近年来，受地缘政治冲突、气候异常等多重因素的叠加影响，全球能源价格飙升，欧美多国出现了“能源荒”，我国部分省份也出现了煤炭和电力等能源供应紧张的局面。在“碳达峰”“碳中和”的目标下，清洁能源尚未形成可靠替代，而能源领域出现的“去煤化”趋势一定程度上制约了煤炭供给，对我国煤炭应急物流能力提出了严峻的挑战。我国现有的煤炭应急物流体系不健全，在应急物流能力方面存在有效供给略有不足、监测预警机制不完善、储备基地布局分散、煤炭应急调运难度加大和监管统筹协调机制不合理等问题。基于“情景-响应”的应急物流方式更能精准地实现应急物流能力提升。因此本文对煤炭应急物流“情景-响应”路径和煤炭应急物流能力影响因素进行分析，以期更好地应对煤炭突发事件。

本文综合运用灾害系统理论、扎根理论和SEM模型对煤炭应急物流情景和煤炭应急物流能力展开研究。研究结果表明：（1）煤炭应急物流情景可以分为供应端情景和需求端应景情景，供应端情景包括煤炭生产类情景、煤炭供给类情景和煤炭运输类情景，需求端应景情景指煤炭消费类情景，基于响应行为差异性将煤炭应急物流能力（简称为CESC（Coal Emergency Supply capacity）划分为政府主导下煤炭应急物流能力（简称为GL-CESC（Government led-Coal Emergency Supply capacity）和企业主导下煤炭应急物流能力(简称为EL-CESC（Enterprise led-Coal Emergency Supply capacity）)两种方式；（2）解析了煤炭应急物流 “情景-响应”的基本原理，并阐明了政府主导下的“情景-响应”原理和企业主导下的“情景-响应”原理；（3）政府主导下煤炭应急“情景-响应”路径包含供给侧响应、需求侧响应和激励措施，三者均对GL-CESC有直接影响，其中供给侧响应对其影响最大；（4）企业主导下煤炭应急“情景-响应”路径包含应急准备、指挥响应和善后恢复，三者均对EL-CESC有直接影响，其中指挥响应对其影响最大。本文的研究成果对政府指导煤炭应急工作具有重要参考价值，也为煤炭供应链节点企业提供应急行动指南。

In recent years, due to the superposition of geopolitical conflicts, climate anomalies and other multiple factors, global energy prices have soared, many countries in Europe and the United States have appeared "energy shortage", some provinces in China have also appeared coal and electricity and other energy supply shortage situation. Under the goal of "reaching the peak of carbon" and "carbon neutrality", clean energy has not yet formed a reliable alternative, and the trend of "decoal" in the energy field has restricted coal supply to a certain extent, posing a severe challenge to China's coal emergency logistics capacity. China's existing coal emergency logistics system is not perfect, and there are some problems in the emergency logistics capacity, such as a slight shortage of effective supply, imperfect monitoring and early warning mechanism, scattered reserve base layout, increasing difficulty of coal emergency transportation and unreasonable supervision and coordination mechanism. The emergency logistics mode based on "scenario-response" can improve the emergency logistics capability more accurately. Therefore, this paper analyzes the "scenario-response" path of coal emergency logistics and the influencing factors of coal emergency logistics capability in order to better cope with coal emergencies.

This paper comprehensively uses disaster system theory, grounded theory and SEM model to study coal emergency logistics scenario and coal emergency logistics capability. The results show that: (1) Coal emergency logistics scenarios can be divided into supply-side scenarios and demand-side scenarios. Supply-side scenarios include coal production scenarios, coal supply scenarios and coal transportation scenarios, and demand-side scenarios refer to coal consumption scenarios. Based on the differences in response behavior, Coal Emergency Supply capacity (CESC) is divided into government-led Coal Emergency logistics capacity (GL-CESC) Supply capacity) and Enterprise led Coal Emergency Supply capacity (referred to as EL-CESC (Enterprise LEd-Coal Emergency Supply Capacity)). (2) The basic principle of "scenario-response" of coal emergency logistics is analyzed, and the "scenario-response" principle under the government and the "scenario-response" principle under the enterprise is expounded; (3) The government-led "scenario-response" path for coal emergency includes supply-side response, demand-side response and incentive measures, all of which have a direct impact on GL-CESC, among which supply-side response has the greatest impact; (4) The enterprise-led "scenario-response" path for coal emergency includes emergency preparedness, command response and rehabilitation, all of which have a direct impact on EL-CESC, among which command response has the greatest impact. The research results of this paper have important reference value for the government to guide the coal emergency work, and also provide emergency action guidelines for the nodal enterprises of the coal supply chain.