尽管我国近年出台多项煤矿安全生产政策，事故率仍有反扑趋势，数据显示多数事故与人员不安全行为相关。当前管理依赖制度约束，难以根除隐患，因此引入“安全公民行为”概念，即煤矿工人在生产中自愿做出的、超越岗位安全职责、旨在维护安全与预防事故的主动行为。针对该领域研究不足，本研究以煤矿工人为对象，基于“由浅入深、动静结合”思路，通过影响因素识别、分析及仿真建模，揭示安全公民行为的演化规律。

首先，通过半结构访谈获取21名煤矿一线工人的7.8万字文本数据，运用扎根理论得到112个概念、27项初始范畴、12个影响因素、5个次级核心范畴与1个核心范畴组成的影响因素体系。基于此，结合本研究理论基础并梳理范畴间逻辑关联，依据扎根理论构建煤矿工人安全公民行为影响因素的概念模型。依托模糊DEMATEL-ISM-ANP方法，对各影响因素的影响度、被影响度、原因度以及中心度进行计算，在明晰影响因素量化关系的基础上，进而基于影响因素的层级结构划分，界定煤矿工人安全公民行为的直接作用因素、间接传导因素及根源性影响因素，继而测算各影响因素的权重值与优先级排序，据此遴选出对煤矿工人安全公民行为起关键作用的核心因素。然后基于系统动力学仿真，构建因果关系图及系统动力学流图，从动态角度揭示煤矿工人安全公民行为的演化趋势，同时进行不同方案仿真，最后从企业、政府及煤矿工人三个角度提出安全公民行为的引导对策。

研究发现，煤矿工人安全公民行为主要受十二个二级因素和五个一级因素影响，即态度中包含工作态度、人际态度、组织态度，主观规范包含工作群体压力、家人安全期望，机会中包含企业机会、社会机会，行为动机中包含利己动机、利他动机，安全能力中包含认知能力、实践能力、社交能力。通过模糊DEMATEL-ISM-ANP方法的系统性分析表明，社会机会是影响煤矿工人安全公民行为的根源性因素，工作态度、利己动机、利他动机、实践能力为直接因素，对安全公民行为影响程度最高的三个影响分别为企业机会、社会机会和利他动机。系统动力学仿真结果显示各影响因素都会提升煤矿工人安全公民行为水平，对于煤矿工人安全公民行为水平的提升效果由大到小依次为企业机会、社会机会、工作群体压力、认知能力、实践能力、利他动机、社交能力、家人安全期望、利己动机、组织态度、工作态度、人际态度。

Despite China's implementation of multiple coal mine safety production policies in recent years, accident rates have shown signs of resurgence, with statistical evidence indicating that the majority of incidents are linked to unsafe human behaviors. Data indicates that most accidents are related to unsafe human behaviors. Current management primarily relies on institutional constraints, which proves insufficient to eliminate hidden risks. Therefore, this study introduces the concept of "safety citizenship behavior" - voluntary actions by coal miners that exceed formal safety responsibilities, proactively taken to maintain safety and prevent accidents. Addressing the research gap in this field, this investigation adopts a "step-by-step approach integrating static and dynamic factors" to study coal miners. Through identification and analysis of influencing factors combined with simulation modeling, it aims to reveal the evolutionary mechanisms of safety citizenship behavior.

First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 frontline coal miners, generating 78,000-word textual data. Using grounded theory methodology, we established an influencing factor system comprising 112 concepts, 27 initial categories, 12 influencing factors, 5 secondary core categories, and 1 core category. Building on this foundation and integrating the theoretical framework of this study, we systematically organized the logical relationships between categories and, guided by grounded theory, constructed a conceptual model of factors influencing coal miners' Safety Citizenship Behavior. Employing the fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM-ANP method, we calculated the influence degree, influenced degree, causal degree, and centrality of each factor. Through hierarchical analysis of these quantified relationships, we categorized the factors into direct drivers, indirect mediators, and root causes of safety citizenship behavior. Subsequently, we determined the weight values and priority rankings of these factors, identifying core elements critical to shaping coal miners' safety citizenship behavior. Using system dynamics simulation, we developed causal loop diagrams and system dynamics flow diagrams to reveal the evolutionary trajectory of safety citizenship behavior from a dynamic perspective. Multiple scenario simulations were conducted to validate the model. Finally, we proposed targeted guidance strategies from three perspectives: coal mining enterprises, government agencies, and coal miners themselves, to effectively cultivate and reinforce safety citizenship behaviors.

The study revealed that coal miners' safety citizenship behavior is primarily influenced by twelve secondary factors and five primary factors : Attitudes encompassing work attitude, interpersonal attitude, and organizational attitude; Subjective norms including peer group pressure and family safety expectations; Opportunities involving enterprise opportunities and societal opportunities; Behavioral motivations comprising self-interest motivation and altruistic motivation; Safety competencies covering cognitive ability, practical ability, and social ability. The systematic analysis employing the fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM-ANP method reveals that societal opportunities constitute the root cause influencing coal miners' safety citizenship behavio, while work attitude, self-interest motivation, altruistic motivation, and practical ability are identified as direct drivers. The three most impactful factors on SCB are enterprise opportunities, societal opportunities, and altruistic motivation. The system dynamics simulation results indicate that all influencing factors contribute to enhancing coal miners' safety citizenship behavior levels. The magnitude of their impact, ranked in descending order, is as follows: enterprise opportunities, societal opportunities, peer group pressure, cognitive ability, practical ability, altruistic motivation, social ability, family safety expectations, self-interest motivation, organizational attitude, work attitude, and interpersonal attitude.