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论文中文题名:

 因果复合实物期权的定价方法研究及应用    

姓名:

 李蕾    

学号:

 04435    

保密级别:

 公开    

学科名称:

 企业管理    

学生类型:

 硕士    

院系:

 管理学院    

专业:

 工商管理    

研究方向:

 实物期权    

第一导师姓名:

 张金锁    

论文外文题名:

 Research and Application on the Pricing Method of Causal Compound Real Options    

论文中文关键词:

 因果复合实物期权 ; 随机利率 ; 定价方法    

论文外文关键词:

 Causal Compound Real Options Stochast    

论文中文摘要:
在我国现实的企业投资决策之中,决策者比较偏重以净现值法(DCF)的计算结果作为投资决策的根本依据。然而传统的净现值法忽略了投资项目中的经营柔性价值与战略价值,忽视了投资时机的选择,是一种比较静态且刚性的评价方法。随着企业经营环境的复杂性与不确定性程度的提高,投资风险更多地表现在投资本身对复杂多变环境的难于适应方面。因此,在金融期权理论基础上发展起来的实物期权定价方法已逐渐被认为是重大项目投资决策的主要评价方法。近年来,尽管理论界和实业界对该方法进行了研究和应用,但对具有因果关系的复合实物期权定价方法的研究仍不够深入和完善。为此,本文在前人研究的基础上,对因果复合实物期权的定价方法进行了较系统的研究。主要的工作及研究结果为: (1)系统地定性探讨了因果复合实物期权的基础理论,包括因果复合实物期权的概念、因果复合关系、类型以及因果复合实物期权的相互影响和价值作用。 (2)在符合实际的假设条件下,构建由项目投资的标的资产、项目期权价值组成的投资组合,据此,建立了无利率影响的因果复合实物期权的定价方法,通过该方法可计算出项目的期权价值。 (3)在基本方法的基础上,假设利率变动模式符合几何布朗运动,构建了由项目投资的标的资产、项目期权价值和无风险债券组成的投资组合,据此,建立了有利率影响的因果复合实物期权的定价方法。根据该方法可进一步评价项目投资的灵活性价值。 (4)基于相关数据,分别运用无利率影响的因果复合实物期权定价方法和有利率影响的因果复合实物期权定价方法,对矿石开采项目的期权价值进行了评价,得出了满意的结果。
论文外文摘要:
In enterprises investment decision of our country, decision-maker prefer to use DCF as investment decision’s fundamental evidence. But the traditional DCF neglects the flexibility value and strategic value of projects, neglects option of investment chance, is a static and inflexible evaluation method. With the increase of complexity and uncertain in enterprises’ operating environment, investment risk show more that investment is difficult to adapt to complicated and changeable environment. Therefore, the pricing method of real options on the basis of the theory of finance options has been gradually deemed primary evaluation method of great project investment decision. Recent years this method is researched and applied in theory and industry, but the research about compound real options with causality is not still thorough and perfect. Therefore, based on research of predecessors, the paper studied systematically the pricing method of causal compound real options. The main work and research results are as follow: (1) This paper systemically qualitative discuss the basal theories of causal compound real options, including its concept, causal compound relations, types and reciprocity. (2) On the basis of assumptive conditions according with fact, an investment portfolio consisting of the object asset of project investment, the value of project options has been structured and the pricing method of causal compound real options without the influence of interest rates has been set up. The options of project can be calculated by using the method. (3) On the basis of basic method, this thesis suppose that interest rates conforms to the geometry Brown movement. An investment portfolio consisting of the object asset of project investment, the value of project options and riskless bond has been structured and the pricing method of causal compound real options under the influence of interest rates has been set up. The flexible value of project investment can be evaluated father by using the method. (4) On the basis of correlative data, the value of the exploitation project of ore mine is evaluated by using the pricing method of causal compound real options without the influence of interest rates and the pricing method of causal compound real options under the influence of interest rates, and then a satisfied result is gotten.
中图分类号:

 F224.3    

开放日期:

 2008-04-07    

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