重大突发公共卫生事件引发的网络舆情传播规模大，且极易衍生负面舆情对社会造成严重影响，进而恶化网络舆情发展，加大监管部门的管理和应对难度。掌握重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播规律和特征，才能为监管部门处置重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情提供理论参考。通过及时干预网络舆情传播关键节点、制定合理干预策略集，为引导网络舆情演化和针对性防控提供理论依据。因此，本文以揭示重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播规律与建立传播规律模型为起点，以及时干预和管控舆情为落脚点，对重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播规律及干预进行了一系列研究。

      本文通过构建传播规律模型，揭示重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播规律，运用Gephi可视化识别传播关键节点，根据划分的六阶段传播规律，提出干预策略集，构建重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情干预理论模型。在SEIR模型基础上，通过NetLogo仿真分析模型中的传播影响因子，构建重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播规律模型；基于生命周期理论，揭示重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播规律。分析重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情监测与预警关键传播渠道，通过Gephi可视化识别传播关键节点，大数据技术监测热点话题、高频关键词，细化重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情的预警依据、手段，确立预警等级，建立重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情监测与预警机制。在传播规律、监测与预警研究基础上，针对性地提出监管部门对重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情的干预策略集，构建重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情干预理论模型。以2021年底西安市新冠肺炎疫情为例进行实证分析，验证本文重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播规律及干预模型的科学性，并提出相应干预方法和引导建议。

      研究表明当前重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播规律符合潜伏、发酵、爆发、缓解、反复、衰退六阶段。“传播涉及总人数”“初始传播人数”“传播周期”对重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播过程有显著影响，当传播涉及总人数为1000人、初始传播者人数为10人、传播周期为5天时是干预舆情发展的最佳时机。实现对重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情的监测与预警可从“热点话题监测”“高频关键词监测”及“识别传播关键节点”三个方面进行。由此得出，通过对网络舆情各阶段传播过程、传播关键节点进行监测与预警，掌握重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情传播规律，从而实现对重大突发公共卫生件网络舆情的有效干预。该研究为监管部门处置重大突发公共卫生事件网络舆情提供新思路，具有重要的实践参考意义和理论价值。

      The spread of network public opinion caused by major public health emergencies is large, and it is easy to derive negative public opinion that has a serious impact on society, thus deteriorating the development of network public opinion and increasing the difficulty of management and response of regulatory authorities. Mastering the propagation law and characteristics of network public opinion in major public health emergencies can provide theoretical reference for regulatory authorities to deal with network public opinion in major public health emergencies. By timely intervening the key nodes of network public opinion propagation and formulating reasonable intervention strategy set, it provides a theoretical basis for guiding the evolution of network public opinion and targeted prevention and control. Therefore, this paper takes revealing the propagation law and establishing the propagation law model of network public opinion in major public health emergencies as the starting point, and timely intervention and control of public opinion as the foothold, and conducts a series of studies on the propagation law and intervention of network public opinion in major public health emergencies.

      In this paper, the propagation law model is constructed to reveal the propagation law of network public opinion in major public health emergencies. Gephi visualization is used to identify the key nodes of propagation. According to the six-stage propagation law, the intervention strategy set is proposed to construct the theoretical model of network public opinion intervention in major public health emergencies. Based on the SEIR model, the propagation law model of network public opinion in major public health emergencies is constructed through the propagation influence factors in the NetLogo simulation analysis model. Based on the life cycle theory, this paper reveals the network public opinion propagation law of major public health emergencies. The key propagation channels of network public opinion monitoring and early warning for major public health emergencies are analyzed. The key nodes of propagation are identified by Gephi visualization. The hot topics and high-frequency keywords are monitored by big data technology. The early warning basis and means of network public opinion for major public health emergencies are refined, the early warning level is established, and the network public opinion monitoring and early warning mechanism for major public health emergencies is established. Based on the study of propagation law, monitoring and early warning, this paper puts forward the intervention strategy set of supervision departments for network public opinion of major public health emergencies, and constructs the theoretical model of network public opinion intervention of major public health emergencies. Taking the epidemic of new coronavirus pneumonia in Xi’ an at the end of 2021 as an example, this paper verifies the scientific nature of the network public opinion dissemination law and intervention model of major public health emergencies, and puts forward corresponding intervention methods and guidance suggestions.

      Research shows that the current major public health emergencies network public opinion propagation law conforms to the latent, fermentation, outbreak, mitigation, repeated, recession six stages. The “ total number of communication involved ”, “ initial number of communication ” and “ communication cycle ” have a significant impact on the process of network public opinion dissemination in major public health emergencies. When the total number of communication involved is 1000, the initial number of communicators is 10 and the communication cycle is 5 days, it is the best time to intervene in the development of public opinion. Monitoring and early warning of network public opinion in major public health emergencies can be carried out from three aspects : “hot topic monitoring”, “high frequency keyword monitoring” and “identifying key nodes of propagation”. It is concluded that through the monitoring and early warning of the propagation process and key nodes of network public opinion in each stage, the propagation law of network public opinion in major public health emergencies is mastered, so as to realize the effective intervention of network public opinion in major public health emergencies. This study provides a new idea for the regulatory authorities to deal with the network public opinion of major public health emergencies, which has important practical reference significance and theoretical value.

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