论文中文题名: | 中亚国家能源化工发展与陕西经济增长关联度分析 |
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学号: | 16202001001 |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位年度: | 2019 |
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论文外文题名: | Analysis of the Relationship between the Development of Energy Chemical in Central Asia and Shaanxi Economic Growth |
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论文外文关键词: | Central Asia ; Energy Chemical ; New Economic Geography ; Economic Growth ; Spatial Econometric Model |
论文中文摘要: |
摘要
能源化工行业的蓬勃发展作为陕西经济增长的重要一环,受到诸多关注,在其高速发展的同时,同样出现了产能过剩的现象,在“一带一路”战略背景下,放眼邻邦——中亚国家,其能源化工发展具有先天资源优势,我们自然而然会提出这样的假设:倘若中亚国家能源化工稳定发展是否会对陕西经济增长产生新一轮的拉动。这也是我们亟待解决的问题。
考虑到中亚国家与陕西在地理位置上的天然优势,若能依据空间经济学发展区域经济一体化,不失为促进陕西经济增长的一条新出路。自新经济地理学理论提出以来,在解释产业集聚、地区差异以及区域经济发展等方面都得到了广泛应用,本文将以新经济地理学、区域经济一体化等相关理论为基础,构建能源化工发展与经济增长关联模型,通过理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法,将中亚国家细分为43个州,使其与陕西保持在同一样本维度,同时构建能源化工发展指标体系和经济增长指标体系,嵌套在空间计量模型当中,最终形成以人均GDP为被解释变量,以能源化工发展、科学技术、专业人才、产能合作、装备制造为解释变量的关联模型。
依据空间地理距离,运用GeoDa软件构建空间权重矩阵,并选用2006-2016年11年的面板数据计算全局莫兰指数,判断是否存在空间相关性,再进行OLS回归及LM检验,确定模型最终类型,将结果进行特殊点比较分析和横向比较分析。最终得出中亚国家能源化工发展与陕西经济增长存在正向的空间相关性,虽然这一正向影响效果不是很大,并且整体上呈现逐年起伏下降的趋势,但在2016年却有所回升。此外,从产业转移角度来看,能源化工发展在中亚地区发挥积极作用,并传播到陕西是一个先整体后局部的过程,需要持续关注。
基于以上分析,为了促进陕西经济快速稳定增长,必须充分利用其地理区位优势,团结一切可以团结的力量,利用一切可以利用的资源,加强跨区域间合作,不断优化产业结构,做到优势互补,同时不断加深国家间政治文化交流,减少区域分割,促进经济一体化发展,保障陕西经济稳定增长。
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论文外文摘要: |
ABSTRACT
The vigorous development of the energy and chemical industry is an important part of Shaanxi's economic growth. It has received a lot of attention. At the same time of its rapid development, there has also been a phenomenon of overcapacity. Under the “One Belt, One Road” strategy, look at the neighboring countries – Central Asian countries. We have to think that its energy and chemical development has innate resource advantages. If the stable development of energy and chemical industry in Central Asia will have a new round of economic growth in Shaanxi.
Considering the geographical advantages of Central Asian countries and Shaanxi, if we can develop regional economic integration based on spatial economics, it is a new way to promote Shaanxi's economic growth. Since the introduction of the new economic geography theory, it has been widely used in explaining industrial agglomeration, regional differences and regional economic development. This paper will build energy and chemical development based on relevant theories of new economic geography and regional economic integration. In association with economic growth, through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research, the Central Asian countries are subdivided into 43 states, keeping them in the same sample dimension as Shaanxi, and at the same time building an energy and chemical development index system and economic growth indicator system. Nested in the spatial econometric model, and finally form a correlation model with per capita GDP as the explanatory variable, energy and chemical development, science and technology, professional talents, capacity cooperation, and equipment manufacturing as explanatory variables, and use 2006-2016 11 years The panel data is analyzed and studied. Finally, there is a positive spatial correlation between the development of energy and chemical industry in Central Asian countries and Shaanxi's economic growth. Although this positive effect is not very large, and the overall trend is declining year by year, it has rebounded in 2016. In addition, from the perspective of industrial transfer, the development of energy and chemical industry plays an active role in Central Asia, and the dissemination to Shaanxi is a process of overall and partial localization, which requires continuous attention.
Based on the above analysis, in order to promote Shaanxi's rapid and stable economic growth, it is necessary to make full use of its geographical location advantages, unite all forces that can be united, use all available resources, strengthen inter-regional cooperation, continuously optimize the industrial structure, and complement each other. At the same time, it will continue to deepen political and cultural exchanges between countries, reduce regional division, promote economic integration and ensure stable economic growth in Shaanxi.
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中图分类号: | F269.27 |
开放日期: | 2019-06-20 |