任何事故发生之前，都有征兆出现，注重事故前征兆的识别和管理研究，充分认识险兆事件的作用机制，是实现事故控制“关口前移”的重要途径，符合安全管理发展的新趋势。因此本文运用事故致因理论、多层次理论、计划行为理论，通过文献梳理、实证分析，对员工不安全行为意向与煤矿火灾险兆事件作用机制进行研究。分析煤矿火灾险兆事件影响因素、明确煤矿火灾险兆事件作用机制、提出防控对策，为煤矿火灾事故预防提供理论依据。主要研究内容与结论如下： 首先，收集了2002至2013年发生的75起煤矿火灾事故，从人、机、环、管的角度分析产生火灾事故的原因，利用灰色关联分析方法对44例煤矿外因火灾进行了灰色关联度分析，得出人、机、环、管四个因素的灰色关联度，可知人的因素是导致煤矿外因火灾事故的最主要可控因素。 其次，从火灾发生的三要素着手，借助与矿工进行深度访谈，找出了7大类50种容易导致点火源产生的员工不安全行为，为编制不安全行为意向量表奠定基础。利用实证分析对员工不安全行为意向影响因素进行了研究。研究表明：员工不安全行为意向影响因素包括安全态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制。安全态度包括风险感知和便捷感知；主观规范包括来自管理者的压力和来自工友的压力；知觉行为控制包括自我效能和工作条件。通过分析得出安全态度与员工不安全行为意向显著正相关，相关系数为0.91；主观规范与员工不安全行为意向显著正相关，相关系数为0.77；知觉行为控制与员工不安全行为显著正相关，相关系数为0.73。 第三，基于事故致因理论、多层次理论、计划行为理论，初步构建了煤矿火灾险兆事件作用机制模型，提出了假设。利用实证分析验证了煤矿火灾险兆事件作用机制的中介效应。研究表明：员工不安全行为意向影响员工不安全行为，员工不安全行为影响煤矿火灾险兆事件，且员工不安全行为在员工不安全行为意向与煤矿火灾险兆事件关系中起完全中介作用。员工不安全行为又分为管理者不安全行为和员工个体的不安全行为。管理者不安全行为包括安全政策的制定、安全规程的实施、安全环境的提供、对员工个体行为的管理和安全监督。员工个体的不安全行为包括参与性行为和服从性行为。 最后利用HLM7.0多层次分析软件，验证了班组安全氛围这一群体变量在员工不安全行为与煤矿火灾险兆事件关系中的调节效应。研究表明：班组安全氛围在员工不安全行为与煤矿火灾险兆事件关系中起调节作用。班组安全氛围良好时，员工不安全行为与煤矿火灾险兆事件关系会减弱，即员工的不安全行为导致发生煤矿火灾险兆事件的可能性会降低。班组安全氛围这一群体变量又包括沟通交流、安全知识培训、安全动机、安全监督。通过多层次分析可知，安全知识培训与安全动机在管理者不安全行为与煤矿火灾险兆事件关系中起调节作用；沟通交流、安全知识培训、安全动机和安全监督在员工不安全行为与煤矿火灾险兆事件关系中起调节作用。 以上研究成果丰富和扩展了煤矿险兆事件发生的作用机制，厘清了员工不安全行为意向、员工不安全行为、班组安全氛围与煤矿火灾险兆事件这些变量之间的关系，给防控煤矿火灾事故和险兆事件指出了明确的方向，有利于煤矿安全管理水平的提升。 本文受国家自然科学基金面上项目“煤矿‘险兆事件’致因机理与‘组合干预’策略研究”（编号：71273208），国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国情境下煤矿工人不安全行为多层次理论模型构建与度量研究”（编号：71271169）资助。

Indication can appear prior to any accident. Above all, it is a front rank approach to achieve the objective of Prevention Beforehand by laying emphasis on recognizing, administrating and researching the portent before accidents and understanding the action mechanism of Near Miss. It’s in line with the new developing trends of safety management. This thesis studied the action mechanism of employees’ unsafe behavioral intention on Near Miss of coal mine fire via literature review and empirical analysis. The Theory of Accident Causation, Multi-level Theory and Planned Behavior Theory were used. By analyzing the influencing factors, clarifying the action mechanism and proposing countermeasures of coal mine fire Near Miss, the dissertation offered theoretical foundation to guard against coal mine fire accidents. The main research contents and conclusion are as follows: Firstly, 75 coal mine fire accidents from 2002 to 2013 had been studied and the causes of fire accidents from the factors of people, Machines, Environment and Management were analyzed. 44 mine fire cases were analyzed by using the method of gray correlation analysis. The results of the grey correlative degree of four factors (people, machines, environment and management) are obtained. Which comes to a conclusion that People is the main factor resulting in coal mine fire accident. Secondly, 50 kinds in 7 types of employee’s unsafe behaviors causing ignition were found out according to the main three factors lead to fire, laying the foundation for the establishment of unsafe behavioral intention scale. Influence factors of employee’s unsafe behavioral intention were studied by empirical analysis.Research showed that: the influence factors of employee’s unsafe behavioral intention include safety attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavior control. Safety attitude includes risk perception and convenient perception; subjective