矿井水害一直是影响煤矿安全生产的重大灾害之一，对煤层开采时的水害隐患进行详细预测对生产至关重要。本文以陕北侏罗纪煤田柠条塔井田南翼南部区域为对象，研究双煤层开采条件下的矿井水害隐患预测问题。本文系统研究了风化基岩含水层富水性、单煤层和双煤层开采导水裂隙带发育规律及涌（突）水危险性、2^-2煤未采区域水害隐患预测、2^-2煤采空区积水区范围及积水量预测、3^-1煤开采水害隐患预测。主要结果如下：

（1）利用麻雀算法优化支持向量机（SSA-SVM）对风化基岩含水层富水性进行分区预测并采用实测数据和突水点验证。结果显示研究区南部中间区域、东南区域及S1231工作面附近为强富水区，西北部主要为弱富水区，中部以中等富水性为主。2^-2煤回采之后，经过采前采后的数据对比显示风化基岩富水性整体减弱，单位涌水量平均下降至采前的14.5%。

（2）通过3DEC数值模拟和经验公式计算之后与导高实测数据对比分析，确定了2^-2煤和3^-1煤开采导水裂隙带的发育高度。2^-2煤单独开采时，导水裂隙带发育高度较大，研究区东部大部分冒落带直接发育至风化基岩含水层。双煤层开采时，3^-1煤开采加剧了2^-2煤覆岩的二次扰动并且两个煤层的导水裂隙带互相贯通，2^-2煤冒落带弯曲下沉，进一步增大涌（突）水风险。根据导水裂隙带发育高度和冒落带高度，对2^-2煤和3^-1煤开采的冒裂安全性进行了分区。结果显示整体上自西北向东南，冒裂危险性逐渐增强。

（3）基于冒裂安全性分区与风化基岩含水层富水性的叠加分析，进行双煤层开采涌（突）水危险性预测。2^-2煤危险性极大区和危险性大区主要分布在研究区东南方向和南部中间区域。3^-1煤开采时同样需要重点关注东部区域。东南部及中部区域需要强化探放水、实时监测等操作，避免发生突水事故。

（4）以涌（突）水危险性分区结果为基础进行双煤层开采水害隐患预测，2^-2煤未采区域中部及东部工作面存在水害隐患大的区域，特别是烧变岩赋存区域，需提前做好防范措施。研究区2^-2煤回采会形成22处采空区积水区域，对3^-1煤回采水害隐患极大，其余区域整体上东部水害隐患比西部大。

Mine water hazards have always been one of the major disasters affecting coal mine safety production. Detailed prediction of water hazards during coal seam mining is crucial to production. This paper takes the southern area of the southern wing of the Ningtiaota Mine Field in the Jurassic Coalfield in northern Shaanxi as the research object. Aiming at the problem of predicting mine water hazards under the conditions of double coal seam mining, this paper systematically studies the water richness of weathered bedrock aquifers, the development law of water-conducting fracture zones in single coal seam and double coal seam mining and the danger of water inrush (burst), the prediction of water hazards in the unmined area of 2^-2 coal, the range and amount of water accumulation in the goaf of 2^-2 coal, and the prediction of water hazards in the mining of 3^-1 coal. The main results are as follows:

(1) The Support vector machine prediction of the water abundance of the weathered bedrock aquifer is carried out by using the sparrow algorithm optimization (SSA-SVM) and verified by the measured data and water inrush points. The results show that the middle area in the south of the study area, the southeast area and the vicinity of the S1231 working face are strong water-rich areas, the northwest is mainly weak water-rich areas, and the central part is mainly medium water-rich areas. After the 2^-2 coal was mined, the data comparison before and after mining showed that the water abundance of weathered bedrock was weakened as a whole, and the unit water inflow decreased to 14.5% of that before mining.

(2) The development height of water flowing fractured zone in 2^-2 coal and 3^-1 coal mining was determined by 3DEC numerical simulation and empirical formula calculation. When 2^-2 coal is mined alone, the height of water flowing fractured zone is large, and most of the caving zones in the eastern part of the study area develop directly to the weathered bedrock aquifer. During the mining of double coal seams, the mining of the 3^-1 coal seam aggravates the secondary disturbance of the overlying strata of the 2^-2 coal seam, and the water flowing fractured zones of the two coal seams connect with each other, and the caving zone of the 2^-2 coal seam bends and subsides, which further increases the risk of water inrush. According to the height of water flowing fractured zone and caving zone, the caving safety of 2^-2 coal seam and 3^-1 coal seam is divided. The results show that the risk of caving increases from northwest to southeast.

(3) Based on the superposition analysis of the safety zoning of caving and the water abundance of weathered bedrock aquifer, the risk of water inrush in double coal seam mining is predicted. The 2^-2 coal seam is distributed in the southeast and middle part of the study area. The mining of 3^-1 coal also needs to focus on the eastern region. The southeast and central regions need to strengthen water exploration and real-time monitoring to avoid water inrush accidents.

(4) Based on the results of water inrush risk zoning, the hidden danger of water hazard in double coal seam mining is predicted. There are large areas of water hazard in the central and eastern working faces of the unmined area of 2^-2 coal seam, especially in the burnt rock occurrence area, precautionary measures should be taken in advance. The mining of 2^-2 coal in the study area will form 22 water accumulation areas in the goaf, which has a great potential for water hazard in 3^-1 coal mining, and the water hazard in the east is greater than that in the west in the rest of the area.