时能源供应链受到的需求负面扰动效应要大于受到的供给负面扰动效应；（4）突发公共卫生事件下能源供应链负面扰动效应随着时间会逐渐减弱；（5）为积极应对突发公共卫生事件带来的扰动效应，本文提出以下政策建议：一是完善突发公共卫生事件预警机制；二是建立能源供应链应急保障机制；三是积极应对突发公共卫生事件；四是开设能源绿色运输通道；五是保障能源供应链供需平衡；六是提高能源供应链弹性。本研究能够弥补当前能源供应链扰动效应研究的不足，为以后学者开展相关研究提供借鉴；同时提出的政策建议能够帮助能源供应链有效应对扰动效应，保障能源供应链畅通。

   Affected by emergencies, the normal operation of logistics, information flow and capital flow in the energy supply chain are disordered, and the supply, demand, transportation and price of the supply chain are affected to varying degrees. At the same time, enterprises in the chain will also suffer multiple risks and the enterprise performance will be impacted. This phenomenon is called the disturbance effects of energy supply chain. As a typical public health emergency, COVID-19 has caused a certain blow to our country’s economy. During the outbreak of the epidemic, our country’s economic growth is slow, and the supply chain is also disturbed to varying degrees, as the lifeline of the economic operation, the energy supply chain is the first to bear the brunt. Therefore, the identification of influencing factors of the disturbance effects of energy supply chain, the exploration of the formation principle of the disturbance effects and the measurement of the disturbance effects are all major problems to be solved. This thesis focuses on COVID-19, a public health emergency, and selects the coal supply chain and photovoltaic supply chain as the research objects to study the above problems.

    Firstly, the influencing factors of the disturbance effects of energy supply chain under public health emergencies were identified by combing relevant literature and Delphi method; secondly, the DEMATEL-AISM model was constructed to explore the formation principle of the disturbance effects; then, the hypotheses were put forward based on the formation principle, and the event study method was used to construct an empirical model to measure the specific performance of the disturbance effects; finally, this thesis put forward policy suggestions on how energy supply chain can respond to the disturbance effects. The conclusions are as follows: (1)Under public health emergencies, the energy supply chain will be subject to negative disturbance effects of supply, demand, transportation and price; (2) The negative disturbance effects of different energy supply chain are different under the public health emergencies. The coal supply chain has been suffered a significant negative disturbance effect under the impact of domestic COVID-19, while the photovoltaic supply chain has been suffered a significant negative disturbance effect under the impact of overseas COVID-19;(3) Under public health emergencies, the negative disturbance effects on different links of the energy supply chain are significantly different. At the same time, the negative disturbance effect of demand on the energy supply chain is greater than the negative disturbance effect of supply;(4) The negative disturbance effects of energy supply chain under public health emergencies will weaken over time gradually;(5) In order to respond to the disturbance effects brought by public health emergencies actively, this thesis puts forward the following policy suggestions: First, improve the early warning mechanism for public health emergencies; second, establish the emergency guarantee mechanism of energy supply chain; third, respond to public health emergencies actively; fourth, open green energy transportation channels; fifth, ensure the supply and demand balance of the energy supply chain; sixth, improve the elasticity of the energy supply chain. This study can make up for the deficiency of the current research on the disturbance effects of energy supply chain, and provide reference for scholars to carry out relevant research in the future; at the same time, the proposed policy suggestions can help the energy supply chain deal with the disturbance effects caused by public health emergencies, ensure the smoothness of the energy supply chain.

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