norms includes pressure from regulators and co-workers; perceived behavioral control includes self-efficacy and working conditions. Significantly, the safety attitude and employee’s unsafe behavioral intention present positive correlation through the analysis and the correlation coefficient is 0.91; significant positive correlation is also presented between subjective norm and employee’s unsafe behavioral intention, the correlation coefficient is 0.77; perceived behavioral control and employee’s unsafe behavior appear significantly positive correlation too, the correlation coefficient is 0.73. Thirdly, based on Accident-Causing Theory, Multi-level Theory and Planned Behavior Theory, the model of effect mechanism for the coal mine fire near miss was preliminarily constructed and the hypothesis were put forward.the mediator effectof effect mechanism model for the coal mine fire near miss was tested by empirical analysis. Research showed that: employee’s unsafe behavioral intention influences employee’s unsafe behavior and then influences near miss, employee’s unsafe behavior is the complete mediator between employee’s unsafe behavioral intention and the coal mine fire near miss. The employee’s unsafe behavior is divided into manager’s unsafe behavior and employee’s unsafe behavior. The manager’s unsafe behavior includes security policy setting and implementation, security climate, safety supervision to individual employee’s behavior and safety surveillance. Employee’s unsafe behavior includes safety participation and safety obedience. Finally, the team safety climate as a group variable was verified through HLM7.0 multi-level analysis software, which proved its adjustment between unsafe behavior of employees and fire near miss of coal mine. Research shows that: the safety climate of team plays a regulatory role in the relationship between employee’s unsafety behavior and the coal mine fire near miss. Where there is a well team safety climate, there is a weak relationship between employee’s unsafe behavior and the coal mine near miss events which means the possibility of coal mine fire events caused by employee’s unsafe behavior will reduce. The team safety climate includes communication, safety knowledge training, safety motivation, safety supervision. Through multi-level analysis, safety knowledge training and safety motivation play a regulatory role in the relationship between manager’s unsafe behavior and the coal mine fire near miss. Communication, safety knowledge training, safety motivation and safety supervision play a regulatory role in the relationship between employee’s unsafe behavior and the coal mine fire near miss. The above research results enrich and extend the study on action mechanism of coal mine near miss, clarify the relationship between the factors including employee’s unsafe behavioral intention, employee’s unsafe behavior, team safety climate and the coal mine fire near miss. Besides, the results provide a clear direction for the prevention of mine fire accident and control of the near miss, which is conducive to enhance the management level of coal mine safety. This thesis was funded by National Natural Science Fundation of China “Research on Causal Mechanism of Near Miss Mine and Combined Intervention Strategies in Coal”(NO.71273208), “Study on multi-level theory model of coal mine unsafe behavior in China”(NO.71271169).