水资源短缺严重制约着干旱半干旱地区的农业健康发展。随着我国人口的不断增长与城市的快速扩张，东南部耕地资源的开发潜力愈发有限，粮食、瓜果等作物的主产区重心不断北移，西北地区在保障粮食安全方面的作用越来越突出。然而该地区水土资源并不匹配，在当前这种农作物大规模生产且水资源量不足的失衡状态下，高耗水的农业生产会给西北地区水资源安全带来巨大挑战。因此，明确西北地区大规模的农作物生产和贸易对水资源的影响，寻求缓解农业用水压力的基本途径，是西北地区农业可持续发展的关键。    本文基于水足迹和虚拟水理论，结合Penman-Monteith模型和CROPWAT 8.0、ArcGIS软件核算了我国西北地区63个地市（州、盟）11类农作物的生产水足迹，系统分析了各地农作物生产水足迹的时空演变特征，探究了农作物虚拟水流动规律，评价了农作物生产贸易过程对水资源压力的影响。得到如下结果：

（1）西北地区大部分农作物的生长发育依赖灌溉用水，只有苹果耗水类型以降雨为主。西北地区春季3-5月降雨量较少，农作物耗水以灌溉水为主；夏季6-8月正值雨季，农作物绿水足迹占比明显增大；秋冬季节因部分农作物生长消耗减少，蓝绿水足迹逐渐减小。农作物单产绿水足迹的空间分布与地区降雨量一致，由西北向东南递增，蓝水足迹与之相反，呈西北高东南低的空间分布格局，与大型灌区分布一致。

（2）2000-2019 年西北地区农作物单产水足迹减少了38.8%，但农作物单产水足迹减少的速率不及产量增长的速率，农作物水需求增长了40.7%。截止2019年农作物生产耗水量达到了1353.26亿m³，持续增长的农作物耗水需求并不利于地区农业与水资源的可持续发展。从空间分布来看，由于地区农作物生产结构不同，西北地区各市（州、盟）的农作物生产总水足迹分布各异，因农作物生产规模较大，耗水量高值区主要分布在呼伦贝尔市、通辽市、喀什地区和阿克苏地区。

（3）20年来西北地区农作物虚拟水输出区由26个增加至37个，且输出区逐渐向北聚集。基本形成了以呼伦贝尔市、喀什地区以及和田地区为代表的虚拟水输出中心和以东南部各省会城市为首的虚拟水输入中心。输出中心以输出玉米和棉花为主，输入中心以输入稻谷为主。省会城市通过输入农作物缓解当地水资源压力，以求将水资源用于更具省会城市功能的其他行业。

（4）西北地区水资源短缺，农业可利用水量进一步缩减，部分地区的水资源因农作物大规模生产而处于严重压力状态。以西安市为代表的高水资源匮乏度集中区，自身水资源有限，通过扩大农作物输入贸易量来缓解当地水资源紧缺程度。以昌吉回族自治州为代表的高水资源自给率集中区，对外部依赖较小，但由于农作物输出量持续增长，农业用水压力不断增大。西北地区可利用水资源量分布不均，农业生产结构不够合理，要实现农业健康发展和水资源可持续利用需合理调整当地水资源配置，适当减少高耗水产品的生产，有效控制农作物生产水足迹，减小用水压力。

本研究以水足迹和虚拟水的视角，在量化西北地区农作物生产水足迹和虚拟水的基础上，评估了农业水资源安全风险。以期为我国西北地区农作物生产结构优化、农业水资源协调利用以及缓解农业用水面临的压力       提供理论支撑。

The shortage of water resources seriously restricts the healthy development of agriculture in arid and semi-arid areas. With the continuous growth of China's population and the rapid expansion of cities, the development potential of cultivated land resources in the southeast is becoming more and more limited. The center of gravity of the main production areas of crops such as grain, melons and fruits is moving northward. The role of the northwest in ensuring food security is becoming more and more prominent. However, the water and soil resources in this area do not match. Under the current imbalance of large-scale production of crops and insufficient water resources, high water consumption agricultural production will bring great challenges to the water resources security in Northwest China. Therefore, the key to the sustainable development of agriculture in Northwest China is to clarify the impact of large-scale crop production and trade on water resources in Northwest China, and to seek the basic ways to alleviate the pressure of agricultural water use. Based on water footprint and virtual water theory, combined with penman Monteith model, CROPWAT 8.0 and ArcGIS software, this paper calculates the production water footprint of 11 types of crops in 63 cities (prefectures and leagues) in Northwest China, systematically analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of crop production water footprint, explores the law of crop virtual water flow, and evaluates the impact of crop production and trade process on water resource pressure. The following results were obtained:

(1) The growth and development of most crops in Northwest China depend on irrigation water, and only the type of apple water consumption is mainly rainfall. There is less rainfall in Northwest China from March to may in spring, and the water consumption of crops is mainly irrigation water; From June to August in summer, it is rainy season, and the proportion of green water footprint of crops increases significantly; In autumn and winter, due to the reduction of the growth consumption of some crops, the blue-green water footprint gradually decreases. The spatial distribution of the green water footprint of crop yield per unit area is consistent with the regional rainfall, increasing from northwest to Southeast. On the contrary, the blue water footprint shows a spatial distribution pattern of high in Northwest and low in southeast, which is consistent with the distribution of large-scale irrigation areas.

(2) From 2000 to 2019, the water footprint per unit yield of crops in Northwest China decreased by 38.8%, but the reduction rate of water footprint per unit yield of crops was less than the rate of output growth, and the water demand of crops increased by 40.7%. By 2019, the water consumption for crop production has reached 135.326 billion m³, and the growing demand for crop water consumption is not conducive to the sustainable development of regional agriculture and water resources. From the perspective of spatial distribution, due to different regional crop production structures, the total water footprint of crop production in cities (prefectures and leagues) in Northwest China varies. Due to the large scale of crop production, high water consumption areas are mainly distributed in Hulunbuir, Tongliao, Kashgar and Aksu.

(3) In the past 20 years, the number of crop virtual water export areas in Northwest China has increased from 26 to 37, and the export areas have gradually gathered to the north. It has basically formed a virtual water output center represented by Hulunbuir City, Kashgar region and Hotan region and a virtual water input center led by provincial capitals in the southeast. The output center mainly exports corn and cotton, and the input center mainly imports rice. The provincial capital city alleviates the pressure of local water resources by importing crops, so as to use water resources for other industries with more functions of the provincial capital city.

(4) Northwest China is short of water resources, and the available water for agriculture is further reduced. The water resources in some areas are under serious pressure due to the large-scale production of crops. Xi'an City, as a representative of the high water resource shortage concentration area, has limited water resources. The local water resource shortage can be alleviated by expanding the import and trade volume of crops. The high water self-sufficiency concentration area represented by Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture is less dependent on the outside, but the agricultural water pressure is increasing due to the continuous growth of crop output. The available water resources in Northwest China are unevenly distributed, and the agricultural production structure is not reasonable. In order to realize the healthy development of agriculture and the sustainable utilization of water resources, it is necessary to reasonably adjust the local water resources allocation, appropriately reduce the production of high water consumption products, effectively control the water footprint of crop production, and reduce the water pressure.

From the perspective of water footprint and virtual water, this study evaluated the risk of agricultural water resources security on the basis of quantifying the water footprint and virtual water of crop production in Northwest China. In order to optimize crop production structure, coordinate the utilization of agricultural water resources and alleviate the pressure of agricultural water use in Northwest China Provide theoretical support.

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