由于重要能源资源供给安全受诸多不确定性因素影响，因此，系统辨识这些不确定因素、分析这些不确定因素之间的影响关系及其各自的变动规律是破解我国能源资源供给安全问题的基础性工作。目前，已有一些文献对影响重要能源资源供给安全的不确定性因素进行了研究，但所研究的因素较为分散且不够全面，对因素间的影响关系分析也不到位。鉴于此，本文对该问题进行了较深入的研究，主要的工作和结论如下： （1）辨识出影响能源供给安全的不确定性因素。通过梳理并分析国内外关于能源供给安全的研究文献，归纳出资源储量、资源空间分布特征、能源消费结构、地质条件、勘探技术、开采技术、替代技术、市场结构、能源价格、能源开采成本、GDP增长率、利率、税费、汇率、能源进口量、能源运输通道、能源政策、国际经济环境等18个不确定性因素。而后对这些因素进行描述与分类，其中10个因素属于可度量因素，8个因素属于不可度量因素；另外，2个因素具有客观不确定性，16个因素具有主观不确定性。 （2）分析出不确定性因素之间以及对能源供给安全的影响关系。首先提出影响我国重要能源资源供给安全的不确定性概念模型；其次设计出各不确定性因素对能源供给安全影响重要程度的调查问卷，并对问卷数据进行信效度检验和因子分析，证明问卷数据可靠有效且适宜进行结构方程模型分析；然后构建影响我国重要能源资源供给安全的不确定性因素结构方程模型；最后进行模型结果解析，得出这些因素之间以及对能源供给安全的影响关系。 （3）揭示出不确定性因素的变动规律。采用不确定性数学和非线性等方法中的定量、半定量化方法及事件描述等方法，对不同类型不确定性因素的变动模式或演化路径进行描述。先描述了6个不可度量主观不确定性因素的变动规律；后描述了10个可度量主观不确定因素的变动模式，并对各因素的变动规律进行了数学模型确定或趋势走向分析。

As important energy resources supplying security is threatened by many uncertainty factors, therefore, system recognizing and analyzing the impacts between those uncertainties and its changing rules which lay a solid foundation for our country's energy supply security problems. At present, it have been some studies indicating uncertainties that affecting the important energy resources. However, those existing studies are neither comprehensive nor forceful. In view of this, this paper conducts an in-depth research on this question, the main work and conclusions are as follows: (1) Identifying the factors affecting the energy supply security. By analyzing the domestic and overseas research on energy supply security,gathering 18 uncertain factors which are： resource reserves, resource spatial distribution characteristics, energy consumption structure, geological conditions, mining technology, alternative technologies, market structure, energy prices, mining costs, GDP growth rate, interest rate, taxes, exchange rate, energy import volume, energy transportation, energy policy and international environment, among which 10 factors belong to the measurable factors, 8 belong to immeasurable ones. Besides, 2 of them are objectively uncertain and 16 are subjectively uncertain. (2) Analyzing the uncertainty factors and its influence towards the energy supply security. First, proposing the uncertainty concept model that affecting the safety of China's important energy resources; second designing the questionnaire of uncertainty factors impact on the energy supply security, third examining and analyzing the questionnaire data, proving questionnaire data is real, effective and suitable for concept model; forth build the structure equation model which affecting the uncertain factors of China's important energy resources; then analyzing the model result and get the influence hiding in factors and the impact on energy supply security. (3) Analyzing the uncertainty changing rules. By using the quantification and semi-quantity in uncertainty math and nonlinearity to describe different types and different uncertain factors’ changing pattern. Describing the changing rules of the first 6 immeasurable subjective uncertain factors change regularity of subjective uncertainty factors; then the those of the last 10 measurable subjective uncertainty factors and predicting all factors’ changing rules.