泾河流域作为黄土高原腹地生态脆弱的典型流域，在全球气候变化的大背景下，水资源压力大且时空分布极不均衡。本文通过构建SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）模型，定量化分析了近20年泾河流域生态系统各水文过程和生态系统水源涵养服务。结合PLUS（Patch-generating Land Use Simulation）模型、未来气侯数据产品以及深度学习LSTM（Long-term and short-term memory）模型，预测未来泾河流域土地利用与NDVI多情景数据等，以“双碳”战略2030、2060年时间节点，预测并评估未来“土地利用/覆被+气候变化”9种综合情景下的生态系统水源涵养服务，为流域高质量发展和生态治理提供参考。主要结论如下：

（1）退耕还林和建设用地扩张等人为原因造成泾河流域土地利用/覆被变化显著。随着退耕还林还草政策的有效实施，植被覆盖度总体从2000年的以稀疏和较稀疏为主转变为以茂盛和较茂盛为主。土地利用类型中，耕地和建设用地变化最为明显，变化量分别为-697.05km²和614.38km²，且耕地向建设用地的转变最为显著。

（2）流域内生态系统水源涵养服务和各水文过程变化显著。生态系统水源涵养服务高值集中在6-9月，且存在明显的空间差异。林草地交错、植被覆盖度较高且地形较平坦的地区能充分发挥生态系统水源涵养服务，而以耕地和草地为主、植被覆盖相对破碎的丘陵沟壑区生态系统水源涵养服务则较弱，在空间上呈“西北低、东南高”态势。从水文过程看，年均壤中流量与降水量的波动变化趋势最为贴合，地表径流量较小，而地下径流量则表现出了一定的滞后性。

（3）未来不同情景下的生态系统水源涵养服务存在差异。与2020年相比，2030、2060年9种情景下的生态系统水源涵养服务存在不同程度降低，空间分布极不均衡，仍存在南北差异。不同气候情景下的生态系统水源涵养服务大小为SSP126> SSP245> SSP585，不同土地利用情景下的大小为生态保护>自然发展>经济发展。空间分布上，流域西南部的六盘山和东部的子午岭林区生态系统水源涵养服务较高，而流域北部的黄土丘陵区和流域东南部建设用地较集中的区域生态系统水源涵养服务较低。“EP-SSP126”（生态保护与低胁迫）情景中生态系统水源涵养服务最大，得益于生态保护策略对高涵养地类的保护以及SSP126低胁迫气候下高降水量、良好植被覆盖和低蒸散发损耗的共同作用。

The Jing River Basin, as a typical watershed with fragile ecology in the heart of the Loess Plateau, faces significant water resource pressures and highly uneven spatial and temporal distribution under the backdrop of global climate change. This paper constructs the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to quantitatively analyze the hydrological processes and ecosystem water conservation services of the Jing River Basin ecosystem over the past 20 years. Combining the PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model, future climate data products, and the deep learning LSTM (Long-term and short-term memory) model, it predicts future land use and NDVI multi-scenario data in the Jing River Basin. Using the "dual carbon" strategy's goals for 2030 and 2060 as milestones, it forecasts and assesses the ecosystem water conservation services under nine comprehensive scenarios of "land use/land cover + climate change" to provide a reference for high-quality development and ecological governance of the basin. The main conclusions are as follows:

(1) Human activities such as converting farmland to forest and expanding construction land have significantly changed the land use/land cover in the Jing River Basin. With the effective implementation of the policy to revert farmland to forest and grassland, the vegetation coverage has generally shifted from sparse and less sparse in 2000 to lush and more lush. Among the types of land use, the most significant changes are in cultivated land and construction land, with changes of -697.05 km² and 614.38 km², respectively, and the conversion from cultivated land to construction land being the most pronounced.

(2) There have been significant changes in the ecosystem water conservation services and hydrological processes within the basin. The high values of ecosystem water conservation services are concentrated from June to September, with obvious spatial differences. Areas with mixed forest and grassland, higher vegetation coverage, and flatter terrain can fully utilize the ecosystem water conservation services, while the hilly and gully areas dominated by cultivated land and grassland with relatively fragmented vegetation cover have weaker services, showing a spatial pattern of "lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast." From the perspective of hydrological processes, the annual average soil flow fits most closely with the fluctuation trend of precipitation, with smaller surface runoff and some lag in groundwater flow(3) There are differences in ecosystem water conservation services under different future scenarios. Compared to 2020, the services are reduced to varying degrees in 2030 and 2060 under the nine scenarios, with highly uneven spatial distribution and persistent differences between the north and the south. The magnitude of ecosystem water conservation services under different climate scenarios is SSP126 > SSP245 > SSP585, and under different land use scenarios, it is ecological protection > natural development > economic development. Spatially, the eastern Liupan Mountain and the western Ziwuling areas have higher services, while the northern loess hilly areas and the southeastern regions with concentrated construction land have lower services. The "EP-SSP126" (ecological protection and low-stress) scenario has the greatest ecosystem water conservation services, benefiting from the ecological protection strategy’s preservation of high conservation land types and the combined effects of high precipitation, good vegetation cover, and low evapotranspiration loss under the SSP126 low-stress climate.